My ambitious attempt at trying to predict the number of ITAs for Jan. draw!!!

[patreya]

425 is a very high cutoff score. It will be 380 or 390.

We will know in 2 weeks time, but lets not get our hoes very high.

 

[hedonist10]

rare people will have score more than 480 without Canadian work experience or language skills in both English and french. people with Canadian work experience will be selected under CEC category.
Anybody with a score higher than 425 has fair chance of selection
good luck

 

[idefix]

1. Its not true that CIC will issue ITA only to those having a job offer and hence have a point over 600. There are no such statements from CIC.

2. True. They may consider the first draw to be a test of some sort and give only a handful of ITAs.

3. If they give a only a handful of ITAs like <500 then the minimum points may go over 500

4. I agree

You've got a good chance with 478. Even if not in the first draw, you'll definitely get in at the 2nd or 3rd draw.

Mine is 456

Another important point is that PNP is not working for most if not all provinces.

So above 600 will only come for people with job offers - and there aren't many LMIAs yet.

I agree first draws will be smaller because they need to test the system. But I think very few applicants will have over 500 points. A lot of CEC applicants don't have their ECA yet, so that will lower the scores as well.

 

[idefix]

+1 for your original post .. plus the sources of information ..

as far as predicting the score is concerned, we need to see spreadsheet as the most distributed source of information we have and everything except the count of entries is a realistic representation of EE applicants .. this is also verified by the fact that I was 10% 'standing from top' when there were 200 entries in SS, and 10% when there are over 400 entries (I am entry number 1)..

plus the spreadsheet has been active for over a month now so your calculation of number of entries per day is off the metric.. now what we can do is that divide the entries in some ranges such as following:
Lets say total applicants for EE in January draw will be
1. <5000
2. 5000-10000
3. >10000

going by your prediction that 3000 will be invited from first draw, here is what would be the cut off score for these three ranges:

range score selection conservative Score selection optimistic
< 5000 364 All
5000-10000 416 364
10000-15000 439 416
15000-30000 471 439
>30000 All ITAs will be consumed up by people with Job Offers/ PNPs as they represent 5-10% of entire sheet

Hey srbhrn,

Considering there were about 20.000 applications for FSW (under the CAP) and about 5.000 for FST for the entire year, I really doubt that there will be over 6.000 - 10.000 applicants for the first draw.

The real question, to me, is the size of the draw: will they issue 2.500 ITAs? 500? 100?

 

[hedonist10]

the applications under FSW were limited to some particular NOC only and that too with a cap........there are large number of applicants like myself who have waiting for their NOC to be in the list for past 5-6 years. Now as all NOC o A and B are eligible that is why am saying number of applicants even for first draw will be large

 

[idefix]

Great point that I hadn't considered! Indeed that may create a much larger number of applicants! +1

 

[hedonist10]

I have a couple of questions-
1. Does the total number given under Federal Skilled Workers (including Federal Skilled Trades)- 47000-51000 is for for principal applicants only or it includes the family also. If it includes families then the number of successful application under EOE will be about 20-25000
2. CEC has a intake threshold of 21-23000 in 2015. Would the people with Canadian Experience also be considered under the 47-51000 quota for Federal Skilled workers or they will compete for these 23000 seats first

Thanks

 

[idefix]

I have a couple of questions-
1. Does the total number given under Federal Skilled Workers (including Federal Skilled Trades)- 47000-51000 is for for principal applicants only or it includes the family also. If it includes families then the number of successful application under EOE will be about 20-25000
2. CEC has a intake threshold of 21-23000 in 2015. Would the people with Canadian Experience also be considered under the 47-51000 quota for Federal Skilled workers or they will compete for these 23000 seats first

Thanks

1. That's the million-dollar question. Nobody knows for sure. Considering they are talking about 280.000 people in 2015, then 50.000 would be only principal applicants.

2. That's a separate threshold. 50.000 + 25.000

 

[praneet87]

I have a couple of questions-
1. Does the total number given under Federal Skilled Workers (including Federal Skilled Trades)- 47000-51000 is for for principal applicants only or it includes the family also. If it includes families then the number of successful application under EOE will be about 20-25000
2. CEC has a intake threshold of 21-23000 in 2015. Would the people with Canadian Experience also be considered under the 47-51000 quota for Federal Skilled workers or they will compete for these 23000 seats first

Thanks

Well, answer for question #2 is that if you are eligible for CEC and FSW then you will be entered under CEC. And the answer for your question #1 is that 47,000 FSWs explicitly. So its 47000-51000 applicants. The total cap is some 300k. Go look it up.

