Fifth & Sixth Draw. Expecting 320+ score will get ITA

[carl321]

Re: Fifth & Sixth Draw. Expecting 320+ will get ITA

I don't see CIC conducting more than 2 draws per month (hence their 24 draws)

 

[Xfactor]

Re: Fifth & Sixth Draw. Expecting 320+ will get ITA

320 is too low a score, I for one don't think the score will be lower than 400 the first half of 2015.
Reasoning behind that is:

• There are supposed to be quite a few people with LMIAs applying under the FST category that barely have over ~720 points.
• There are people with LMIAs that found out about EE a few weeks into 2015 and were busy gathering mandatory documents (like taking the IELTS or CELPIP) but will create their profiles in time for the next draws; I hope it's not indicative of Canada as a whole but more than half of the people with LMIAs in my company are in this case.
• There are people who applied for their LMIAs late 2014 or early 2015 and will be receiving them in the next months.
• Once the threshold goes below 550 you will see a lot more competition as many more people are in this situation compared to people with LMIAs. So even a few points will be making a difference. I expect draws to be very tight, as in the gap between min score of current draw and min score of past draw being very small.

Yup, I have a LMIA but just did my IELTS and waiting on the results to submit my profile. I am sure there are more people in my position out there as well. I will be able to submit my EE next week hopefully in time for the next draw. I should get about a 983 score total.

 

[rojiv94]

Please share your thoughts

 

[MedZed]

I wanna do a calculation:

The first draw cutoff score was 886.
The 4th draw was 735.

886 - 735 = 151

151 (points) / 4 (Draws) = 37.75 --> It means in every round,37.75 points have been dropped as average.
Now I assume 37.75 ~ 20 in the most pessimistic view.From now on, the are 20 rounds left. So 20(rounds)*20(points) = 400 points.
and 735 - 400 = 335 !

They picked ~ 4000 applicants so far and if they want to meet the 2015 quota for FSW it means 50000-4000=46000 applicant should be invited.
46000/20=2300 applicants in each draw!

Finally I guess if the FSW cap for 2015 wouldn't be reached till the #24 draw and the pool wouldn't be too crowded ,by picking 2300 applicants per draw, something around 340+ applicants might be invited. So the next draw's cutoff score won't be lower than 700!

It was just a guess according to the available data we have.

 

[atmtaatmta]

I wanna do a calculation:

The first draw cutoff score was 886.
The 4th draw was 735.

886 - 735 = 151

151 (points) / 4 (Draws) = 37.75 --> It means in every round,37.75 points have been dropped as average.
Now I assume 37.75 ~ 20 in the most pessimistic view.From now on, the are 20 rounds left. So 20(rounds)*20(points) = 400 points.
and 735 - 400 = 335 !

It doesn't work that way.

 

[rojiv94]

I strongly disagree with your calculation.
But I must say, you are good in mathematics

 

[CANCANADA]

I wanna do a calculation:

The first draw cutoff score was 886.
The 4th draw was 735.

886 - 735 = 151

151 (points) / 4 (Draws) = 37.75 --> It means in every round,37.75 points have been dropped as average.
Now I assume 37.75 ~ 20 in the most pessimistic view.From now on, the are 20 rounds left. So 20(rounds)*20(points) = 400 points.
and 735 - 400 = 335 !

They picked ~ 4000 applicants so far and if they want to meet the 2015 quota for FSW it means 50000-4000=46000 applicant should be invited.
46000/20=2300 applicants in each draw!

Finally I guess if the FSW cap for 2015 wouldn't be reached till the #24 draw and the pool wouldn't be too crowded ,by picking 2300 applicants per draw, something around 340+ applicants might be invited. So the next draw's cutoff score won't be lower than 700!

It was just a guess according to the available data we have.

Cant work this way MedZed.
Scoring between 560-695 is next to impossible (Ive tried mostly all permutation combinations) hence most of the applicants in the pool are between 300-500 points, so the cutoff won't go down proportionately by approx. 37.5 points for each draw.

My prediction for the 5th draw would be 10-12Th March and 700 points would be minimum cutoff. If the cutoff falls below 700 then it would go down to 530 directly as scores between 560-695 are just not possible to achieve. