Immigration/Express Entry Q1 2016 Quarterly report (~86,000 PRs granted)

[Skvach]

I think I found the backlog stats:

PR Application Processing (As of March 31st, 2016)

do you mean the Inventory column in the tabel?

 

[Alexios07]

do you mean the Inventory column in the tabel?

Yes, so if I'm not wrong, IRCC is still procesing 153,913 applications for Economic stream in March 2016 ???

With the approval rate of 93%. Hell, let's say 90%, we are expecting 138,521 new PRs in 2016 alone, if they can clear all the backlog.

 

[paulard]

I think I found the backlog stats:

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If I understood correctly, summarising the lines for non-express entry in the inventory section, still have 71.172 cases?

 

[Skvach]

Yes, so if I'm not wrong, IRCC is still procesing 153,913 applications for Economic stream in March 2016 ???

With the approval rate of 93%. Hell, let's say 90%, we are expecting 138,521 new PRs in 2016 alone, if they can clear all the backlog.

This includes Non-EE applicants

as per my calculation, the back log is 118,000 for economic class including 23,000 of pre EE FSW applicants
So the total EE back log is 95,000 people aka 50,000 applications

 

[ajithj]

Looks like IRCC needs almost the entire 2016 economic stream quota to clear the backlog

 

[paulard]

Based on the following assumptions:

isn't the total quota is for number of ITA > principal applicants?

I see, I was mistaken.
so there are 117.000/2 = 60,000 ITAs approximately
...

AND:

This inclunes Non-EE applicants

as per my calculation, the back log is 118,000 for economic class including 23,000 of pre EE FSW applicants
So the total EE back log is 95,000 people aka 50,000 applications

In a rough calculation, still 10,000 ITAs to go to the quota. Considering 12 draws until end of the year, 833 ITAs per draw (close we are actually having).

Considering backlog is being cleared, it is a good news for 2017, but for now we are stuck.

EDIT: They might consider increase the draws for the end of this year based on 2017 quota.

 

[ajithj]

So for 2017, we will see a jump in the number of ITAs from September-October onwards 8)

 

[Skvach]

160,000 quota - 95,000 back log - 28,000 people of 14,000 ITAs given in 2016 =35,000 places left which is 17,000 ITA

Oct,Nov and Dec 2016 (and maybe Sep 2016) applicants will go under 2017 quota

 

[Alexios07]

Based on the following assumptions:

AND:

In a rough calculation, still 10,000 ITAs to go to the quota. Considering 12 draws until end of the year, 833 ITAs per draw (close we are actually having).

Considering backlog is being cleared, it is a good news for 2017, but for now we are stuck.

EDIT: They might consider increase the draws for the end of this year based on 2017 quota.

The thing is that people with PGWP is like holding a ticking bomb, so time is something we don't have. In addition, you don't have 2017 quota until December 2016 or Jan 2017.

One thing we can be sure that they definitely cannot clear the backlog in August or September this year like some consultants or lawyers keep saying, so ITAs will not go up.

 

[ajithj]

So if 2017 quota for economic immigrants is 160,000 and skilled workers quota is 64,000 (conservative estimate). Each draw will send out around 2600 invitations (Assuming 2 draws are held every month).

 

[paulard]

The thing is that people with PGWP is like holding a ticking bomb, so time is something we don't have. In addition, you don't have 2017 quota until December 2016 or Jan 2017.

One thing we can be sure that they definitely cannot clear the backlog in August or September this year like some consultants or lawyers keep saying, so ITAs will not go up.

Yes, agree. Timing is the problem for most of the people.

I said about 2017 quota because theorically the backlog being cleared this year (that I don't believe that will be done entirely, but let's keep in the math), assuming quota still the same or even it drops, they will need to increase the number of invitations significantly. The problem is if they don't clear the backlog, it will keep the score high.

 

[anonGym]

There is definitely an increase in applicants...

 

[LokiJr01]

Thank you for posting this Alexios07. Those are some really interesting stats.

It's good to see Philippines and India Up in the list. I'd like to believe most of us in the forums come from these countries hehe.

I think this has been said before but immigration intake, while it has a quota every year, is a revolving target. ..if they hit the quota well within the year, intake continues (albeit at a slower pace)..

Secondly, backlog in the immigration process is a general issue experienced in most countries. The backlog will never be entirely eliminated but what CIC is doing is clearing most of them so they can meet the 6 month time frame.

So if you're interested to apply for a visa, don't be discouraged by the backlog...just apply ASAP. For those waiting for PR. .just be patient. Your time will come hehe (patience is hard to find in this fast paced world of ours hehe)

 

[thestunner316]

interesting read. great work alexios

 

[wenfeizh]

thanks for sharing this Alexios!

could you tell me what this means for CEC inlanders? I must admit I am not fully understanding those numbers (awful math haha) ??? ;D :'(