I don't know why you guys are worrying so much and bearing such negative thoughts!!
I am 21st August applicant, that too for 2174!!
;D
I'll give you a little theory, first quoting 2 points from your post 1. till 20th May 200, 2. Cap will be filled by June, won't take even July apps
Now here's the thing, the Rush of apps is so high in the starting 2 weeks (say till 20 May) that seems you don't even have a clue about this, I recommend check out the Charts in the Spread Sheet for a start.. you can also download the sheet and filter the apps by your NOC and check out no. of apps each day for your NOC as well!! (eg. 23 apps alone received on a single 7th May day from sheet itself)
Anyways, let's forget this rush period and go by the standard average everyone usually uses, even if 200 is considered as average for every 15 days if not 20, Cap will still survive till mid of July!!
Moreover, since the average will not be so high post mid of May, the game will last much longer then mid of July!! If you believe me, you are totally safe!! 8)
If you don't, keep worrying till you find out!!
Chill & good luck!!