July draw predictions
- Thread starter aommnd
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Yes, that unfortunately is an option. I just wish they gave us some heads up about what they intend to do. But maybe they don't know at this point.
Yes, reading between the lines, at least what it looks to me, is "EE stays, but with some changes". Which doesn't tell us much at this point.
I was informed here that CEC never had those strict list of only a few 20-50 eligible NOCs, so that, plus stuff from the mandate about keeping international graduates does not seem to me like NOCs will be so limited for CEC. But I might be wrong.
What did I tell all of you guys? https://www.cicnews.com/2022/05/canada-planning-major-express-entry-changes-0525566.html#gs.1h6g35
It's happening. EE is set to have occupation/credential-specific draws.
It's happening. EE is set to have occupation/credential-specific draws.
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We knew. Is there more info somewhere on the official websites? (I doubt it).
We don't know if it affects CEC or how.
Also, seems that some draws will be language-based (for French speakers).
there is a possibility they will make fsw draws noc-specific and cec draws general. this would make much more sense. in Canada candidates are already employed and make contributions to the economy. outland candidates should be selected based on their potential value
I think They will go with FSW draw - Logic behind that - my speculation - as they already gave 18 months extension to PGWP so they can conduct FSW draws.
There is a chance since new policy does not cover students from Sep 2021- Dec 2021 so they might do alternate draws between CEC and FSW.
OR
Few draws of CEC in between - again we need to look at good side which is resumption of draws.
this 6 months they need to issue 36-40k ITAs to meet 75K target for 2023 so we are looking at 3000 ITAs per draw. Number of draws will be 13 this year.
I got 13 based of old biweekly trend - in august 3 draws rest of the month 2 draw each.
so score will eventually come down to 480 by end of October. if you look at the pool size based of that you can calculate 3k per draw 13 rounds.
Note: these are just speculations (its not concrete so do not take my words) this is just based of what numbers are telling and applying that to get some idea when we can expect ITA.
Thank You.
There is a chance since new policy does not cover students from Sep 2021- Dec 2021 so they might do alternate draws between CEC and FSW.
OR
Few draws of CEC in between - again we need to look at good side which is resumption of draws.
this 6 months they need to issue 36-40k ITAs to meet 75K target for 2023 so we are looking at 3000 ITAs per draw. Number of draws will be 13 this year.
I got 13 based of old biweekly trend - in august 3 draws rest of the month 2 draw each.
so score will eventually come down to 480 by end of October. if you look at the pool size based of that you can calculate 3k per draw 13 rounds.
Note: these are just speculations (its not concrete so do not take my words) this is just based of what numbers are telling and applying that to get some idea when we can expect ITA.
Thank You.
I think this would only apply for FSW. FSW comprises most of EE and most of CEC are Canadian graduates. Fraser said he wouldn't want to further excavate labor shortage so it doesn't make sense to let CEC people deported. Also his mandate letter says to find a way for Canadian graduates to transit into PR. Either way I'm hoping my job is in demand .
The NOC specific draws or change in EE that you are talking about is not going to implement by July or August. we are looking at Early next year so this year I think 6 months draws will continue as normal.
reason behind this is if you look at legislative process to pass bill it takes long time. at the moment bill is in discussion mode just completed first reading now it will go through two more readings which takes time as it involves lot of steps like amendments, then proposing those changes again then members will vote then it will go to Royal assent stage for final approval. after all this IRCC will take time to implement it within the system, it is not something to get done in 2-3 months so chill its not coming this year at least.
so Indeed its good news!
The NOC specific draws or change in EE that you are talking about is not going to implement by July or August. we are looking at Early next year so this year I think 6 months draws will continue as normal.
reason behind this is if you look at legislative process to pass bill it takes long time. at the moment bill is in discussion mode just completed first reading now it will go through two more readings which takes time as it involves lot of steps like amendments, then proposing those changes again then members will vote then it will go to Royal assent stage for final approval. after all this IRCC will take time to implement it within the system, it is not something to get done in 2-3 months so chill its not coming this year at least.
so Indeed its good news!
This is very wrong logic.
The legislative process you've described doesn't apply to changes to immigration programs. This legislative process only would need to be followed if the government wanted to make changes to actual laws (e.g. changing the residency requirement for citizenship). However the same is not the case for changes to the Express Entry program (e.g. NOC specific draws or anything else). IRCC can simply make these changes tomorrow, if they want to. There's no requirement to take them through the legislative process in the form of a bill because the immigration programs aren't laws.
I guess you should first get the facts - Bill C-19 has been introduced in the parliament which outlines these changes and yes it has to go through Legislative process - (refer ask Kubeir videos or any Immigration attorneys Tweets or even CIC news article). I am pasting link below of CIC news article.
its not program they are talking about creating categories in the EE system which is basically certain NOC specific groups to be created under EE system, to make such changes it has to be passed as law. that is why its amended under bill C-19, even there is parliament session video where it has been discussed after stage 1 seating done.
Canada planning major Express Entry changes | Canada Immigration News (cicnews.com)
I hope it clarifies your doubt.
I think you are right on this. I have been reading around about this and it doesn't seem like they can willy nilly make these changes.
That C-19 bill was just tabled recently so now it can be processed but most sources I have been reading seem to say it won't come before end of year or early next year. Not something that can be done immediately AFAIK
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