If you see in our spreadsheet even initially we have applicaiton @ 65-70 per week and later its reducing. . . .balkanada said:I wasn't trying to lower anyone's expectations here, actually I'm normally going towards the opposite, so I'm sorry If you interpreted my response in that way.
The number of 4% comes from the stats that we had for previous years - FSW 2011. At that time, all the people on this forum who applied for FSW2011 were about 4% of the global number of applicants. There is a google sheet file in which you can see that (I think you can find it as part of the signature of several users here). So that's our base value, from which we're guessing further.
The ratio of applicants on this forum and global applicants is kind of the biggest unknown that we're all trying to asses and figure out, since if we'd know that then we could infer when will the cap be met, is there still chance etc.
But we DON'T know that, we're just guessing, obviously some better, some worse, we'll know more in a month and even more in 2 months.
I couldn't agree more with you that the applications fell down rapidly and low after May/June, it's just that no one here knows if it's enough and for whom it will be quick enough. Good luck with your application and if you can - do it quickly and thoroughly.
everything will be clear after one or two CAP update form CIC. . . . hopefully this weed we have one