Definitely it's good news. At least they are working on your application. What's your VO and COR?The last time I checked (July), my eligibility was "not started"
Definitely it's good news. At least they are working on your application. What's your VO and COR?The last time I checked (July), my eligibility was "not started"
Ottawa. AOR 30 November, 2020Definitely it's good news. At least they are working on your application. What's your VO and COR?
“conducting additional verification” - Where is this note? In eligibility or criminality.
It usually refers to additional checks that may be required based on your application and your details. It can range from consultations with other agencies, foreign governments, provinces etc.
Nothing to be concerned about just by these statements, they are not out of the norm. Instead request your GCMS notes for clarity.@legalfalcon Thank you for your response. It wasn’t on my notes. I got to know through an MP inquiry. An MP of the province I intend to live in made an enquiry on my behalf and IRCC got back to her with those details. Criminality still in progress. Nothing was said about security or eligibility. What are your thoughts once again? Thanks
Not sure where you are hearing who is a priority because IRCC has not sent out any such priority list.Hello @legalfalcon I have been RFV since March 2021. My medicals expired and got extended at the beginning of November 2021 but still no PPR. I've heard that FSW outland are not a priority at this point, is this true? As I am seeing a lot of PNPs with similar timeline receiving visas.
It is usually during eligibility, but if your application has been pending for a long time and all stages have been passed, it can be asked before finalizing the application to ensure that no additional documents such as PCC are required based on any changes to your profile or any additional checks need to be done.Hi @legalfalcon. At what stage IRCC usually asks for Schedule A (IMM 5669)? Is it after passing eligibility?
Hello there,Not sure where you are hearing who is a priority because IRCC has not sent out any such priority list.
RVF is just an eligiblity note. It does not mean that your application has been approved. See your security status in your GCMS notes.
I hope that this is the case for you but I am in a similar position, AOR 1 Nov 2020 FSW-O, and medical was updated to passed on 19 Nov 2021, about 6 weeks after it expired, and nothing since. I have seen others with similar updates. It is definitely good news that your file is being reviewed but unfortunately doesn't seem to mean that PPR is coming imminently. The trend of PPR after medical extension doesn't seem to be happening anymore. It seems that they are extending medicals and then we are going back in the queue. Who knows though, anything can happen@N95 it means IRCC has extended your medicals, you can expect a PPR soon based on the current trends.
Thanks for taking the time out and analyzing, @VVV62Hi everyone.
I've got a message in a WatsApp group about this message on this forum, and evoked some thoughts of mine concerning the theme.
So, the table #1
Monthnumber of ITAs for "no program specified"
(in applications)the number of COPRs issued for FSW applicants
(in people)FSW backlog number of ITAs for CEC
(in applications)the number of COPRs issued for CEC applicants
(in people)CEC backlog Jan, 2020 6,800 ? 0 Feb, 2020 8000, ? 0 Mar, 2020 3,900 ? 3,232 April, 2020 0 ? 9,287 May, 2020 0 ? 6,886 Jun, 2020 0 ? 7,067 Jul, 2020 3,900 ? 3,343 Aug, 2020 3,900 ? 3,300 Sep, 2020 12600, ? 0 Oct, 2020 4,500 ? 0 Nov, 2020 14,500 ? 0 Dec, 2020 10,000 ? 0 Jan, 2021 0 1271 9,376 4,456 Feb, 2021 0 761 27,332 5,594 Mar, 2021 0 381 5,000 8,383 Apr, 2021 0 420 17000, 6,860 May, 2021 0 578 11,945 5,792 Jun, 2021 0 996 12,000 16,727 Jul, 2021 0 619 9,000 16,039 Aug, 2021 0 715 6,000 16,363 Sep, 2021 0 468 2,000 14,364 Oct, 2021 0 586 51,147 0 14,282 48,225 Nov, 2021 0 ? ? 0 ? ? Dec, 2021 0 ? ? ? ? ? In total: 68,100 6,795+(Nov+Dec) <51,147 132,768+(Dec) 108,860+(Nov+Dec) <48,225
Generally, we all should take into account that the number of ITAs doesn't give us the number of people, only the number of applications.
So, let me assume, that there are 1.5 ppl per application. In the meantime, let's assume that ALL of "no program specified" ITA receivers were FSW. So, the approximate number of people invited via 2020-2021 draws may be:
Table #2
I personally think that the assumption of 1.5 ppl per application is lower that the real numbers. But let me use this for further explanation of my point of view. Neverless, the only things that matter are the size of the FSW and CEC backlog in Oct, 2021, and the unknown number of COPRs that were issued in Nov-Dec.
In total: 68,100 6,795+(Nov+Dec) <51,147 132,768+(Dec) 108,860+(Nov+Dec) <48,225 In total (in people): 102,150 199,152
So, here are my thoughts:
Let's talk about the aforementioned link to the assumption that "Ottawa has gotten through most of the ‘already approved’ applications."
1) As we all know, IRCC stopped issueing COPRs to outland applicants, but highly likely its officers were continuing the verification processess until the very last stage. My assumption is that about 90% of all outland applications older that 12 months had already been approved.
2) So, for FSW I see the situation that way: about 90% of all applications in the FSW backlog have the "already approved" status. The only deccelerating factor are fresh Re-Medical Police Clearance reports.
3) Taking into account that going through the last finalizing stage is much faster than through the whole assessment process, I think that smaller officer teams could complete this task pretty fast without shifting other officers from the CEC finalizing team. This could explain the impressive increment of COPRs issued to CEC applicants throughout the second half of 2021.
