FSW 2014 Applicants Timeline- Lets Network Here.

[grooby]

You can actually eliminate 1. from the calculation, thus reducing the uncertainty.
There's a very useful chart to visualize it, "Application Status Dynamics" on the Charts tab. Length of each bar on it is proportional to number of applications in the spreadsheet. So in visual terms, it accounts for "2. Number of SS apps received on each particular day", and calculating 3 as well as the estimate just means drawing a straight line that touches first reported fee charge dates for each particular App Received date.

In FSW 2013 it was a straight line and then it slowed down after a few months. In our case, it was a straight line and then it sped up (as shown by the shorter line). First I thought it's just a noise, but after May 26 applications charging has started today, it was too obvious that CIC has increased their speed.



So this is basically a visualization of how the charge date estimates are calculated in the spreadsheet.

THere's no denying that this is the most awesome chart ever and I look it up almost on a daily basis....... !! The SS is very informative and charts are awesome !! I was just trying to give my 2 cents worth ...

Keep up the good work bro .. !

But I say that by the end of September or first week of October, I strongly feel that you would need to update your charge estimates again ....lets wait and watch for another 3 weeks....

Cheers to a speedy CIC and lesser apps/day and more posts/day on this forum... !!

 

[palakpatel911]

@grooby,
what u will do afterall collecting beers ?
anyways r u not going to drink it, so plz pass on to me ...

Oh my dear friend Mikey.... !! How could I forget to Congratulate you ..... ?? My heartiest congratulations to you now and always brother ... !!!! a well deserved +1 as well...
......
......
......
......
Now give me my second beer ... !! 8)

 

[aha2174]

Of all the calculation I've been doing and the numbers tend to hover in my head.. I'll put the numbers as follows for the CIC process moving forward taking into account the drop in applications after 22nd May and 16th June:
NOC2174: 60-70applications/week after 22nd May and decreasing further after 16th June
NOC1112: 40-50applications/week after 22nd May and decreasing considerably further after 16th June

So, NOC2174 should fill by early august and NOC1112 by end of August. You should be able to see this in the form of the number of accepted applications by CIC in their CAP updates and the difference between the two NOC should begin to grow from next CAP update onwards(15th Sep)
Current difference stands at about 19 (518 & 537). Previous CIC update difference between NOC112, NOC2174 respectively:
8/12/2014: 198, 197 = -1
8/18/2014: 292, 313 = 21
8/25/2014: 382, 404 = 22
9/02/2014: 460, 481 = 21
9/08/2014: 518, 537 = 19

Expecting this difference to considerably widen with 2174 leading the way......

Sir.. The difference you are calculating is totally irrelevant... You should calculate as below..

For 2174..
8/12/2014: 197
8/18/2014: 313 ( Difference : 313-197 = 116)
8/25/2014: 404 ( Difference : 404-313 = 91)
9/02/2014: 481 ( Difference : 481-404 = 77)
9/08/2014: 537 ( Difference : 537-481 = 56)

And remember that this total 537 for 2174 is for 15 working days. 1st May till 20th or 21st May... with huge application on 7th May alone...
So as per this in next each and every CAP update there should be an average increment of approx. 50... But application received date will increment by 1 or 2..

 

[grooby]

Hi Grooby,

I must admire your promptness. You are doing a wonderful job.

I am less aware of group rules. How to give 100 points, please guide me

Come over to Gurgaon some time, will have a drink together

Lalit

Yo Lalit, I'm based out of Gurgaon.... !
but to give me a +1 you gotta click on the [Good] link below my username on the left pane. But you will only be able to do that after you have completed 20 posts... and even after that you can give me a +1([Good]) only once a week ... So i'll wait for your posts to turn 20 soon ...

 

[palakpatel911]

AAHHAA,
sorry @GROOBY, i agree with @aha2174,
his math makes sence,

Good work BRO,
KARMA ALLOWS ME +1 FOR YOU
here u go with plus one...

Sir.. The difference you are calculating is totally irrelevant... You should calculate as below..

For 2174..
8/12/2014: 197
8/18/2014: 313 ( Difference : 313-197 = 116)
8/25/2014: 404 ( Difference : 404-313 = 91)
9/02/2014: 481 ( Difference : 481-404 = 77)
9/08/2014: 537 ( Difference : 537-481 = 56)

And remember that this total 537 for 2174 is for 15 working days. 1st May till 20th or 21st May... with huge application on 7th May alone...
So as per this in next each and every CAP update there should be an average increment of approx. 50... But application received date will increment by 1 or 2..

 

[ShahPrateek]

REPOSTING!!

Dear Forumites!!

I have received PER yesterday.... I would like to ask you all few queries:

1) My passport doesnot have my wife's name ...( As it was issued before marriage). Do I need to get that updated... I mean is it mandatory???

2) As per the trends when can we expect MR PCC & RPRF??

3) How to get PCC from commissioner of Police??

4) What amount of funds I need to carry to canada when I land?


