Looking at the spreadsheet, PAL is the strongest indicator that a positive decision (DM1) is looming. Without crunching the numbers looks like PAL -> PPR/Portal 1 is usually a few days away, generally under a month but sometimes as much as 3 months. Rarely is there an ADR after PAL - from what I see ADRs are made if you later disclose an update such as a child/marriage etc. I'm rooting for my "PAL"
@SCW to get it as soon as this week

. Portal 1 is when you can stop worrying IMO because that's ultimately the approval of your application and you're at the finish line. The COPR/PR Card are mere formalities.