How will you ever know where you stand in Express Entry pool???

[fkl]

So, I am scoring 481 out of 600....Would get my PNP early next year (Feb/March). Work for a local municipality, earning 6 figure salary in Canada.....employer would never apply for LMIA (they don't want to take that tension).

Is there any chance that I may get picked up in first few draws...

All we can do at this point is to speculate since the program is in its early stage and they will experience things and make changes.

I think you would be able to get through in the few draws. Firstly not every one with a job and LMIA would be in the pools. A lot of them tried avoiding this by applying before EE. Others might not be ready for this for their individual circumstances (e.g. me being in Quebec will only do this when i am moving out of province else i won't be eligible for CEC being a non QC program).

There would be many people without LMIA's but jobs - and CIC would sooner or latter be forced to do something about it. E.g. post docs do not require LMIA's so their jobs are without LMIA's in the first place. Do you think all of those would be at a disadvantage? I don't think CIC would be that foolish. I expect amendments to be announced very soon. In fact i currently think they put in LMIA as a requirement for additional 600 score without realizing its full consequences and would soon resort.

Even if that is not the case, you got a good score which means you should be among the top percentage after those with LMIAs. So if i were you, i would just be patient and expect things to turn out positively soon.

 

[kainthsimranjit]

Ahh another issue is that you did not have PR/Citizen ship. I am an undergrad and got turned for positions from SAP and Deloitte because I am PGWP holder. Did you go to Haskayne School of Business? You should have moved to Toronto. You would have gotten a job sooner.

Yes, I went to Haskayne....Toronto is no easy destination as well....if they have more jobs then they also have more people competing for those jobs...

 

[kainthsimranjit]

All we can do at this point is to speculate since the program is in its early stage and they will experience things and make changes.

I think you would be able to get through in the few draws. Firstly not every one with a job and LMIA would be in the pools. A lot of them tried avoiding this by applying before EE. Others might not be ready for this for their individual circumstances (e.g. me being in Quebec will only do this when i am moving out of province else i won't be eligible for CEC being a non QC program).

There would be many people without LMIA's but jobs - and CIC would sooner or latter be forced to do something about it. E.g. post docs do not require LMIA's so their jobs are without LMIA's in the first place. Do you think all of those would be at a disadvantage? I don't think CIC would be that foolish. I expect amendments to be announced very soon. In fact i currently think they put in LMIA as a requirement for additional 600 score without realizing its full consequences and would soon resort.

Even if that is not the case, you got a good score which means you should be among the top percentage after those with LMIAs. So if i were you, i would just be patient and expect things to turn out positively soon.

Hmmmmm....now we are at same page... I was trying to make the same point....anyways...lets wait and c..few more days

 

[cecandconfused]

Yes, I went to Haskayne....Toronto is no easy destination as well....if they have more jobs then they also have more people competing for those jobs...

I'm jealous of your score. I'm 444. It has been said that that score is high enough for the first few draws. There are thousands of CEC applicants and International students who also won't have LMIA, so the battle is decided effectively by your language, age, etc. Let's hope statistics are correct and 450ish scores get through in the first couple of draws under CEC.

The issue of not finding a job is a common one and is not just exclusive to immigrants. So many of my schoolmates from Haskayne still don't have a job they'd be happy with. Mostly it's because the job market (especially in Calgary) is all about who you know and where you worked/interned/co-oped when you were in school. I started with my bank when I was back in school (OCWP) and got my current job after graduation, so it worked out that way.

 

[praneet87]

I'm jealous of your score. I'm 444. It has been said that that score is high enough for the first few draws. There are thousands of CEC applicants and International students who also won't have LMIA, so the battle is decided effectively by your language, age, etc. Let's hope statistics are correct and 450ish scores get through in the first couple of draws under CEC.

The issue of not finding a job is a common one and is not just exclusive to immigrants. So many of my schoolmates from Haskayne still don't have a job they'd be happy with. Mostly it's because the job market (especially in Calgary) is all about who you know and where you worked/interned/co-oped when you were in school. I started with my bank when I was back in school (OCWP) and got my current job after graduation, so it worked out that way.

You worry too much.

 

[cecandconfused]

You worry too much.

I know Parneet, you're very right. Partly it's because I hate uncertainty. I'm in fight or flight mode right now, trying to protect my life. Drinking helps!

