Can you please elaborate. I want to understand which files are being given preference
FSW WORLDWIDE
- Thread starter js555
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I wonder what's the number for Nov/2021, since the so-called "PPR Rain" starts at November.Express Entry: IRCC finalizing over 14,000 CEC applications, and under 600 FSWP applications, per month
The Canadian Experience Class (CEC) accounts for 85 per cent of finalized Express Entry applications in 2021.
New IRCC data shows how the department is currently prioritizing Express Entry applications.
The data represents the number of permanent residence applications submitted under Express Entry that have been approved by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
Express Entry is the main way Canada welcomes economic class skilled immigrants. Candidates that meet the criteria of an Express Entry program can submit their profile onto IRCC’s website. Candidates receive a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score based on human capital criteria such as their age, education, language skills, and work experience. Approximately every two weeks, IRCC invites the highest scoring candidates to apply for permanent residence. Such candidates then have 60 days to submit their permanent residence application to IRCC. Once IRCC approves the application, a candidate receives a Confirmation of Permanent Residence (COPR) which enables them to officially land in Canada as a permanent residence. The landing process can entail a COPR holder that was residing in Canada as a temporary resident converting their legal status to permanent residence. It can also entail an individual arriving from abroad with their COPR to become a permanent resident.
IRCC has made significant changes to its Express Entry policies amid the pandemic. The department is currently pursuing a plan to land 401,000 new permanent residents this year. At the start of 2021, it made the decision to focus on transitioning more temporary residents to permanent residence to give it a better shot of achieving its 401,000 immigrant target. As a result, it has only invited Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates under Express Entry this year. This is a major departure from precedent since the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) accounted for some 45 per cent of successful Express Entry candidates before the pandemic. IRCC has made this temporary shift in policy for two reasons. First, it argues that because some 90 per cent of CEC candidates currently reside in Canada during the pandemic, they are less likely to face COVID-related disruptions that would impede their ability to complete their permanent residence landings in 2021. Second, IRCC continues to invite PNP candidates to help provinces across the country address their labour market needs.
Another impact of this shift is IRCC has not been inviting the highest-ranking candidates among the entire Express Entry pool, as it did prior to the pandemic, but rather it has invited the highest-ranking CEC and PNP candidates. This has caused overall CRS cut-off scores to decline as the department aimed to invite as many CEC candidates as possible to support its immigration target for this year. The most notable draw of the year came on February 13 when IRCC invited 27,332 CEC candidates to apply for permanent residence, a feat it achieved by setting the CRS cut-off score at just 75. To put this into perspective, this draw was almost six times larger than the previous record (Express Entry has existed since 2015), and the cut-off score was nearly 400 points lower than what it usually was prior to the pandemic.
CIC News has obtained data from IRCC showing that the CEC is accounting for some 85 per cent of all finalized Express Entry applications this year. Between January and October, IRCC issued COPRs to 108,860 CEC applicants. The department has issued 12,514 COPRs to PNP candidates (about 10 per cent of all COPRs issued to Express Entry applicants this year).
The group most negatively impacted are FSWP candidates. They are recipients of just 6,795 COPRs this year. This is only 5 per cent of all COPRs issued to Express Entry candidates this year, about 9 times less than what it was prior to the pandemic.
IRCC got off to a slow start to the year as it was finalizing between 7,000 and 10,000 Express Entry applications per month through to May. In June, this nearly doubled, and IRCC has maintained a high pace of Express Entry application processing in the second half of this year. CEC candidates are by far the greatest beneficiaries of the increased processing capacity. IRCC has also increased the number of PNP applications it is finalizing but it still is not at the same level it processed for PNP candidates in January. The data suggests IRCC has diverted its resources to processing as many CEC applications as it can as it seeks to fulfil its 401,000 newcomer goal.
There has been little improvement in the number of FSWP applications processed. In September and October, IRCC finalized under 600 FSWP applications in each of those months.
