July draw predictions
- Thread starter aommnd
- Start date
Yes. It is just frustrating that they are not upfront about the changes they wish to introduce.
My wife's PGWP is expiring next April, and she is not eligible to extend it based on new policy. She is working and the employer wishes to give her a contract for the next year, but none of it can happen until she is invited. I do hope that the promise from the mandate letter about international students and retaining people who have graduated from Canadian universities and are working in Canada is true.
My wife even revised French and passed a French exam to increase points. We are currently at 483. I am to take an language test to push it eve further. Not sure what else we can do at this moment.
Yeah I do, but I'm not going to spoon feed it to you as that would take me more time than is worth the effort.
There is a perfectly valid reason to have NOC-specific draws: if Fraser can use EE to bring people working in in-demand NOCs in 6-month processing times versus 2-4 years' for PNP, why not? He may take the "most critical" skills required right now in Canada, say an exclusive cluster of "high priority" NOCs, and issue them invites to get them over here or keep them faster.
The PNPs would still have a very important role to play - they would take a broader set of in-demand NOCs or NOCs that are specific to the needs of there provinces (as they do currently), and people like me who are on existing work permits but have very low CRS for Express Entry.
If you do have a link, it would literally take less time to share it than to type this message. Which means that you don't want to share it, or that you don't have it. Which, fair, but don't pretend it's anything else.
In any case, CEC was never about specific NOCs so not sure if it would be a factor now. Fraser talked about retaining international students and recent graduates who are working in Canada so there is no indication that the NOC specific thing will include CEC candidates.
I feel - and this is just a guess - that they want to work toward some sort of a hybrid system, in which NOC might play a role, but other factors (such as Canadian experience, French language skills, etc.) will matter, too. I might be completely wrong about it, though. I admit I don't like the insecurity and lack of transparency over this.
Would they target only 20? 30? 50? NOCs and ignore everyone else? On one hand, what a way to cut the number of candidates and clear the system in a heartbeat. On the other, it does seem too "out of nowhere" and too huge of a change, especially since a lot of info that we are getting is about typical continuation of draws and Express Entry (for example, the prediction from the mandate letter about high CRS points when the draws resume). But they are known to introduce changes out of nowhere, so not sure what to think.
He doesn't have a list at all, because there is not.
The lists he googled are not official but some websites in the private sector.
They cannot be used to predict the government's move.
For example, if you search for jobs in-demand of last year, in the first 3 google results, like the 3 listed below, the top 1 is IT, 2nd is driver and the 3rd is nurse, then why last year's TR2PR pathway singled out only those in health care, which is the 3rd position, but not IT or driver which are in the 1st and 2nd position?
https://canadianvisa.org/blog/jobs/jobs-in-canada-for-2021
https://www.cicnews.com/2021/01/canadas-top-10-in-demand-jobs-for-2021-0117033.html#gs.0wb88u
https://www.universitymagazine.ca/canadian-jobs-that-is-in-demand-2021/
If I was a driver last year and raised hope to be invited because of the google results, wouldn't I be deeply frustrated?
I just found many ppl take their speculation for granted, and are complacent and condescending toward others based on that.
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Well done bud! YOU may be employable in Canada in a NOC A or 0 job because you have research skills! Now what you can do with that data is overlay is with StatsCan job vacancies figures across high level NOC groups and make your own judgements: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410032602
Of course they can't be used to predict the government's move, but when you see an insane amount of openings or a higher trend of openings in certain areas, you get an idea of what they could target.
PNP is for province specific needs. So the NOC lists for provinces are for where they have specific shortages in talent. The FSW NOC lists would be for country-wide. That's how it worked previously. The provinces will always still want the option of specifying their own in-demand lists. So if the NOC list happens for FSW/EE, there will likely be some matches to the provincial lists but they won't be identical.
OK, that makes sense I suppose, but would it mean completely adapting to this system or combining it with the existing thing? (Points).
Also, that NOC stuff was previously for FSW and not CEC, so are there indications that it would be introduced to CEC?
Yes, I found these links and many more, but none answer what you claimed to be able to tell based on needs, especially in terms of different NOCs, what would they considerd "need" (the absolute number of jobs or percentage?), what is a federal-wide shortage (if that is the one to be targeted), etc.
Also, why would this matter for CEC.
I'm not sure I understand your first question.
For your second question, as I mentioned to you previously, certain NOCs used to not qualify under CEC. In terms of what IRCC may do now, that's anyone's guess.
I'm really not sure what to tell you.
IRCC would have final determination to make any list of skills that it wants to target for NOC-specific draws. How they would differentiate between in-land (CEC) and outland (FSW) candidates within that NOC is anyone's guess. If anything, Fraser could make an all-program NOC-draw and provide CEC candidates with experience in chosen NOCs a CRS bonus.
All anyone else can do is speculate about what NOCs would be on that list based on public information pertaining to severe labour shortages. I mean, when the provinces have skills lists and StatsCan has a massive data set about job vacancies, I would call that a pretty credible starting point, but again all we can do is speculate and IRCC would determine which exact codes end up being selected.
You previously stated that your wife's PGWP is expiring next April and you have a 480+ CRS, and your inferences suggest that you're nervous and want the answers as to what this could be now. Quite clearly this is operational stuff that IRCC is keeping secret and is subject to finalization and the Minister's approval - Fraser can always change his mind/backtrack, so none of us would know until we do.
The first question is me wondering if they would completely focus on NOC only, or would they combine it with the existing system of being ranked by points. For example, specific NOC draws in addition to regular draws, or specific NOCs giving people more points.
It just feels too drastic to completely erase the existing system and make the most people ineligie but eh, they can do that I suppose. However, the memo and other things I've read seem to imply a continuation of EE with points, so I hope there would not be such a drastic change.
Yes, fair enough about certain occupations being ineligible for CEC, but the main NOC restrictions were in FSW so I hope they would not introduce that with CEC, especially with all the mandate talks about retaining international students and recent graduates.
Yes, indeed. I admit I was hoping for some more explicit document/list of in-demand jobs but it's true anything is speculation. Our search reveals that my wife's NOC is in demand in some provinces but not the others, because it is highly specialized NOC but also very diverse, with shortages but also without a huge number of openings or candidates.
The NOC is 4011 btw.
Again no-one knows.
However, what I can tell you is that drastic changes unfortunately do happen. I'm Australian. My dad's an immigration officer. A while back Australia changed its system and created a "skills list" and concurrently tightened pathways to permanent residency. If you weren't on that skills list, you were screwed. He's personally had to issue departure/removal orders to Canadians who worked their butt off to become eligible for PR but just before they could apply - just due to pure bad luck in their timing - the migration criteria significantly changed and some candidates were no longer eligible and had to leave the country.
I wouldn't expect that to happen in Canada has the immigration targets keep increasing, but certainly something appears to be in the works based on Fraser's repeated commentary about finding specific labour to fill specific shortages.
The short answer to this is that no one knows. I think I mentioned this also in one of my previous responses - if IRCC goes the way of a NOC list for FSW, then my thinking is that it will be a combination of having the most points + having the right NOC. I do not think it will be two separate draws. There will be one FSW draw. It's just a matter of how they will manage the criteria for that.