 

[Regina]

. If you combine stats of NOC 0, A or B they are close to 35% of all LMIAs

it' not true. And I am sure your "stats" were wrong. It is close to impossible to get LMO (LMIA) for NOC A and 0, and B too (from outside and even from inside of Canada). Maybe some IT and mechanic /mining engineering professionals could be lucky. But nobody in accounting or librarians.

 

[fkl]

it' not true. And I am sure your "stats" were wrong. It is close to impossible to get LMO (LMIA) for NOC A and 0, and B too (from outside and even from inside of Canada). Maybe some IT and mechanic /mining engineering professionals could be lucky. But nobody in accounting or librarians.

I did not mention accounting or librarians. And as before without looking at data or bringing some justification - simply saying wrong or not true merely tells me where you are coming from, arguments and data only makes sense when one talks to people who care to research. So i stop here - and won't waste any more time answering.

 

[marcus66502]

Let me just ask you all this simple question: If EVERYBODY in the EE pool has the same score, do all get invited to apply?

That was a rhetorical question of course, in case you didn't get it. You can't invite several times more applicants as you plan to admit in the year. Everyone having the same score is not likely, but it is POSSIBLE.

Moral of the story: You can't take CIC's word today as etched in stone. When they say something (like all applicants with the lowest cut off score will be invited), it's not final. It's not that they've thought the matter through. They're still trying to work things out, while at the same time they're under pressure from the press and public, who want answers and certainty (which is why I think sometimes they give answers that are only half-baked such as the one above; they haven't had time to think the matter through).

I have to agree with Regina. They will have to go back on their promise of inviting everyone to apply if they have the lowest cut-off score. That's not a promise they can afford to keep if they're to stay within monthly or annual or whatever limits they have. Eventually they'll have to introduce some other measure to distinguish between the applicants who hold the same cut-off score (the date they entered the pool might be a reasonable one).

 

[cecandconfused]

it' not true. And I am sure your "stats" were wrong. It is close to impossible to get LMO (LMIA) for NOC A and 0, and B too (from outside and even from inside of Canada). Maybe some IT and mechanic /mining engineering professionals could be lucky. But nobody in accounting or librarians.

I'm with Regina on this. LMIAs are very hard to get and rare. Even in 2014 only 1400 people got PR from the LMIA/LMO route (CIC Tech briefing). One thing that I sometimes overlook when I become stressed/worried is that only people eligible under current immigration programs will be invited to the EE pool. So in the old days, they would be considered for PR anyway and probably ahead of me if their application was date-stamped before mine, and now, thanks to CELPIP score, I'll probably be somewhat ahead of the line (albeit not as ahead as those with LMIAs). For the first few years of EE, people like us without LMIA are going to be ok (though still quite uncertain). But as time passes, more and more people will get LMIA or PNP and make it harder for those without either. I wish AINP wasn't 14 months processing time!

 

[AndreasChen]

I'm with Regina on this. LMIAs are very hard to get and rare. Even in 2014 only 1400 people got PR from the LMIA/LMO route (CIC Tech briefing). One thing that I sometimes overlook when I become stressed/worried is that only people eligible under current immigration programs will be invited to the EE pool. So in the old days, they would be considered for PR anyway and probably ahead of me if their application was date-stamped before mine, and now, thanks to CELPIP score, I'll probably be somewhat ahead of the line (albeit not as ahead as those with LMIAs). For the first few years of EE, people like us without LMIA are going to be ok (though still quite uncertain). But as time passes, more and more people will get LMIA or PNP and make it harder for those without either. I wish AINP wasn't 14 months processing time!

I am with you guys as well. Weeks ago I pointed out that this stats may be heavily biased. It may happen to be close at the end, but for prediction purpose it is meaningless.

Take the language factor as an example, active participants in this forum are mostly adequate English users and tend to score much higher in IELTS. However I do know a huge group of candidates with much lower average IELTS scores who do not even visit this forum simply because this is not in a language they feel comfortable with. Of course one can claim there are other factors to correct this bias. Just like you can always sweeten salty soup but how much water is about right? You never know beforehand so this stats is not predicting anything.

Another fact to realize is that CIC does not care about the distribution, but cares only about the right quantiles, so what can we learn from this spreadsheet?

 

[cecandconfused]

I am with you guys as well. Weeks ago I pointed out that this stats may be heavily biased. It may happen to be close at the end, but for prediction purpose it is meaningless.