Thanks in Advance for your valuable reply


Regards,
Prateek

 

[palakpatel911]

@grooby,

NAUGHTY FELLA...
don't keep asking for +1, if KARMA is in ur favor, any how you will get it,

Yo Lalit, I'm based out of Gurgaon.... !
but to give me a +1 you gotta click on the [Good] link below my username on the left pane. But you will only be able to do that after you have completed 20 posts... and even after that you can give me a +1([Good]) only once a week ... So i'll wait for your posts to turn 20 soon ...

 

[grooby]

It sped up as I courried CIO a new plug socket, a new card machine and a new computer for PER and some Starbucks coffee cards lmao

Mikey.... u're up an running as you've been drinking red bulls all day .... what difference can a CC charge make ...!!!
who would have thought that paying $550 could bring so much happiness to a person ....

 

[abhi228]

Congrats goodhope, VRAA, arashabt & R2A !

PER Received 8)

App date 21/5 DD en-cashed 3/9 according to the letter

Cc charged
2133
26 May applicant ;D

Wooohooooo, received PER just 5 min ago - 22 May applicant - CC charged date : 5 Sep.

Thank you all for your help and sharing valuable information!

:-* :-* :-* :-* :-* :-* :-*

CC Charged!
App date: May 22th

Admins please update The SS!

CC charged few mins back....

I'm a 26th May'14 applicant (NOC: 2174)

Dear admins,
Kindly update the spreadsheet.

 

[aha2174]

AAHHAA,
sorry @ GROOBY, i agree with @ aha2174,
his math makes sence,

Good work BRO,
KARMA ALLOWS ME +1 FOR YOU
here u go with plus one...

Thanks... DO KARMA.. DON'T CHINTA for the Frooti :-* :-*

 

[dmitrych]

But I say that by the end of September or first week of October, I strongly feel that you would need to update your charge estimates again ....lets wait and watch for another 3 weeks....

I'm not so sure of that, but let's wait and see Good thing about this estimate is that it's based on the latest known factual information as much as possible.

 

[grooby]

Sir.. The difference you are calculating is totally irrelevant... You should calculate as below..

For 2174..
8/12/2014: 197
8/18/2014: 313 ( Difference : 313-197 = 116)
8/25/2014: 404 ( Difference : 404-313 = 91)
9/02/2014: 481 ( Difference : 481-404 = 77)
9/08/2014: 537 ( Difference : 537-481 = 56)

And remember that this total 537 for 2174 is for 15 working days. 1st May till 20th or 21st May... with huge application on 7th May alone...
So as per this in next each and every CAP update there should be an average increment of approx. 50... But application received date will increment by 1 or 2..

I'm looking at difference in the two and you're looking at one NOC.... My point is that NOC2174 will fill up by july end/august first week and NOC1112 by 3rd week of august....

Lets just agree to disagree on this one as to what we are looking at ...



 

 

[grooby]

Sir.. The difference you are calculating is totally irrelevant... You should calculate as below..

For 2174..
8/12/2014: 197
8/18/2014: 313 ( Difference : 313-197 = 116)
8/25/2014: 404 ( Difference : 404-313 = 91)
9/02/2014: 481 ( Difference : 481-404 = 77)
9/08/2014: 537 ( Difference : 537-481 = 56)

And remember that this total 537 for 2174 is for 15 working days. 1st May till 20th or 21st May... with huge application on 7th May alone...
So as per this in next each and every CAP update there should be an average increment of approx. 50... But application received date will increment by 1 or 2..

for the last week... the 56 applications are for only 4 working days... so that makes it 70 for the whole week (if there were 5 working days) .. gotta take into account these little deviations as well... can make a huge difference in your analysis ...

also when you're looking at numbers you gotta leave out days .... when you say 537 applications are for the first 15 days.... it really doesnt make a point ... Please feel free to check out the total number of pending applications after 22nd May for both NOC2174 and NOC1112 till august end.... you will realize that they are lesser than the number currently processed in the SS... so if 50% relates to the currently processed... the rest should also fill in the remaining 46/48%...

 

[mikeypm]

Mikey.... u're up an running as you've been drinking red bulls all day .... what difference can a CC charge make ...
who would have thought that paying $550 could bring so much happiness to a person ....

$1100 as I have my girl with me in Canada

Yes the excite at having a credit card bill lol

 

[Optimist3]

zoooooooooooooooooooooooom

lucky 911 / Sep 11 - brought me Good news

Finally PER in inbox....
thanks all friends here, who motivated me and guided me thru my journey till today. & sure through the journey i will BE befitted the most from this FORUM & FORUMITES
BIG HUG 2 U ALL

got an email from CIC, couple hours ago...!


Palak Bhai........... 3 cheers!!

Many Congrats!! I know you must be in cloud 9. Have fun!!

+1 for you on this milestone.


Noc: 2174
App: 22-05-14
DD: 04-09-14
PER: 10-09-14

SPECIAL THANKS TO
@ Oscar, @ ashif, @ spicy, @ mikeypm, @ tangocharlie, @ optimist3, @ grooby, @ shahprateek, @ harka007, and others