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Hemilshah80

Hero Member
Apr 3, 2019
281
304
Category........
PNP
Visa Office......
Ottawa
Did you also receive a Schedule A request? I am curious as to why do they need it now since everything was passed on my application since Sep 2020 (as per GMS).
Don't worry mate. Quite a few people who got their Ppr in the recent past received requests to submit different documents. Some were asked for PCC while others were asked for remeds and some were asked for Schedule A. The good thing is There's some movement on your file and its just a matter of a few more days before you get to celebrate. All the best.
 
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VVV62

Star Member
Feb 11, 2021
174
227
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
15-10-2020
Med's Done....
26-11-2020
The data released gives COPRs as in persons and not cases. 14282 people in cec received COPR(including dependents) in october and the backlog is 48225 total people(including dependent) at the end of october. So the Backlog in the end of Nov for CEC should be 33943 if they processed the same number in Nov as they did in Oct.
Yeah, my mistake. I'll recalculate...
 
Last edited:
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Alysson

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2019
1,225
2,131
Yeah, my mistake. I may be recalculate...
Np, your estimate was good to put things in perspective. If COPRs really increased 10x for FSW that's amazing. It will clear 1/3 of backlog by end of Jan. when they finish CEC, and then they can clear 1/3 per month on Feb. and March.
 

apollonoob

Star Member
Nov 16, 2020
184
59
So, here are my calculations and thought:

MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs CEC
ImmiTracker
COPRs FSWCOPRs FSW
ImmiTracker
COPRs PNPCOPRs PNP
ImmiTracker
Backlog CEC
on Oct, 27
Backlog FSW
on Oct, 27
Backlog PNP
on Oct, 27
Sep, 202114364664687183419???
Oct, 202114282575863159614482255114771509
Nov, 2021?33?43?20???

There're two main interesting points, as I think:
1) The fact is that we don't know the actual number of persons per application, so it's hard to calculate how the backlog reduces. Someone have 0 dependend relatives, someone has more than 5. For further calculations, let us think that an average application has 2 persons in total. As a result, there will be just 1 COPRs for both of them. So, according to this estimation, the data for November should approximately be:

MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog CECBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 2021142825861596482255114771509
Nov, 2021???196614997568317

According to my calculations, it's highly likely, that almost half of applications stuck in the CEC backlog was finalized in November. If the tempo remains the same, it will probably take amout 1 month to clear the CEC backlog if the COPR issuing tempo doesn't fall.

2) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a prediction:
MonthCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 202158615965114771509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)586015963942768317
Dec, 2021 (prediction)586015962770765125
Jan, 2022 (prediction)586015961598761933
Feb, 2022 (prediction)58601596426758741

Well, of course we should take into account that is an extremely rough prediction. I think that there's a chance that the FSW backlog may be cleared around March, 2022, if the current tendency remains.
Nevertheless, as we all know, IRCC can re-assign its officers from one program to another, so only God knows what to expect.

So, I see the picture this way:
- The CEC backlog may be cleared in Jan, 2022.
- All officers responsible for CEC may be re-assigned for finalizing PNP and FSW applications.
- Thus, the FSW and PNP backlogs will have been cleared by March, 2022.
- So, new FSW ITAs may be expected in March-April.
Although the conclusions might sound too optimistic, but the way how you make the prediction seems reasonable. BTW,it seems that IRCC claims that they will start CEC FSW invitations when half backlog are cleared. So let’s see when.
 

VVV62

Star Member
Feb 11, 2021
174
227
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
15-10-2020
Med's Done....
26-11-2020
Yeah, my mistake. I may be recalculate...
The first table remains the same:
MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs CEC
ImmiTracker
COPRs FSWCOPRs FSW
ImmiTracker
COPRs PNPCOPRs PNP
ImmiTracker
Backlog CEC
on Oct, 27
Backlog FSW
on Oct, 27
Backlog PNP
on Oct, 27
Sep, 202114364664687183419???
Oct, 202114282575863159614482255114771509
Nov, 2021?33?43?20???