Take the language factor as an example, active participants in this forum are mostly adequate English users and tend to score much higher in IELTS. However I do know a huge group of candidates with much lower average IELTS scores who do not even visit this forum simply because this is not in a language they feel comfortable with. Of course one can claim there are other factors to correct this bias. Just like you can always add water to sweeten salty soup, but how much is right? You never know beforehand so this stats is not predicting anything.

Another fact to realize is that CIC does not care about the distribution, but cares only about the right tail, so what can we learn from this spreadsheet?

Word. No one will know for sure what the stats are (roughly) till we get the first snapshot that CIC is going to post after the first draw.

 

[AndreasChen]

Word. No one will know for sure what the stats are (roughly) till we get the first snapshot that CIC is going to post after the first draw.

I don't even expect CIC will post the full snapshot. Once again they care only about the right quantile. They have a passing score in mind, and once the first X thousand candidates crossed that bar they make a draw.

 

[flangepoint]

Hey guys,

Going through the recent updates by CIC on EE, it appears that they'll post the lowest score that got selected for Invitation to apply "after" the draws are completed. This leaves all of us in a very uncertain scenario wherein we will never know our chances of selection based on our points.

I was trying to get a rough idea on the number of applicants who may want to apply under EE and could not find any data. The spreadsheet that was created by @ srbhrn has only 160 odd entries which is not a great indicator of the reality.

So how many people may enter the pool in the coming months. The Answer is "No idea". Just to make a guess, I checked the number of members who joined this forum on/after 01 Nov 2014 and found 71 pages*99 members per page = 7029 members (I chose Nov assuming that anyone who started FSW 2014 application after this date may not have been able to complete it so would most likely apply under EE pool).

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/index.php?action=mlist;sort=registered;desc;start=7000

Now since this forum handles a variety of topics assuming that of these new members 20% may be looking forward to apply for EE seems alright (again this just for a broad idea so there are several assumptions).

That means 1500+ people may apply for EE in the coming months. Or may be less or may be way more....

And nobody has a clue about the profiles of these probable EE entries as majority have not updated their profiles in the EE spreadsheet. So a sincere request to all.. Please update your entries in the spreadsheet below.. even if you think you score above most of the current entries. Thousands may simply be keeping an eye on the spreadsheet but not updating thinking that they have comparatively better scores and will make it through the ITAs and vice versa. Remember if thousands who haven't updated there profiles are the ones with job offer or provincial nominations, several entries with job offers/pnp but with lower overall scores will not be selected for ITA in reality. Alternatively many with scores of under 300 will not proceed further with the process assuming that they'll never be selected while the reality may be that the actual pool has majority with under 200 score.

Basically there is only 1 way for all of us to be certain. please update your profiles. It will save a lot of time and hard earned money for thousands of others.

Spreadsheet created by @ srbhrn in this post :

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/-t256213.0.html

Express Entry Spreadsheet
http://tinyurl.com/mwstg52

To get yourself entered in Spreadsheet, enter details here:
http://tinyurl.com/ke3hjef

Good luck to all..

Of total 204 applicants as of now, 123 applicants are FSW2014 applicants. Therefore new complete newbies are only about 70 or so.

Of 204 there are only 34 candidates above the score of 450. That makes 16%.
here is an assumption !!
Apply this to a bigger no. of applicants, then on say 10,000 applicants 16% might have above 450 therefore maybe, MAYBE, MAAAAYBEEEE first draw would pull in these (16%) 1600 high scoring applicants & a part of them might get ITA.
Again, its just a wild guess. I cant resist forecasting. I'm dying out of curiosity. ;D

 

[marcus66502]

Of total 204 applicants as of now, 123 applicants are FSW2014 applicants. Therefore new complete newbies are only about 70 or so.

Of 204 there are only 34 candidates above the score of 450. That makes 16%.
here is an assumption !!
Apply this to a bigger no. of applicants, then on say 10,000 applicants 16% might have above 450 therefore maybe, MAYBE, MAAAAYBEEEE first draw would pull in these (16%) 1600 high scoring applicants & a part of them might get ITA.
Again, its just a wild guess. I cant resist forecasting. I'm dying out of curiosity. ;D

You might as well be forecasting which way the wind will this day next year, because as far as you're concerned, as long as you don't have PNP or LMIA, you'll be waiting around for an invitation for who knows how many years.