True, very hard to predict anything with the anecdotal data here as we only have 20-30 applicants per AOR cohort here. Not sure if AOR cohorts are even a good way to calculate it. Assuming it is still accurate, we need a minimum of 150 applicants to say anything with 80% confidence.
If we sub-divide this by sub categories, we will need 150 applicants per category (FSW-O, CEC, etc) to say anything. Everything else becomes confirmation bias tbh which to those who unfortunately go through slower processing eventually turns into a loop of depression as wrong source of truth was trusted in the first place