1) A prediction for November is:

MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog CECBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 2021142825861596482255114771509
Nov, 2021???339435056169913

2) A prediction for CEC, if the 14k trend remains in play:
MonthCOPRs CECBacklog CEC
Oct, 20211428248225
Nov, 2021 (prediction)1428233943
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428219661
Jan, 2021 (prediction)142825378
Feb, 2021 (prediction)14282CEC backlog cleared

3) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a rough prediction:
MonthCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 202158615965114771509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)586015964528769913
Dec, 2021 (prediction)586015963942768317
Jan, 2022 (prediction)586015963356766721
Feb, 2022 (prediction)586015962770765125
Mar, 2022 (prediction)586015962184763529
Apr, 2022 (prediction)586015961598761933
May, 2022 (prediction)586015961012760337
Jun, 2022 (prediction)58601596416758741
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-1596FSW backlog cleared57145

4) My assumption is that in November half of IRCC officers responsible for CEC were re-assigned to FSW, which was estimated as the long-awaited PPR rain. Let me make calculate this:
MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSWBacklog CECBacklog FSW
Oct, 2021142825864822551147
Nov, 2021 (prediction)714177274108443420
Dec, 2021 (prediction)714177273394335693
Jan, 2022 (prediction)714177272680227966
Feb, 2022 (prediction)714177271966120239
Mar, 2022 (prediction)714177271252012512
Apr, 2022 (prediction)7141772753794785
May, 2022 (prediction)71417727CEC backlog clearedFSW backlog cleared

5) Of course, IRCC could follow this strategy:
MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSWBacklog CECBacklog FSW
Oct, 2021142825864822551147
Nov, 2021142825863394350561
Dec, 2021 (prediction)142825861966149975
Jan, 2022 (prediction)14282586537849389
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-14868CEC backlog cleared34521
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-14868-19653
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-14868-4785
May, 2022 (prediction)---FSW backlog cleared

6) And here's the best prediction based on the fact that the number of COPRs for FSW increased tenfold. It could happen because a bunch of IRCC officers had been shifted from other programs (not CEC) to FSW.

MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSW
(FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)
Number of COPRs for FSW
(PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)
Backlog CECBacklog FSW
(FSW-priority scenario)
Backlog FSW
(PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 202114282586586482255114751147
Nov, 20211428258605860339434528745287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428258605860196613942739427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)142825860586053793356739427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-201425860CEC backlog cleared1342533567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-201425860-FSW backlog cleared27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-201425860--21847
May, 2022 (prediction)-----15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)-----10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-----4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)-----FSW backlog cleared


So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
 

Jaycejay

Champion Member
Jan 4, 2020
2,296
5,644
Category........
FSW
The first table remains the same:
MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs CEC
ImmiTracker
COPRs FSWCOPRs FSW
ImmiTracker
COPRs PNPCOPRs PNP
ImmiTracker
Backlog CEC
on Oct, 27
Backlog FSW
on Oct, 27
Backlog PNP
on Oct, 27
Sep, 202114364664687183419???
Oct, 202114282575863159614482255114771509
Nov, 2021?33?43?20???

1) A prediction for November is:

MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog CECBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 2021142825861596482255114771509
Nov, 2021???339435056169913

2) A prediction for CEC, if the 14k trend remains in play:
MonthCOPRs CECBacklog CEC
Oct, 20211428248225
Nov, 2021 (prediction)1428233943
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428219661
Jan, 2021 (prediction)142825378
Feb, 2021 (prediction)14282CEC backlog cleared

3) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a rough prediction:
MonthCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 202158615965114771509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)586015964528769913
Dec, 2021 (prediction)586015963942768317
Jan, 2022 (prediction)586015963356766721
Feb, 2022 (prediction)586015962770765125
Mar, 2022 (prediction)586015962184763529
Apr, 2022 (prediction)586015961598761933
May, 2022 (prediction)586015961012760337
Jun, 2022 (prediction)58601596416758741
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-1596FSW backlog cleared57145

4) My assumption is that in November half of IRCC officers responsible for CEC were re-assigned to FSW, which was estimated as the long-awaited PPR rain. Let me make calculate this:
MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSWBacklog CECBacklog FSW
Oct, 2021142825864822551147
Nov, 2021 (prediction)714177274108443420
Dec, 2021 (prediction)714177273394335693
Jan, 2022 (prediction)714177272680227966
Feb, 2022 (prediction)714177271966120239
Mar, 2022 (prediction)714177271252012512
Apr, 2022 (prediction)7141772753794785
May, 2022 (prediction)71417727CEC backlog clearedFSW backlog cleared

5) Of course, IRCC could follow this strategy:
MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSWBacklog CECBacklog FSW
Oct, 2021142825864822551147
Nov, 2021142825863394350561
Dec, 2021 (prediction)142825861966149975
Jan, 2022 (prediction)14282586537849389
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-14868CEC backlog cleared34521
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-14868-19653
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-14868-4785
May, 2022 (prediction)---FSW backlog cleared

6) And here's the best prediction based on the fact that the number of COPRs for FSW increased tenfold. It could happen because a bunch of IRCC officers had been shifted from other programs (not CEC) to FSW.

MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSW
(FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)
Number of COPRs for FSW
(PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)
Backlog CECBacklog FSW
(FSW-priority scenario)
Backlog FSW
(PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 202114282586586482255114751147
Nov, 20211428258605860339434528745287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428258605860196613942739427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)142825860586053793356739427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-201425860CEC backlog cleared1342533567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-201425860-FSW backlog cleared27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-201425860--21847
May, 2022 (prediction)-----15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)-----10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-----4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)-----FSW backlog cleared


So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
appreciate you for the work man!
 

Alysson

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2019
1,225
2,131
The first table remains the same:
MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs CEC
ImmiTracker
COPRs FSWCOPRs FSW
ImmiTracker
COPRs PNPCOPRs PNP
ImmiTracker
Backlog CEC
on Oct, 27
Backlog FSW
on Oct, 27
Backlog PNP
on Oct, 27
Sep, 202114364664687183419???
Oct, 202114282575863159614482255114771509
Nov, 2021?33?43?20???


MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSW
(FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)
Number of COPRs for FSW
(PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)
Backlog CECBacklog FSW
(FSW-priority scenario)
Backlog FSW
(PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 202114282586586482255114751147
Nov, 20211428258605860339434528745287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428258605860196613942739427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)142825860586053793356739427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-201425860CEC backlog cleared1342533567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-201425860-FSW backlog cleared27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-201425860--21847
May, 2022 (prediction)-----15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)-----10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-----4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)-----FSW backlog cleared


So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
Thanks for the estimate, it looks great. My guess is the last estimate. The resources for FSW came from Ottawa, which were probably all over the place processing everything this year. In the end they were stuck with Afghanistan which ended up not having that much demand(Since canada expects refugees to get inside canada on their own or wait for bureaucracy from third party refugee groups.) So I don't think resources got split up. They won't divert so much from CEC to FSW this year, because they need 86k Nov and Dec for their quota, and they can't get that from outland. Maybe they will split resources from CEC starting January or continue to clear it all, and finally finish most cases by end of March. That is if things go well.
 
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VVV62

Star Member
Feb 11, 2021
174
227
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
15-10-2020
Med's Done....
26-11-2020
Although the conclusions might sound too optimistic, but the way how you make the prediction seems reasonable. BTW,it seems that IRCC claims that they will start CEC FSW invitations when half backlog are cleared. So let’s see when.
As I see, among all EE programs, the PNP backlog is the main stone tied to the neck of IRCC. The CEC and FSW programs are cleared much more faster, especially CEC. I even think that when the overwhelming majority of CEC and FSW applications were finalized (around March-May, 2022), the PNP backlog would have about 60k of applicants.
Nevertheless, I think that IRCC will start CEC FSW invitations when half of ALL backlog (1.8 mil people/2 = 900k ppl) are cleared. In this case, IRCC could send 170k COPRs to ALL FSW+CEC+PNP applicants, and even then invitations won't be resumed.
 

seadrag0n

Champion Member
Mar 6, 2018
2,785
2,491
The first table remains the same:
MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs CEC
ImmiTracker
COPRs FSWCOPRs FSW
ImmiTracker
COPRs PNPCOPRs PNP
ImmiTracker
Backlog CEC
on Oct, 27
Backlog FSW
on Oct, 27
Backlog PNP
on Oct, 27
Sep, 202114364664687183419???
Oct, 202114282575863159614482255114771509
Nov, 2021?33?43?20???

