yes, I would think <25% chance on 8/17 but >90% on 8/31
If the cut-off is 527 on the 17th it has a bleak chance to drop down to 522 on the 31st, but if its 525, I believe you and me would make the cut at the end of the month.
I'm at 522 aswell.
After 08/03 there were 7600 ppl with 500-600 CRS points.
Assume 1000 new join on 08/17, 08/31 and 650 PNP. 2250 ITAs, meaning 1500 for 500-600 CRS ppl this time.
Similarly 1750 for 500-600 CRS on 08/31, meaning total of 1500+1750=3250 people between 500-600 will be invited in this month.
Most new joinees will be I assume between 500-520, so given 3250 invites for 500-600, I'd hope the score becomes 521 or less on 8/31 just going off sheer numbers.