FSW WORLDWIDE

[Windsor37]

Errr... there are numbers already known.

In around 2019 they were doing 27 K apps a month.
In August they did 29K apps a month.

There are about half a million PR applications remaining to be processed.

If we use 29K / month instead of 40K assuming of course they are all dedicated to EE processing, and assuming they will only do PNP draws. CEC, and all program draws paused, you'll end up around Nov-Dec 2022, to clear up the backlog.

 

[GandiBaat]

If we use 29K month instead of 40K assuming of course are dedicated to EE processing, and assuming they will only do PNP draws. CEC, and all program draws paused, you'll end up around Nov-Dec 2022, to clear up the backlog.

errr...

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/transparency/committees/cimm-jun-02-2021/impact-processing.html

• For applications that can be finalized, IRCC’s operations continues to catch up to pre-COVID permanent residence application processing levels of final decisions.
  • For example, in April 2021, we completed over 29,200 final decisions across all business lines compared to 27,900 in February 2020 – the last full month before COVID restrictions were introduced.

 

[GandiBaat]

562/29.2 = 19.24 month ;close to 2 years of backlog

assume they do no accept no new app, its 2024 jan when they will be completely done.

 

[Windsor37]

errr...

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/transparency/committees/cimm-jun-02-2021/impact-processing.html

• For applications that can be finalized, IRCC’s operations continues to catch up to pre-COVID permanent residence application processing levels of final decisions.
  • For example, in April 2021, we completed over 29,200 final decisions across all business lines compared to 27,900 in February 2020 – the last full month before COVID restrictions were introduced.

Wait my math was off, 562K / 29K ~ 19-20 months. So around Jun - Jul 2023.

 

[GandiBaat]

Wait my math was off, 562K / 29K ~ 19-20 months. So around Jun - Jul 2023.

yeah. if they slack a bit its will be jan 2024.

 

[Windsor37]

562/29.2 = 19.24 month ;close to 2 years of backlog

assume they do no accept no new app, its 2024 jan when they will be completely done.

ok where did you get Jan 2024?

11 (since it's practically November now) + 19.24 = 29.24 - 24 (2 years) = 6.24 ~ Jun 2021 + 2 years = Jun 2023.

EDIT:

yeah. if they slack a bit its will be jan 2024.

Ok, got it.

 

[GandiBaat]

ok where did you get Jan 2024?

11 (since it's practically November now) + 19.24 = 29.24 - 24 (2 years) = 6.24 ~ Jun 2021 + 2 years = Jun 2023.

Government maths works on rounding up so 19 months become 24 months or 2 years. This year started so it has ended... so you have entire 2022 and 2023 dedicated for backlog.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/10/27/new-immigration-minister-inherits-backlogs-migrant-worker-issues.html

"As of July 31, more than 748,000 people had a pending temporary residence application as students, workers, or visitors, close to 562,000 were waiting for permanent residence, and the backlog for citizenship was around 376,000, the Toronto Star reported."

Ther article is from yesterday.

I would like to know how the reporter came to these numbers.

Up until March 2020, everything was working according to dealines, and now for 1.5 years they amassed half a million PR application with what exactly?

Also, we shouldn't compare 2020 with 2021 because IRCC made a lot of hiring this year, so they have a bigger workforce.

The information provided by the journalist is very vague.

 

[Windsor37]

I would like to know how the reporter came to these numbers.

Up until March 2020, everything was working according to dealines, and now for 1.5 years they amassed half a million PR application with what exactly?

Also, we shouldn't compare 2020 with 2021 because IRCC made a lot of hiring this year, so they have a bigger workforce.

The information provided by the journalist is very vague.

You can try and ask the journalist, but my guess is that they invoked the access to information act to get the number. If you're a resident, or citizen or know someone who is, you can try and ask the government what's the latest numbers are. I think this is the same act that the GCMS providers invoke to get your GCMS note.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Lets get to analyzing now, because this speculating nonsense is worthless.

According to the document below:

Authorizations and Visas Issued for Permanent Residents (in Persons) by Month, January 2018 to August 2021
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/9b34e712-513f-44e9-babf-9df4f7256550/resource/07139405-03f0-40f8-8dbc-bc6025fce2ab?inner_span=True

There were 42,355 Authorizations and Visas issued in August 2021

• January 28,107
• February 22,111
• March 24,173
• April 23,260
• May 20,496
• June 39,094
• July 40,251
• August 42,355

A total of 239,847 Authorizations and Visas were issued in 2021.

In 2020 were issued 171,005 and in 2019 were issued 340,266.

According to the document below:

Applications Received for Permanent Residency (in Persons) by Month, January 2018 to August 2021
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/9b34e712-513f-44e9-babf-9df4f7256550/resource/fdc69618-dd90-4f38-b040-3046ee6657db?inner_span=True

In 2021 there were 255,312 applications received. In 2020 there were 328,266 and in 2019 there were 432,095.

A total of 1,015,673.

So, by doing a simple math here:

(Applications received) - (Authorizations and Visas issued) = 1,015,673 - 751118 = 264,555 applications.

Should we say that 10% of them were rejected?
So, that will leave us with 238,100 pending applications to be assessed.

At 40,000 a month processing speed, all the applications would be assessed by the end of April 2022, excluding the complex ones.

If anyone has anything to add or argue, please do!

 

[apollonoob]

Lets get to analyzing now, because this speculating nonsense is worthless.

According to the document below:

Authorizations and Visas Issued for Permanent Residents (in Persons) by Month, January 2018 to August 2021
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/9b34e712-513f-44e9-babf-9df4f7256550/resource/07139405-03f0-40f8-8dbc-bc6025fce2ab?inner_span=True

There were 42,355 Authorizations and Visas issued in August 2021

• January 28,107
• February 22,111
• March 24,173
• April 23,260
• May 20,496
• June 39,094
• July 40,251
• August 42,355

A total of 239,847 Authorizations and Visas were issued in 2021.

In 2020 were issued 171,005 and in 2019 were issued 340,266.

According to the document below:

Applications Received for Permanent Residency (in Persons) by Month, January 2018 to August 2021
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/9b34e712-513f-44e9-babf-9df4f7256550/resource/fdc69618-dd90-4f38-b040-3046ee6657db?inner_span=True

In 2021 there were 255,312 applications received. In 2020 there were 328,266 and in 2019 there were 432,095.

A total of 1,015,673.

So, by doing a simple math here:

(Applications received) - (Authorizations and Visas issued) = 1,015,673 - 751118 = 264,555 applications.

Should we say that 10% of them were rejected?
So, that will leave us with 238,100 pending applications to be assessed.

At 40,000 a month processing speed, all the applications would be assessed by the end of April 2022, excluding the complex ones.

If anyone has anything to add or argue, please do!

If one application with 4 family members, we are expecting 4 visas will be issued , right? So for this application, if it is regarded as one application or 4 applications?

 

[ElvisRamaj]

If one application with 4 family members, we are expecting 4 visas will be issued , right? So for this application, if it is regarded as one application or 4 applications?

It is regarded as 4 applications!

 

[GaryChapman VP]

If one application with 4 family members, we are expecting 4 visas will be issued , right? So for this application, if it is regarded as one application or 4 applications?

Yes. The dataset provided by IRCC is not headcount based.

Where the article states “people waiting for permanent residence” the sheet provided by IRCC shows the application numbers.

However the processing speed standard, which we see on an average based on previous months can be applied across the months for an estimate.

 

[GaryChapman VP]

It is regarded as 4 applications!

Are we sure one application does not include family members?

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Are we sure one application does not include family members?

Yes, because the title of the documents says in Persons.