1) A prediction for November is:

MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog CECBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 2021142825861596482255114771509
Nov, 2021???339435056169913

2) A prediction for CEC, if the 14k trend remains in play:
MonthCOPRs CECBacklog CEC
Oct, 20211428248225
Nov, 2021 (prediction)1428233943
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428219661
Jan, 2021 (prediction)142825378
Feb, 2021 (prediction)14282CEC backlog cleared

3) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a rough prediction:
MonthCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 202158615965114771509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)586015964528769913
Dec, 2021 (prediction)586015963942768317
Jan, 2022 (prediction)586015963356766721
Feb, 2022 (prediction)586015962770765125
Mar, 2022 (prediction)586015962184763529
Apr, 2022 (prediction)586015961598761933
May, 2022 (prediction)586015961012760337
Jun, 2022 (prediction)58601596416758741
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-1596FSW backlog cleared57145

4) My assumption is that in November half of IRCC officers responsible for CEC were re-assigned to FSW, which was estimated as the long-awaited PPR rain. Let me make calculate this:
MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSWBacklog CECBacklog FSW
Oct, 2021142825864822551147
Nov, 2021 (prediction)714177274108443420
Dec, 2021 (prediction)714177273394335693
Jan, 2022 (prediction)714177272680227966
Feb, 2022 (prediction)714177271966120239
Mar, 2022 (prediction)714177271252012512
Apr, 2022 (prediction)7141772753794785
May, 2022 (prediction)71417727CEC backlog clearedFSW backlog cleared

5) Of course, IRCC could follow this strategy:
MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSWBacklog CECBacklog FSW
Oct, 2021142825864822551147
Nov, 2021142825863394350561
Dec, 2021 (prediction)142825861966149975
Jan, 2022 (prediction)14282586537849389
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-14868CEC backlog cleared34521
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-14868-19653
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-14868-4785
May, 2022 (prediction)---FSW backlog cleared

6) And here's the best prediction based on the fact that the number of COPRs for FSW increased tenfold. It could happen because a bunch of IRCC officers had been shifted from other programs (not CEC) to FSW.

MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSW
(FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)
Number of COPRs for FSW
(PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)
Backlog CECBacklog FSW
(FSW-priority scenario)
Backlog FSW
(PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 202114282586586482255114751147
Nov, 20211428258605860339434528745287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428258605860196613942739427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)142825860586053793356739427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-201425860CEC backlog cleared1342533567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-201425860-FSW backlog cleared27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-201425860--21847
May, 2022 (prediction)-----15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)-----10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-----4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)-----FSW backlog cleared


So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
One thing to note is that more than half of the PNP applications are paper-based which has a processing time of 2 years before covid and in one of the earlier memos, wasn't it mentioned that there were about 15k PNP express entry applications(not persons) pending?
 

Jaycejay

Champion Member
Jan 4, 2020
2,296
5,644
Category........
FSW
As I see, among all EE programs, the PNP backlog is the main stone tied to the neck of IRCC. The CEC and FSW programs are cleared much more faster, especially CEC. I even think that when the overwhelming majority of CEC and FSW applications were finalized (around March-May, 2022), the PNP backlog would have about 60k of applicants.
Nevertheless, I think that IRCC will start CEC FSW invitations when half of ALL backlog (1.8 mil people/2 = 900k ppl) are cleared. In this case, IRCC could send 170k COPRs to ALL FSW+CEC+PNP applicants, and even then invitations won't be resumed.
In the internal memo CIC released recently, it was revealed that IRCC would start conducting Express entry draws again when more than half of the Express entry backlogs has been cleared, not when half of ALL backlog is cleared. Waiting for half of all backlogs to be cleared wouldn't make any sense because there are some immigration categories that have always been known to take long processing times even pre-Pandemic. Express entry is special in the sense that was designed to be fast and has been Canada's main tool in acheiving it's immigration targets annually, so those draws have to resume somewhat early next year regardless of non-EE backlogs.

NOTE: PNP isn't traditionally part of the express entry stream when we talk about targets and backlogs. Ideally, the Express entry streams are FSW, CEC and FST. PNP seems to operate by a different set of rules, pretty much why the invitations never stopped.


Immigration categoryCategory2021 Range2021 Target2022 Range2022 Target2023 Range2023 Target
Express EntryFSW, FST, CEC 81,000-110,250108,50096,250-112,900110,500100,000-114,500113,750
Economic pilots: Caregivers; Agri-Food; Rural and Northern4,900-9,2508,5004,500-10,50010,0004,500-11,00010,250
Atlantic Pilot3,300-6,2506,0003,000-6,7506,2503,500-6,7506,500
Business400-1,2501,000250-1,2501,000500-1,2501,000
PNPs64,000-81,50080,80063,600-82,50081,50065,000-84,00083,000
Quebec (Skilled Worker & Business)21,300-25,300See the Quebec immigration planSee the Quebec immigration planTBDTBDTBD
Total Economic180,500-237,000232,500199,000-247,000241,500207,000-253,500249,500
 

Midnight Blessing

Hero Member
Mar 16, 2017
888
683
Category........
FSW
Visa Office......
SGVO
Passport Req..
27-01-2022
VISA ISSUED...
17-02-2022
Anyone in the group from SGVO??

