Astro.CA
Hero Member
- Jan 21, 2015
- 12
- Category........
- Visa Office......
- Sydney
- NOC Code......
- 2242
- Job Offer........
- Pre-Assessed..
- App. Filed.......
- 04-06-2014
- AOR Received.
- 16-07-2014
- Med's Request
- 22-01-2015
- Med's Done....
- 26-01-2015
- Passport Req..
- 09-02-2016
- VISA ISSUED...
- 07-03-2016
- LANDED..........
- 31-03-2016
bbsos said:That's why the estimated processing time is useless with the word "average". I didn't trust that at all from day one. Even if it's a true statistics and not a random number they throw up on there, it is one of their naive tricks to cheat. Some elementary school math here for example:
Applicant A's case took 8 months
Applicant B's case took 15 months
Applicant C's case took 16 months
Applicant D's case took 17 months
The result: 8+15+16+17=56, then 56/4=14 months
Means that by giving priority to only 25% of cases (A) and delaying the rest 75% (B,C,D), the average doesn't look as bad. With the power of average plus the 80% buffer (they can exclude the most delayed 20% obviously), they now got much more time for making delays and still generate a still okay statistics.
Examples could have gone more dramatic. Put it another way: one billionaire and 99 homeless people, on average, 100 millionaires
So you can see, even if our cases are delayed several more months, the average 80% processing time could still stay as 14 or 15 months.
thanks for the analysis, so by month 16/ 17 (which is actually October/ November) the rest of us should be finalized?