Yo dude...Told you already in our Sept 2021 CEC group...lol, we will be so luck that we will get PR approvals in more than 2 yrs just like those 2019 2020 FSWs...Meanwhile, we will gladly see from July, those new draws will get PR or even cards in 3-6 months.... Congrats to them in advance!...Guess we will continue see each other here in this forum in the next 24 months....lol
July draw predictions
- Thread starter aommnd
- Start date
FSWs from 2019 and 2020 do wish they were not stressed out in the 7th month...
Lol I think you were the guy who was like "please dont open cec draw" or something like that a few weeks ago. Lo and behold...
To be honest there's no point in stressing out. 7 months or 24 months, your daily routine is still the same. Stop whining and keep doing your thing!
That was done by Minister Mendicino, you must have been living in a cave for the past year to not know why cec-only draw were held.
Also, have you looked at the 2022 and 2023 for Federal High Skilled workers immigration plan ? The 2022 will be filled almost entirely witht the backlog and the 2023 will be possibly at 75,750, way down the 110,000 norm that it was in 2020 and 2021.
To achieve the 2021 numbers they were forced to conduct cec-only draws because of the pandemic, travel problems, health reason ect. In 2022 that is not the case anymore and there are plenty of candidates in the pool for the IRCC to achieve its target, with no Covid limitations on sight, just like in 2019.
You should update yourself with information. There is an abundance of it around.
Thanks for typing so many words, but you could have just said that it was your personal speculation, because that is all I wanted to know.
I wouldn't say anything like "Not a chance" if I were you, which gives ppl impression that there is some official info backing you, while there isn't and it is purely your guess.
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I'll offer a few predictions - I read/watch many of Minister Sean Fraser's media interviews and also read IRCC memos. From what he's said, I believe the following are possible. I am speculating and could be wrong, but based on what he has said it is a reasonable guess to expect the following:
1. CEC-specific draws will continue. Last month, Canada only added 15,300 jobs. Why? Because there were not enough workers to go around. In an immigration context, this intersects with IRCC's preference and Minister Fraser's mandate letter which is to keep in-Canada workers. Thus, I feel it's reasonable to conclude that they will continue with CEC-specific draws because CEC applicants are already here, are likely employed, and losing them will cause further pressure in the labour market. They will like be very aggressively pushing for 6 month CEC processing times, because Canada is screwed if these workers leave or their permits expired, but I'm not sure if I believe they'll be able to meet a 6-month SLA.
2. NOC-specific draws are possible. Since being appointed Minister, I think Mr. Fraser will likely cause some shock to the whole Express Entry system as he is focussed on innovation. I believe in several of his interviews he mentioned it wasn't that Canada was facing a worker shortage, but that were very acute shortages for specific skills. Obviously this includes things like IT & healthcare. It is possible that we will see a new/amended program where candidates in specific NOCs are pulled out from the EE pool. Maybe like a "Express Entry Skills Specific Draw - NOCs X Y Z" like how the provinces do them. This is smart, because let's face it, what benefit is it to Canada to invite someone in a low demand NOC where there is no skills shortage?
3. All-program draws will commence on 500 CRS cut-offs. An internal IRCC memo stated exactly this - as people finish studying/gain Canadian work experience/have job offers etc., it makes sense that the first several draws will be extraordinarily competitive especially given reduced spots given the TR to PR pathway is expected to take a significant amount of spots in Canada's immigration target.
4. Long processing times are here to stay. As I mentioned above, I don't believe it when IRCC says things like they'll return to 12 month processing times for spousal applications and 6 months for CEC. COVID isn't over, and companies/governments love using it as an excuse for bad customer service. Given a 2m+ backlog, COVID restrictions/excuses from every bureaucratic organization around the world, no incentive to prioritize outland applicants other than Ukrainians and Afghanis, I think your typical FSW and outland PNP candidates without job offers will be in the back of the line and wait for much longer than in-Canada/CEC PR applications.
Selfishly, my hope is that they make it easier for IEC visa holders (like me) with CEC eligibility to obtain permanent residency. From having worked in Canada, IEC CEC candidates make exceptional employees and citizens - they already have very strong English, they typically come from a work culture where it is an easy to transition into Canadian work ethic, they've proven they can get jobs, they generally fit into Canadian values quite easily - but their CRS scores are low because they don't come from countries where there is such a high pressure to get an education or they use their work permits when they're older.
1. CEC-specific draws will continue. Last month, Canada only added 15,300 jobs. Why? Because there were not enough workers to go around. In an immigration context, this intersects with IRCC's preference and Minister Fraser's mandate letter which is to keep in-Canada workers. Thus, I feel it's reasonable to conclude that they will continue with CEC-specific draws because CEC applicants are already here, are likely employed, and losing them will cause further pressure in the labour market. They will like be very aggressively pushing for 6 month CEC processing times, because Canada is screwed if these workers leave or their permits expired, but I'm not sure if I believe they'll be able to meet a 6-month SLA.