SGVO seems like the most slowest VO in the history of EE.

Guys if you have passed medical recently, by when do you think SGVO can issue PPR?
 

Newfoundland991

Star Member
Nov 25, 2020
58
41
The first table remains the same:
MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs CEC
ImmiTracker
COPRs FSWCOPRs FSW
ImmiTracker
COPRs PNPCOPRs PNP
ImmiTracker
Backlog CEC
on Oct, 27
Backlog FSW
on Oct, 27
Backlog PNP
on Oct, 27
Sep, 202114364664687183419???
Oct, 202114282575863159614482255114771509
Nov, 2021?33?43?20???

1) A prediction for November is:

MonthCOPRs CECCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog CECBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 2021142825861596482255114771509
Nov, 2021???339435056169913

2) A prediction for CEC, if the 14k trend remains in play:
MonthCOPRs CECBacklog CEC
Oct, 20211428248225
Nov, 2021 (prediction)1428233943
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428219661
Jan, 2021 (prediction)142825378
Feb, 2021 (prediction)14282CEC backlog cleared

3) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a rough prediction:
MonthCOPRs FSWCOPRs PNPBacklog FSWBacklog PNP
Oct, 202158615965114771509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)586015964528769913
Dec, 2021 (prediction)586015963942768317
Jan, 2022 (prediction)586015963356766721
Feb, 2022 (prediction)586015962770765125
Mar, 2022 (prediction)586015962184763529
Apr, 2022 (prediction)586015961598761933
May, 2022 (prediction)586015961012760337
Jun, 2022 (prediction)58601596416758741
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-1596FSW backlog cleared57145

4) My assumption is that in November half of IRCC officers responsible for CEC were re-assigned to FSW, which was estimated as the long-awaited PPR rain. Let me make calculate this:
MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSWBacklog CECBacklog FSW
Oct, 2021142825864822551147
Nov, 2021 (prediction)714177274108443420
Dec, 2021 (prediction)714177273394335693
Jan, 2022 (prediction)714177272680227966
Feb, 2022 (prediction)714177271966120239
Mar, 2022 (prediction)714177271252012512
Apr, 2022 (prediction)7141772753794785
May, 2022 (prediction)71417727CEC backlog clearedFSW backlog cleared

5) Of course, IRCC could follow this strategy:
MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSWBacklog CECBacklog FSW
Oct, 2021142825864822551147
Nov, 2021142825863394350561
Dec, 2021 (prediction)142825861966149975
Jan, 2022 (prediction)14282586537849389
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-14868CEC backlog cleared34521
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-14868-19653
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-14868-4785
May, 2022 (prediction)---FSW backlog cleared

6) And here's the best prediction based on the fact that the number of COPRs for FSW increased tenfold. It could happen because a bunch of IRCC officers had been shifted from other programs (not CEC) to FSW.

MonthNumber of COPRs for CECNumber of COPRs for FSW
(FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)
Number of COPRs for FSW
(PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)
Backlog CECBacklog FSW
(FSW-priority scenario)
Backlog FSW
(PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 202114282586586482255114751147
Nov, 20211428258605860339434528745287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)1428258605860196613942739427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)142825860586053793356739427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)-201425860CEC backlog cleared1342533567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)-201425860-FSW backlog cleared27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)-201425860--21847
May, 2022 (prediction)-----15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)-----10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)-----4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)-----FSW backlog cleared


So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
Thank you for putting this together . It is indeed hard to predict, and we should expect it at any point, yet, I’m getting ready for worst case scenario of receiving PPR in April/May.
Will be interesting to see the real data from November.
 
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VVV62

Star Member
Feb 11, 2021
174
227
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
15-10-2020
Med's Done....
26-11-2020
In the internal memo CIC released recently, it was revealed that IRCC would start conducting Express entry draws again when more than half of the Express entry backlogs has been cleared, not when half of ALL backlog is cleared. Waiting for half of all backlogs to be cleared wouldn't make any sense because there are some immigration categories that have always been known to take long processing times even pre-Pandemic. Express entry is special in the sense that was designed to be fast and has been Canada's main tool in acheiving it's immigration targets annually, so those draws have to resume somewhat early next year regardless of non-EE backlogs.