So, I think that the FSW finalizing team is small and they focus on approved applications.
The CEC finalizing team tries to clear the CEC backlog and..... And only God know what IRCC will do when it's happen.
4) As I wrote here, my prediction is that after finishing the CEC backlog, IRCC will divide its forces to shift both the FSW and PNP teams.
Concerning FSW:
5) According to this data in Table #2, I think that about a third/half of all FSW applicants were the Inland ones, the vast majority of whom received COPRs in 2020.
6) The increment of COPRs we saw in November can be explained by the order to finalize the "already approved" applications. In the meantime, we have the same chance that it was just the re-assignment of IRCC officers from CEC finalizing team to the FSW one. We'll find it out only if we get the stats for November.
7) I've made several predictions of what will happen in 2022, and I continue thinking that the FSW backlog will be cleared between March and May 2022. Full calculations are given here.
Concerning CEC:
8) My assumption given here remains the same: there are 2 options when the CEC backlog will have been cleared:
- by Feb, 2022 (if the number of COPRs issued to CEC applicants remains the same for November and December)
- by May, 2022 (if some officers were shifted from CEC to FSW)
9) At the present moment, CEC iz ded. It's easy to see the declining trend throughout the second half of 2021. So, I am not sure when IRCC will resume CEC draws. I have 2 hypotheses of the possible future:
- 1st hypothesis - I assume that IRCC is interested in currently employed foreigners who are capable to apply for the TR to PR program. So, when the CEC backlog is cleared, IRCC may re-assign forces to clear the FSW and PNP backlogs. And when half of total EE backlog is cleared, IRCC will resume CEC draws, as it promised. And I think the earliest point in time for that will be ~summer 2022.
- 2nd hypothesis - Since CEC iz ded, IRCC will probably send ITAs to CEC candidates via "no program specified" draws. And the number of such ITAs will be relatively small.
I don't think that the number of ITAs for CEC applicants will be high in 2022 because of the issue I explained here. But that is just my prediction. IRCC, in its turn, can act illogically.
10) For now, the best tactic for IRCC is to maintain the 15k COPRs monthly rate.
A few side thoughts:
- I think that one day the "already approved" applications ends, so the COPR montly stats will fall since IRCC officers will have to verify applications with a lesser number of assessment stages passed. In the meantime, the backlog will be considerably smaller to compensate the fall by shifting workforce from one team to another.
- For having a much clearer picture, we need the Nov-Dec stats.
- Sean Fraser's mandate letter could clarify what to expect in 2022.
- I hope Omicron wouldn't affect the whole trend. Of course, for now, it causes some transportation and landing quarantine problems. But the chance is high that in a few months, the flight bans may be lifted if no one dies of this new strain. I'm a different kind of doctor... So, please, take into account that my point of view is quite speculative concerning the COVID situation. The most dramatic moment for me personally is the fact that I cannot get a shot of a WHO approved vaccine in my country because ALL foreign-made vaccines are banned here.
- I know almost nothing concerning the paper based PNPs and what % of the total amount of PNP applicants they are.
- Everything written above are just my thoughts based on known data. Unfortunately, IRCC's processes and stats aren't transparent, so I cannot give you more that just my very approximate calculations and imprecise assumptions.
I made several mistakes. Let me recalculate some pointsThanks for taking the time out and analyzing, @VVV62
Month | number of ITAs for "no program specified" (in applications) | the number of COPRs issued for FSW applicants (in people) | FSW backlog | number of ITAs for CEC (in applications) | the number of COPRs issued for CEC applicants (in people) | CEC backlog |
Jan, 2020 | 6,800 | 0 | ||||
Feb, 2020 | 8000, | 0 | ||||
Mar, 2020 | 3,900 | 3,232 | ||||
April, 2020 | 0 | 9,287 | ||||
May, 2020 | 0 | 6,886 | ||||
Jun, 2020 | 0 | 7,067 | ||||
Jul, 2020 | 3,900 | 3,343 | ||||
Aug, 2020 | 3,900 | 3,300 | ||||
Sep, 2020 | 12600, | 0 | ||||
Oct, 2020 | 4,500 | 0 | ||||
Nov, 2020 | 14,500 | 0 | ||||
Dec, 2020 | 10,000 | 0 | ||||
Jan, 2021 | 0 | 1271 | 9,376 | 4,456 | ||
Feb, 2021 | 0 | 761 | 27,332 | 5,594 | ||
Mar, 2021 | 0 | 381 | 5,000 | 8,383 | ||
Apr, 2021 | 0 | 420 | 17000, | 6,860 | ||
May, 2021 | 0 | 578 | 11,945 | 5,792 | ||
Jun, 2021 | 0 | 996 | 12,000 | 16,727 | ||
Jul, 2021 | 0 | 619 | 9,000 | 16,039 | ||
Aug, 2021 | 0 | 715 | 6,000 | 16,363 | ||
Sep, 2021 | 0 | 468 | 2,000 | 14,364 | ||
Oct, 2021 | 0 | 586 | 51,147 | 0 | 14,282 | 48,225 |
Nov, 2021 | 0 | ? | ? | 0 | ? | ? |
Dec, 2021 | 0 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
In total: | 68,100 | 6,795+(Nov+Dec) | <51,147 | 132,768+(Dec) | 108,860+(Nov+Dec) | <48,225 |
In total: | 68,100 | 6,795+(Nov+Dec) | <51,147 | 132,768+(Dec) | 108,860+(Nov+Dec) | <48,225 |
In total (in people): | 102,150 | 199,152 |