the mail that they received was the AOR at first, then the sponsorship approval. if you refer to the January spreadsheet you will see that they just got sponsor approved 4 days ago so it seems impossible na DM applicant na siya =)
here is a sequence of events, assuming a complete application package (medicals have been done, fees have been paid fully, all forms are in order) for everyone's reference:
1. Application received by CIC
2. AOR is received after several weeks (if you are lucky to be sent one)
3. Sponsor approval after the number of days (which is an average) posted on the CIC website - "Sponsor DM" This is where you get a UCI which you can use to log into ecas
4. File Transfer to Visa Office - a few days after sponsor approval. Usually when you see "medical results have been received" that means your file is already at the Visa Office because they are the ones receiving medical results from the DMP's so it makes sense that they are the one making that update in ecas
5. PPR - average of two weeks to a month after file transfer. This is where you send your passport and other additional docs the CEM requests for.
6. After PPR, your file is reviewed . Usually ecas says "we started processing your application on___" A decision is made whether an interview is needed. Assuming that no interview is necessary;
7. You get a DM for applicant in ecas. Not considering that this is a rejection, it usually means approval of permanent residence - this is the "Applicant DM". This happens on an average of one to two months after PPR. Some very few lucky ones get theirs less than a month.
8. Then you get your VISA in the mail after a few days/ weeks
-then the seminars, then landing, then the rest is history =)
As per CIC website, steps 4 to 7 above takes an average of 9 MONTHS. The fastest I have seen so far is one month. Average nowadays take 2-4 months (not including sponsorship approval)
My estimate for our batch is we start getting Visas around April to May (for the earlier applicants) and May to June (for the latter ones) assuming that we ALL are processed on the "ACTUAL" average and not on the CIC posted average times (9 months), and assuming everyone doesn't encounter interviews, missing documents, unpaid RPRF's, etc etc.
I hope this have been helpful. you could always refer to spreadsheets of earlier batches to get a grasp on the actual average processing times so we could all manage our expectations accordingly =)