IRCC indicates it currently has a backlog of 1.8 million permanent and temporary residence applications. This includes just under 100,000 Express Entry applications as of October 27. Assuming IRCC maintains its current pace, it will have processed all of the some 48,000 CEC applications remaining by January 2022. The department has indicated it would like to cut its Express Entry inventory by more than half before considering resuming invitations to CEC and FSWP candidates. IRCC held 27 CEC draws this year but has paused them since September 14. Meanwhile, FSWP candidates have not been drawn from the pool since December 23, 2020. There were some 165,000 FSWP candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2021, which means they represent some 85 per cent of all current Express Entry candidates.
IRCC is well on its way to achieving its immigration target this year. It has landed nearly 314,000 permanent residents through to October, and in recent months has been landing over 45,000 per month. The department is currently in the process of determining Canada’s immigration levels target for 2022, as well as what Express Entry strategy to pursue next year. We can expect to learn more in the coming months. Major announcements still to come include the issuance of mandate letters to each federal minister, including immigration minister Sean Fraser. In addition, Fraser will unveil Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan 2023-2025 by February 10th. The mandate letter and new levels plan will provide stakeholders with more guidance on IRCC’s policy priorities in 2022 and beyond.
On myimmitracker, there are 35 PPR records on Nov/2021, while only 3 in Oct/2021.
'GET OFF YOUR ASS-ETS, TRUDEAU': PM nailed on rising housing costs during his reign
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rises during Question Period, Wednesday, December 1, 2021 in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is called out over the rising cost of housing during his tenure by Conservative Member of Parliament Matt Jeneroux.
Has Trudeau destroyed our housing market?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rises during Question Period, Wednesday, December 1, 2021 in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is called out over the rising cost of housing during his tenure by Conservative Member of Parliament Matt Jeneroux.
Has Trudeau destroyed our housing market?
Well
This is really good data. They will clear half their EE inventory by end of Jan, having cleared almost all CEC and some FSW. My guess is still that they will resume draws in Feb, and they will have at least 2 month buffer between ITA to AOR and then MEP, so they would only have to look at new apps in April. That would give them time to clear most FSW.Express Entry: IRCC finalizing over 14,000 CEC applications, and under 600 FSWP applications, per month
The Canadian Experience Class (CEC) accounts for 85 per cent of finalized Express Entry applications in 2021.
New IRCC data shows how the department is currently prioritizing Express Entry applications.
The data represents the number of permanent residence applications submitted under Express Entry that have been approved by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
Express Entry is the main way Canada welcomes economic class skilled immigrants. Candidates that meet the criteria of an Express Entry program can submit their profile onto IRCC’s website. Candidates receive a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score based on human capital criteria such as their age, education, language skills, and work experience. Approximately every two weeks, IRCC invites the highest scoring candidates to apply for permanent residence. Such candidates then have 60 days to submit their permanent residence application to IRCC. Once IRCC approves the application, a candidate receives a Confirmation of Permanent Residence (COPR) which enables them to officially land in Canada as a permanent residence. The landing process can entail a COPR holder that was residing in Canada as a temporary resident converting their legal status to permanent residence. It can also entail an individual arriving from abroad with their COPR to become a permanent resident.
IRCC has made significant changes to its Express Entry policies amid the pandemic. The department is currently pursuing a plan to land 401,000 new permanent residents this year. At the start of 2021, it made the decision to focus on transitioning more temporary residents to permanent residence to give it a better shot of achieving its 401,000 immigrant target. As a result, it has only invited Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates under Express Entry this year. This is a major departure from precedent since the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) accounted for some 45 per cent of successful Express Entry candidates before the pandemic. IRCC has made this temporary shift in policy for two reasons. First, it argues that because some 90 per cent of CEC candidates currently reside in Canada during the pandemic, they are less likely to face COVID-related disruptions that would impede their ability to complete their permanent residence landings in 2021. Second, IRCC continues to invite PNP candidates to help provinces across the country address their labour market needs.