 

[m_dewan33]

1. That's the million-dollar question. Nobody knows for sure. Considering they are talking about 280.000 people in 2015, then 50.000 would be only principal applicants.

2. That's a separate threshold. 50.000 + 25.000

1. That number is for principal applicants only and there's no doubt about that

 

[m_dewan33]

rare people will have score more than 480 without Canadian work experience or language skills in both English and french. people with Canadian work experience will be selected under CEC category.
Anybody with a score higher than 425 has fair chance of selection
good luck

Good point. Unless the the no. of ITA issued is less than 500, the lowest point shouldn't go over 450. So applicants with 425 or more can be optimistic

 

[hedonist10]

I think the 50,000 is total people under FSWP including principal applicants and family. Total people admitted under all programs will be 285000 (186000 Economic out of which 50,000 are FSWP, 68000 family and 30000 humanitarian).
Source- http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
So the successful candidates under FSWP will 25,000.
Based on the spreadsheet if we take out people with Canadian experience the highest score is 482 (excluding job offer and pnp). If a persons score is >=426 then he is in top 15%.
Say they select 1000 profiles in first draw and total number of profiles are 20,000 then the cutoff score will be around 471.
If total profiles are 10,000 and they select 1000 profiles then cutoff score is 450 based on our sample data.
This prediction for for first 1-2 draws only because after that pnp and job offer comes into play.
So overall people with score greater than 450 have fair chance in initial draws after that it will be very difficult even with scores close to 500 to get ITA

 

[praneet87]

I think the 50,000 is total people under FSWP including principal applicants and family. Total people admitted under all programs will be 285000 (186000 Economic out of which 50,000 are FSWP, 68000 family and 30000 humanitarian).
Source- http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
So the successful candidates under FSWP will 25,000.
Based on the spreadsheet if we take out people with Canadian experience the highest score is 482 (excluding job offer and pnp). If a persons score is >=426 then he is in top 15%.
Say they select 1000 profiles in first draw and total number of profiles are 20,000 then the cutoff score will be around 471.
If total profiles are 10,000 and they select 1000 profiles then cutoff score is 450 based on our sample data.
This prediction for for first 1-2 draws only because after that pnp and job offer comes into play.
So overall people with score greater than 450 have fair chance in initial draws after that it will be very difficult even with scores close to 500 to get ITA

OK. Everybody needs to understand this. This change has been made only because PNPs and LMIA Full time permanent workers were getting backlogged. Just think of it this way. If you could make that 67 score back when it was 67 score system. You will make the cut now.

The only thing that is a major factor is the number of applicants / the total quota. That is all. If the number of people applying is 75,000. Then everyone who qualifies for FSW / CEC will get in. There is no minimum score. If your score is 300 and you qualify for FSW or CEC you will get in if the number of applicants = total number of quota. Now we have 51000 FSW and 23000 CEC. Historically 12000-13000 people applied for CEC with the cap getting full in October/November. So this means they drastically increased the cap to take into account people from backlog and new applicants so almost everyone who applies in CEC will get through.

 

[hedonist10]

I can understand your point.........but my calculation is for people without canadian experience......

 

[m_dewan33]

I think the 50,000 is total people under FSWP including principal applicants and family. Total people admitted under all programs will be 285000 (186000 Economic out of which 50,000 are FSWP, 68000 family and 30000 humanitarian).
Source- http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
So the successful candidates under FSWP will 25,000.
Based on the spreadsheet if we take out people with Canadian experience the highest score is 482 (excluding job offer and pnp). If a persons score is >=426 then he is in top 15%.
Say they select 1000 profiles in first draw and total number of profiles are 20,000 then the cutoff score will be around 471.
If total profiles are 10,000 and they select 1000 profiles then cutoff score is 450 based on our sample data.
This prediction for for first 1-2 draws only because after that pnp and job offer comes into play.
So overall people with score greater than 450 have fair chance in initial draws after that it will be very difficult even with scores close to 500 to get ITA

This definitely clear things up. +1 for you.

If 50000 includes principal applicant as well their accompanying spouse, dependents then there will be a drastic reduction in the number of ITAs.

Given the new figures I'm reluctant to forecast the no. of ITA to go over 1500 in the first draw