NOTE: PNP isn't traditionally part of the express entry stream when we talk about targets and backlogs. Ideally, the Express entry streams are FSW, CEC and FST. PNP seems to operate by a different set of rules, pretty much why the invitations never stopped.


Immigration categoryCategory2021 Range2021 Target2022 Range2022 Target2023 Range2023 Target
Express EntryFSW, FST, CEC 81,000-110,250108,50096,250-112,900110,500100,000-114,500113,750
Economic pilots: Caregivers; Agri-Food; Rural and Northern4,900-9,2508,5004,500-10,50010,0004,500-11,00010,250
Atlantic Pilot3,300-6,2506,0003,000-6,7506,2503,500-6,7506,500
Business400-1,2501,000250-1,2501,000500-1,2501,000
PNPs64,000-81,50080,80063,600-82,50081,50065,000-84,00083,000
Quebec (Skilled Worker & Business)21,300-25,300See the Quebec immigration planSee the Quebec immigration planTBDTBDTBD
Total Economic180,500-237,000232,500199,000-247,000241,500207,000-253,500249,500

Hm, I've got a strange thought:
As we see, IRCC depicted its 2022 target for EE (FSW, FST, CEC) as 110,500 people.
In the meantime, in October 2021, the EE backlog for these 3 programs was: 48,225 (CEC) + 51,147 (FSW) + 941 (FST) = 100,313 applicants who stuck in limbo.
Let us think, that by the end of 2021, IRCC will have sent N golden mails.
Thus, the number of (100,313 - N) backlogged applicants will remain in limbo on Jan, 1, and their PPRs will go to the 2022 statistics.
So, the number of possible ITAs which will take place in 2022 will be:
110,500 - (100,313 - N) = 10,187 + N,
where N is the number of COPRs sent between Oct, 27 and Dec, 31.

I see it like communicating vessels - more people get COPRs in 2021, more free space for ITAs in 2022.

And here we meet the point: what is the aim of IRCC?
I mean that if they're simple bureaucrats, they have already reached 90% of their 2022 target for EE. If IRCC gets that its 2021 target is unobtainable, they could decelerate the issuing of COPRs in 2021 and easily smear the remaining EE backlog on all 12 months of 2022 in order to keep working in pace but without burning buttocks. The number of 2022 ITAs will depend only on their agreement to fulfil social obligations. And Sean Frases is the only guy who can affect them. I mean that he ought to be a guy with a whip - I assume that Sean Fraser acknowledges that in 5 years we all will be legit citizens to vote. So, if I were him, I'd wanted us to be grateful citizens. His further actions could show how he plans to cast his future in Canadian politics.
 

seadrag0n

Champion Member
Mar 6, 2018
2,785
2,491
Hm, I've got a strange thought:
As we see, IRCC depicted its 2022 target for EE (FSW, FST, CEC) as 110,500 people.
In the meantime, in October 2021, the EE backlog for these 3 programs was: 48,225 (CEC) + 51,147 (FSW) + 941 (FST) = 100,313 applicants who stuck in limbo.
Let us think, that by the end of 2021, IRCC will have sent N golden mails.
Thus, the number of (100,313 - N) backlogged applicants will remain in limbo on Jan, 1, and their PPRs will go to the 2022 statistics.
So, the number of possible ITAs which will take place in 2022 will be:
110,500 - (100,313 - N) = 10,187 + N,
where N is the number of COPRs sent between Oct, 27 and Dec, 31.

I see it like communicating vessels - more people get COPRs in 2021, more free space for ITAs in 2022.

And here we meet the point: what is the aim of IRCC?
I mean that if they're simple bureaucrats, they have already reached 90% of their 2022 target for EE. If IRCC gets that its 2021 target is unobtainable, they could decelerate the issuing of COPRs in 2021 and easily smear the remaining EE backlog on all 12 months of 2022 in order to keep working in pace but without burning buttocks. The number of 2022 ITAs will depend only on their agreement to fulfil social obligations. And Sean Frases is the only guy who can affect them. I mean that he ought to be a guy with a whip - I assume that Sean Fraser acknowledges that in 5 years we all will be legit citizens to vote. So, if I were him, I'd wanted us to be grateful citizens. His further actions could show how he plans to cast his future in Canadian politics.
So about 15-20k ITA's for 2022? PNP invites are enough for that. Quite a situation @Marco Mendicino has created.