Another impact of this shift is IRCC has not been inviting the highest-ranking candidates among the entire Express Entry pool, as it did prior to the pandemic, but rather it has invited the highest-ranking CEC and PNP candidates. This has caused overall CRS cut-off scores to decline as the department aimed to invite as many CEC candidates as possible to support its immigration target for this year. The most notable draw of the year came on February 13 when IRCC invited 27,332 CEC candidates to apply for permanent residence, a feat it achieved by setting the CRS cut-off score at just 75. To put this into perspective, this draw was almost six times larger than the previous record (Express Entry has existed since 2015), and the cut-off score was nearly 400 points lower than what it usually was prior to the pandemic.
CIC News has obtained data from IRCC showing that the CEC is accounting for some 85 per cent of all finalized Express Entry applications this year. Between January and October, IRCC issued COPRs to 108,860 CEC applicants. The department has issued 12,514 COPRs to PNP candidates (about 10 per cent of all COPRs issued to Express Entry applicants this year).
The group most negatively impacted are FSWP candidates. They are recipients of just 6,795 COPRs this year. This is only 5 per cent of all COPRs issued to Express Entry candidates this year, about 9 times less than what it was prior to the pandemic.
IRCC got off to a slow start to the year as it was finalizing between 7,000 and 10,000 Express Entry applications per month through to May. In June, this nearly doubled, and IRCC has maintained a high pace of Express Entry application processing in the second half of this year. CEC candidates are by far the greatest beneficiaries of the increased processing capacity. IRCC has also increased the number of PNP applications it is finalizing but it still is not at the same level it processed for PNP candidates in January. The data suggests IRCC has diverted its resources to processing as many CEC applications as it can as it seeks to fulfil its 401,000 newcomer goal.
There has been little improvement in the number of FSWP applications processed. In September and October, IRCC finalized under 600 FSWP applications in each of those months.
IRCC indicates it currently has a backlog of 1.8 million permanent and temporary residence applications. This includes just under 100,000 Express Entry applications as of October 27. Assuming IRCC maintains its current pace, it will have processed all of the some 48,000 CEC applications remaining by January 2022. The department has indicated it would like to cut its Express Entry inventory by more than half before considering resuming invitations to CEC and FSWP candidates. IRCC held 27 CEC draws this year but has paused them since September 14. Meanwhile, FSWP candidates have not been drawn from the pool since December 23, 2020. There were some 165,000 FSWP candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2021, which means they represent some 85 per cent of all current Express Entry candidates.
IRCC is well on its way to achieving its immigration target this year. It has landed nearly 314,000 permanent residents through to October, and in recent months has been landing over 45,000 per month. The department is currently in the process of determining Canada’s immigration levels target for 2022, as well as what Express Entry strategy to pursue next year. We can expect to learn more in the coming months. Major announcements still to come include the issuance of mandate letters to each federal minister, including immigration minister Sean Fraser. In addition, Fraser will unveil Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan 2023-2025 by February 10th. The mandate letter and new levels plan will provide stakeholders with more guidance on IRCC’s policy priorities in 2022 and beyond.
I imagine Nov FSW is at similar rate as the last few months of PNP, because CIO started releasing ppr for outland PNP a few months earlier than Ottawa did for FSW. So from the data, its probably 1500-2000.
After clearing half backlog and most of CEC applications, how much is the inventory of FSW will be left? and will it be possible for them to finalize all of it by April in one quarter?
D
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Guest
If they finish all CEC applications, then that work force will shift to FSW. All else being kept constant, it's possible that they'll wrap up the majority of FSW apps before April (the non complex ones). But that's the key point. This is under the assumption that they don't make drastic overnight changes that push FSW to the back of the line again. I don't think that'll happen, but it's a very real possibility.
So, here are my calculations and thought:
There're two main interesting points, as I think:
1) The fact is that we don't know the actual number of persons per application, so it's hard to calculate how the backlog reduces. Someone have 0 dependend relatives, someone has more than 5. For further calculations, let us think that an average application has 2 persons in total. As a result, there will be just 1 COPRs for both of them. So, according to this estimation, the data for November should approximately be:
According to my calculations, it's highly likely, that almost half of applications stuck in the CEC backlog was finalized in November. If the tempo remains the same, it will probably take amout 1 month to clear the CEC backlog if the COPR issuing tempo doesn't fall.
2) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a prediction:
Well, of course we should take into account that is an extremely rough prediction. I think that there's a chance that the FSW backlog may be cleared around March, 2022, if the current tendency remains.
Nevertheless, as we all know, IRCC can re-assign its officers from one program to another, so only God knows what to expect.
So, I see the picture this way:
- The CEC backlog may be cleared in Jan, 2022.
- All officers responsible for CEC may be re-assigned for finalizing PNP and FSW applications.
- Thus, the FSW and PNP backlogs will have been cleared by March, 2022.
- So, new FSW ITAs may be expected in March-April.
| Month | COPRs CEC | COPRs CEC ImmiTracker | COPRs FSW | COPRs FSW ImmiTracker | COPRs PNP | COPRs PNP ImmiTracker | Backlog CEC on Oct, 27 | Backlog FSW on Oct, 27 | Backlog PNP on Oct, 27 |
| Sep, 2021 | 14364 | 66 | 468 | 7 | 1834 | 19 | ? | ? | ? |
| Oct, 2021 | 14282 | 57 | 586 | 3 | 1596 | 14 | 48225 | 51147 | 71509 |
| Nov, 2021 | ? | 33 | ? | 43 | ? | 20 | ? | ? | ? |
There're two main interesting points, as I think:
1) The fact is that we don't know the actual number of persons per application, so it's hard to calculate how the backlog reduces. Someone have 0 dependend relatives, someone has more than 5. For further calculations, let us think that an average application has 2 persons in total. As a result, there will be just 1 COPRs for both of them. So, according to this estimation, the data for November should approximately be:
| Month | COPRs CEC | COPRs FSW | COPRs PNP | Backlog CEC | Backlog FSW | Backlog PNP |
| Oct, 2021 | 14282 | 586 | 1596 | 48225 | 51147 | 71509 |
| Nov, 2021 | ? | ? | ? | 19661 | 49975 | 68317 |
According to my calculations, it's highly likely, that almost half of applications stuck in the CEC backlog was finalized in November. If the tempo remains the same, it will probably take amout 1 month to clear the CEC backlog if the COPR issuing tempo doesn't fall.
2) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a prediction:
| Month | COPRs FSW | COPRs PNP | Backlog FSW | Backlog PNP |
| Oct, 2021 | 586 | 1596 | 51147 | 71509 |
| Nov, 2021 (prediction) | 5860 | 1596 | 39427 | 68317 |
| Dec, 2021 (prediction) | 5860 | 1596 | 27707 | 65125 |
| Jan, 2022 (prediction) | 5860 | 1596 | 15987 | 61933 |
| Feb, 2022 (prediction) | 5860 | 1596 | 4267 | 58741 |
Well, of course we should take into account that is an extremely rough prediction. I think that there's a chance that the FSW backlog may be cleared around March, 2022, if the current tendency remains.
Nevertheless, as we all know, IRCC can re-assign its officers from one program to another, so only God knows what to expect.
So, I see the picture this way:
- The CEC backlog may be cleared in Jan, 2022.
- All officers responsible for CEC may be re-assigned for finalizing PNP and FSW applications.
- Thus, the FSW and PNP backlogs will have been cleared by March, 2022.
- So, new FSW ITAs may be expected in March-April.
They will probably maintain that processing rate of 15-18k non PNP EE for FSW once they finish CEC. TR2PR is also almost cleared, as they had only 17k by end of october and will probably finish that by the end of the year, though those resources tends to be used for TR applications afterwards. What could harm priorities is that new variant, but its been 2 weeks and cases have spiked, but no serious cases. There hasn't been reported deaths yet of the variant, and the way media is in panic mode, if there was a death, it would be the highlight of the world. I honestly don't see this being worse than Delta. It probably will just cause reinfection to those with natural immunity, which is what most in SA are doing, with mild symptoms.
The data released gives COPRs as in persons and not cases. 14282 people in cec received COPR(including dependents) in october and the backlog is 48225 total people(including dependent) at the end of october. So the Backlog in the end of Nov for CEC should be 33943 if they processed the same number in Nov as they did in Oct.
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