2. NOC-specific draws are possible. Since being appointed Minister, I think Mr. Fraser will likely cause some shock to the whole Express Entry system as he is focussed on innovation. I believe in several of his interviews he mentioned it wasn't that Canada was facing a worker shortage, but that were very acute shortages for specific skills. Obviously this includes things like IT & healthcare. It is possible that we will see a new/amended program where candidates in specific NOCs are pulled out from the EE pool. Maybe like a "Express Entry Skills Specific Draw - NOCs X Y Z" like how the provinces do them. This is smart, because let's face it, what benefit is it to Canada to invite someone in a low demand NOC where there is no skills shortage?
3. All-program draws will commence on 500 CRS cut-offs. An internal IRCC memo stated exactly this - as people finish studying/gain Canadian work experience/have job offers etc., it makes sense that the first several draws will be extraordinarily competitive especially given reduced spots given the TR to PR pathway is expected to take a significant amount of spots in Canada's immigration target.
4. Long processing times are here to stay. As I mentioned above, I don't believe it when IRCC says things like they'll return to 12 month processing times for spousal applications and 6 months for CEC. COVID isn't over, and companies/governments love using it as an excuse for bad customer service. Given a 2m+ backlog, COVID restrictions/excuses from every bureaucratic organization around the world, no incentive to prioritize outland applicants other than Ukrainians and Afghanis, I think your typical FSW and outland PNP candidates without job offers will be in the back of the line and wait for much longer than in-Canada/CEC PR applications.
Selfishly, my hope is that they make it easier for IEC visa holders (like me) with CEC eligibility to obtain permanent residency. From having worked in Canada, IEC CEC candidates make exceptional employees and citizens - they already have very strong English, they typically come from a work culture where it is an easy to transition into Canadian work ethic, they've proven they can get jobs, they generally fit into Canadian values quite easily - but their CRS scores are low because they don't come from countries where there is such a high pressure to get an education or they use their work permits when they're older.
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Interesting perspectives. The 450+ pool is only going to grow bigger the next two months. A lot of my class graduated between April to June 2021, this includes 4 year degree programs and people with CLB 10 across the board in English who are just about to complete their 1 year of work experience, they (including me) have not even entered the pool yet and all of us will have a score of >= 474. This would be at least a couple thousand people.
If the draws are combined rather than CEC only then we will definitely be waiting for a decent chunk of time...
It's hard to tell. You could also argue that there are lots of other temporary workers like me on IEC visas or PNP nominees on closed-work permits who are entering their profile in the EE pool and that's dragging scores down lower for CEC. Would be nice if they do a mega draw like they did in 2021 and just took everyone in the CEC pool at the time (remember that? 75 CRS!)
To a small world, linear thinker like you any paragraph longer than 100 words seems too much to grasp, hence your incapability to understand the situation presented to you.
Thus, you fall down to a three word answer with "its your opinion" showing no ability to contradict what I just said to you, let alone the will to look around or research if what is showed to you makes any sense or has any base at all.
Roasted me with what exactly, his ignorance ?
Oh yes, have a blast with your 10 seconds attention span !
If the CEC had the kind of priority you are concluding they wouldn't be moved to Edmonton and there wouldn't be 8,000 of them waiting in line to get their application processed. The last CEC only draw was back in September, so a whooping 7 months have already passed.
If you follow month to month the number of applications processed, you would see that the FSW apps are the ones that are moving faster :
Source:
https://www.cicnews.com/2022/04/canadas-immigration-backlog-grows-to-2-million-persons-0424946.html#gs.zyiqmk
Commentary on how/where they operationally process applications is extreme speculation IMO. I am basing my views on commentary from Minister Fraser himself and PM Trudeau's mandate letter to him. Not sure why or how Edmonton matters.If the CEC had the kind of priority you are concluding they wouldn't be moved to Edmonton and there wouldn't be 8,000 of them waiting in line to get their application processed. The last CEC only draw was back in September, so a whooping 7 months have already passed.
If you follow month to month the number of applications processed, you would see that the FSW apps are the ones that are moving faster :
Source:
https://www.cicnews.com/2022/04/canadas-immigration-backlog-grows-to-2-million-persons-0424946.html#gs.zyiqmk
FSW applications may be moving faster only because they have dedicated more resources to it as they are so far behind service standards and are now able to catch up because other agencies they rely on around the world for admissibility checks are also open.
(41336-36281)/(41336) = 12% of FSW processed
(10338-8363)/10338 = 19% of CEC processed
If you look at the rate of processing, CEC is still ahead. FSW has a lot more applications in the backlog so its natural the absolute number processed would be higher; it has been paused for 7 months plus an additional 9 months. You were calling members here linear thinkers but didn't look at the mathematical calculation behind processing numbers.
Either way I'm not saying CEC will get special treatment, I'm saying you are 100% speculating (as are we) and you shouldn't try to frame it any other way.