June 2018 AOR - join here
- Thread starter andy108
- Start date
Little late @Hannahvet for you 
%age statuses by month as per Immitracker. Based on my past experience on reaction to this post will start with following disclaimer points
Let's hope for a good December for June guys. In any case I don't expect that we will see 30% more PPRs in December so that 80% figure won't be met for June for sure.
%age statuses by month as per Immitracker. Based on my past experience on reaction to this post will start with following disclaimer points
- Yes the immitracker data may not be accurate. As we all know not everyone updates the data there. But I think it is okay. In practical world decisions are taken everyday based on a sample of a data set.
- If you feel - “Oh I could list N reasons the data is not the right sample" … well yeah I know that BUT unless someone can give us better data, this is all we have. So let’s make peace with it.
- Immitracker ignores inactive cases. And yes it does impact %ages. However, I think immitracker is correct in ignoring inactive cases.
- I stand corrected on above. On 9th October there were a lot of cases which went inactive and hence were messing up the %age trends. I was not tracking active cases on regular basis as the numbers didn't change much. But to keep consistency I have now used active case number as on 21st Sep (as that is the only week I had captured number of active cases)
- Having said all of above, I think this data can still be used to see trends which are useful. The %ages may not be accurate but overall movement is definitely indicative of progress
- And lastly, if you disagree just ignore!
- June had one of the best weeks in recent times. I know it doesn't feel that way based on other cases pending at Sydney. But, I think the flood we saw for CEC Inland on Monday may be a major contributor.
- July is as slow as June ... and my guess is July may see relatively more delays compared to June in case June is given more preference in December over July cases. In terms of %ages there is hardly any difference between June and July at same time period.
- August is a winner!! August guys are lucky. Look at their %age completion at end of 3rd month. June was at 18% and July was at 19%. August is at 20%!! And if you look at Immitracker August has done 20% at a much higher base compared to June and July.
- One possible reason is probably because November was a month of 5 weeks vs 4 weeks that we had before. So that helps with higher percentage.
- Let's see how they progress now onwards.
- One possible reason is probably because November was a month of 5 weeks vs 4 weeks that we had before. So that helps with higher percentage.
- September is another proof of real slowdown .. At end of 2 months June was 14%, July was 11% and August was 11%. Compared to this September is at just 3%. September also saw MEP move from about 12/14 days post AOR to ~28 days post AOR. So a little slowdown was expected. But this is too much.
Let's hope for a good December for June guys. In any case I don't expect that we will see 30% more PPRs in December so that 80% figure won't be met for June for sure.
Hi Prashant. Do you have any idea how long security check takes and who falls under security screening?
Hey @absad if the security has started already, it all depends on various factors mostly quantum and location ofof internation travel in last 10 years.
If it is yet to start. It depends on the agent's mood.
I too am waiting for security to start.
Thanks mate. On 15th December my six month is ending. My consultant says to keep patience. Only thing I know I am in IP2 since 1st November. Does it mean that my criminality and all passed except security? Looking forward to hearing from you.Hey @absad if the security has started already, it all depends on various factors mostly quantum and location ofof internation travel in last 10 years.
If it is yet to start. It depends on the agent's mood.
I too am waiting for security to start.
Security will only start once your eligibility is reviewed by senior officer. It may be waiting in the queue to be reviewed. Once a final call has been taken on eligibility your security will start. For most cases security takes from few hours to few weeks unless there are some red flags and your application goes to security screening where the wait would be endless.Hey @absad if the security has started already, it all depends on various factors mostly quantum and location ofof internation travel in last 10 years.
If it is yet to start. It depends on the agent's mood.
I too am waiting for security to start.
Earlier it was real quick from final review to security and then ppr but these days applications are even getting stucked for months after moving to ip2.
Only option is to wait and be patient. Things will definitely work out. Good luck
Hello all...i applied for gcms notes on the 30th oct but still did not receive it..its over a month now..mshould i wait for a couple of more days or trigger a reminder mail to getgcmsbuddy
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Thanks for this.. u are awesomeLittle late @Hannahvet for you
%age statuses by month as per Immitracker. Based on my past experience on reaction to this post will start with following disclaimer points
- Yes the immitracker data may not be accurate. As we all know not everyone updates the data there. But I think it is okay. In practical world decisions are taken everyday based on a sample of a data set.
- If you feel - “Oh I could list N reasons the data is not the right sample" … well yeah I know that BUT unless someone can give us better data, this is all we have. So let’s make peace with it.
- Immitracker ignores inactive cases. And yes it does impact %ages. However, I think immitracker is correct in ignoring inactive cases.
- I stand corrected on above. On 9th October there were a lot of cases which went inactive and hence were messing up the %age trends. I was not tracking active cases on regular basis as the numbers didn't change much. But to keep consistency I have now used active case number as on 21st Sep (as that is the only week I had captured number of active cases)
- Having said all of above, I think this data can still be used to see trends which are useful. The %ages may not be accurate but overall movement is definitely indicative of progress
- And lastly, if you disagree just ignore!
My guess is sooner or later CIC will have to update their website and change that 6 month number. It will get more and more difficult to justify that number in 2019.
- June had one of the best weeks in recent times. I know it doesn't feel that way based on other cases pending at Sydney. But, I think the flood we saw for CEC Inland on Monday may be a major contributor.
- July is as slow as June ... and my guess is July may see relatively more delays compared to June in case June is given more preference in December over July cases. In terms of %ages there is hardly any difference between June and July at same time period.
- August is a winner!! August guys are lucky. Look at their %age completion at end of 3rd month. June was at 18% and July was at 19%. August is at 20%!! And if you look at Immitracker August has done 20% at a much higher base compared to June and July.
- One possible reason is probably because November was a month of 5 weeks vs 4 weeks that we had before. So that helps with higher percentage.
- Let's see how they progress now onwards.
- September is another proof of real slowdown .. At end of 2 months June was 14%, July was 11% and August was 11%. Compared to this September is at just 3%. September also saw MEP move from about 12/14 days post AOR to ~28 days post AOR. So a little slowdown was expected. But this is too much.
Let's hope for a good December for June guys. In any case I don't expect that we will see 30% more PPRs in December so that 80% figure won't be met for June for sure.
Where are you located BTW? Your usage of 'Eh' sounds like you are trying to make fun of Canadians. Beware CIC might have some sleeper cells in this group.Ok guys and gals!
Another maintenance alert on the CIC website:
Quote
This online service will be unavailable from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. Eastern time, on Tuesday December 4, 2018, in order to perform system maintenance.
Unquote
I don't know why I get my hopes up EVERYTIME a maintenance message goes up, but I guess that's just me
Realistically, its just a system overhaul, so if you're unable to get through the system in the given timelines, at least you know why eh
And they will find his case and refuse it with comment "Said 'eh' on forumsWhere are you located BTW? Your usage of 'Eh' sounds like you are trying to make fun of Canadians. Beware CIC might have some sleeper cells in this group.
"I hope they do! We need SOMEONE to listen to us - even if on the pretext of interrogationWhere are you located BTW? Your usage of 'Eh' sounds like you are trying to make fun of Canadians. Beware CIC might have some sleeper cells in this group.
I'm from India. Currently based in Mauritius...What about you and the gf?Where are you located BTW? Your usage of 'Eh' sounds like you are trying to make fun of Canadians. Beware CIC might have some sleeper cells in this group.