Honestly, it's so difficult to say. The fact that the onus is on the applicant to provide the evidence can always be countered by the government. Remember, I am not a lawyer or member of the government making these decisions, but playing devils advocate, you claims on the war could be countered with the improving conditions due to the down fall of ISIS, iraqs increased oil production (economic improvement), etc. I still think the effect on your children (one daughter has been in Canada more than half her life) and their integration into Canadian society would be the strongest compelling factors. Not that they won't consider other things, but effect on children seems to be a significant consideration both with IRB and the courts. For research sake, check some of the court results in CanLi.
https://www.canlii.org/en/