I'm not sure if this is the correct thread to post this query, but I'd appreciate some inputs on this:
Since we can see a decrease in the CRS cutoff in each round, what do all of you predict to be the lowest CRS cutoff possible before the new NOC-specific draws are conducted? Also, is there any news of when the NOC-specific draws would "possibly" begin from? The reason for asking these queries is to know if this is a good time for someone to enter the Express Entry profile, considering the new changes in the system which are to be expected.
Thanks.
No one knows for sure. Given the trend over the last couple of months, it's reasonable to expect that CRS threshold will continue going down around 4 point in every draw. There should be 4 more draws before Christmas, so I think the threshold will drop to around 480.
Things to bear in mind:
- There are almost 20,000 applicants in 470-480 bracket, so once we hit 480, threshold may come down only around 2 points per draw.
- The draws won't be increasing forever. Biggest draws were 5,000 (not counting one-off CEC draw) so we're almost back at this level. The last time IRCC did those big 5,000 draws, they then stopped FSW for 18 months, so I guess you could speculate that they're drawing as many applicants as possible (within reason) before NOC-specific draws.
- NOC-specific draws are supposed to start in early 2023. I heard something about March-April but I'm not sure if it's true.
In short - I think CRS cut off will drop to around 480 by the end of the year. Anything beyond that is a complete unknown.