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Let's Connect for 15th draw

Lammawitch

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Dec 21, 2014
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usman_14pk said:
Make sense to some extent because in this way they won't be able to achieve 2015 target. Let's see.
The 2015 target has very very likely already been met (see 2014 & before backlog).
 

Tocanadawego

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Apr 19, 2015
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13-02-2017
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04-03-2017
Draw today would make me very very happy, but somehow I think that is not happening :(
 

Lammawitch

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dan_and said:
I can only reemphasise this. People don't seem to understand it.

1. The vast majortiy of ITAs received from ~July 2015 count against the 2016 target, NOT 2015. This is because immigration targets are based on people landing in Canada (admissions), and someone receiving an ITA now would have a hard time landing in Canada by then even if they are already in Canada (~1 month to prepare the application plus ~4-6 months processing times takes it well into 2016 for PPR).

2. There is a massive backlog for FSW applications. I urge everyone to take a look at the processing times for paper applications:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/times/perm/skilled-fed.asp

Many visa offices have projected processing times of 24 months or more. This means that a significant number of FSW admissions will still come from paper applications during 2016, and quite possibly into 2017.

3. CIC will not significantly increase the number of ITAs until the backlog is cleared because they don't want to overshoot their trarget. Don't expect a significant drop in average scores for some time to come.
+1. And I've also noted your very good explanations of this over the last few months. I tried to point this out for a while too, but gave up because I decided that some people not only don't seem able to understand, they don't want to. :(.

Just as they don't seem/want to understand that the immigration target numbers also include dependants, not just principal applicants ...
 

singh100

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Mar 12, 2015
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Lammawitch said:
+1. And I've also noted your very good explanations of this over the last few months. I tried to point this out for a while too, but gave up because I decided that some people not only don't seem able to understand, they don't want to. :(.

Just as they don't seem/want to understand that the immigration target numbers also include dependants, not just principal applicants ...
Processing time mention in the cic web is the maximum months but in real whoever has applied on of before Jan 2014 has already got their PR. Now as far as know, since i have been in the queue for 2014 and got my application returned in Feb 2015 and then applied for EE 2015, there will not be more than 1000 application pending from 2014 backlog. Anyway this (EE) has lucky draw for every one just like H1B except point system so no one knows what happens next but mid-year report clearly displays that this trend for draw is only preferring low wages worker with LMIA or more qualified bachelor, however they are still very far from the target num for 2015.
 

Hansdza

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I dunno why but I always want to see some real data of ITA issued and Application made. The fluctuation of minimum score (other than the first 3 to 4 draw) seems suspicious too me. Just want to make sure that those ITAs are for "genuine" application and not for people who are just trolling with the system. Going back and forth to the pool

PNP has maximum limit and so does IELTS score. To my understanding the score should be gradually lower over time. In the past i believe low skilled worker overcrowded PR application causing backlog. But now that shouldn't be the case.

Just sayin'
 

Lammawitch

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singh100 said:
Processing time mention in the cic web is the maximum months but in real whoever has applied on of before Jan 2014 has already got their PR. Now as far as know, since i have been in the queue for 2014 and got my application returned in Feb 2015 and then applied for EE 2015, there will not be more than 1000 application pending from 2014 backlog. Anyway this (EE) has lucky draw for every one just like H1B except point system so no one knows what happens next but mid-year report clearly displays that this trend for draw is only preferring low wages worker with LMIA or more qualified bachelor, however they are still very far from the target num for 2015.
I rest my case. See:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/data-release/2014-Q4/index.asp

How on earth do you see only 1000 applications in the backlog??
 

nonnemacher

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I wish CIC would have the 15th draw today, but I don`t think it will happen. Probably next week or the 28th.
With only 376 I don`t believe I have any chance this year, but I`m always excited on Fridays to see if there`s a new round of invitation.

Good luck for those who have 450 more or less.
 

Lammawitch

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Dec 21, 2014
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Hansdza said:
I dunno why but I always want to see some real data of ITA issued and Application made. The fluctuation of minimum score (other than the first 3 to 4 draw) seems suspicious too me. Just want to make sure that those ITAs are for "genuine" application and not for people who are just trolling with the system. Going back and forth to the pool

PNP has maximum limit and so does IELTS score. To my understanding the score should be gradually lower over time. In the past i believe low skilled worker overcrowded PR application causing backlog. But now that shouldn't be the case.

Just sayin'
Have you seen this?
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp
 

Lammawitch

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Dec 21, 2014
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nonnemacher said:
I wish CIC would have the 15th draw today, but I don`t think it will happen. Probably next week or the 28th.
With only 376 I don`t believe I have any chance this year, but I`m always excited on Fridays to see if there`s a new round of invitation.

Good luck for those who have 450 more or less.
+1 for your positive (& realistic) attitude :).

( I don't *like* posting information that brings people's hopes down, I do believe in "keeping it real".)
 

Hansdza

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Lammawitch said:
Have you seen this?
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp
Thanks Lammawitch

Please correct if my reading is wrong.

Up to July
invitation Issued 12,928
Application received 7,528

Lets sat all 3000 people for the last two round didn't apply yet. (which is unlikely). They still have 2400 missing.

That's a quite big gap.. Any possible explanation for this?
 

Wisper

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Aug 2, 2014
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Hansdza said:
Thanks Lammawitch

Please correct if my reading is wrong.

Up to July
invitation Issued 12,928
Application received 7,528

Lets sat all 3000 people for the last two round didn't apply yet. (which is unlikely). They still have 2400 missing.

That's a quite big gap.. Any possible explanation for this?
Maybe some people got theinvitation but took no actions, neither accept nor decline

Just gueesing
 

Lammawitch

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Dec 21, 2014
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Hansdza said:
Thanks Lammawitch

Please correct if my reading is wrong.

Up to July
invitation Issued 12,928
Application received 7,528

Lets sat all 3000 people for the last two round didn't apply yet. (which is unlikely). They still have 2400 missing.

That's a quite big gap.. Any possible explanation for this?
For starters, the last *three* rounds are not included in this data. So forget about them.

My unscientific & totally objective opinion is that a lot of applicants have declined ITA at least once, and have/or will re-enter the pool, for whatever reason ( there was a lot of confusion back in January/February about points eligibility); and, the others were, at the time the report was issued, gathering documents etc to apply.

But honestly, your guess is as good as mine.
 

ggupta83

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Lammawitch said:
Have you seen this?
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp
Based on this data, CIC still has 419 K inventory to process (backlog). They have been getting about over 250 K as new applications. They have met their 2015 target (as suggested by few members) & 2016 targets are still not defined.

So that tells me there is no way they are going to go below 450 any time soon
 

purplesnow

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Lammawitch said:
I rest my case. See:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/data-release/2014-Q4/index.asp

How on earth do you see only 1000 applications in the backlog??
+1 for this, hadn't seen this data release and it really needs to be pinned.
400,000+ backlogged applications in Jan 2015 is huge and knowing this will maybe help people understand why CIC haven't been inviting everyone. They really could have met their targets for at least 2015 & 2016 without issuing any EE invites.
2016 targets will probably be released around October, keeping in mind its an election year and the Canadian economy has been in a bit of trouble the last few months, along with the backlog, it *might* be a lower target.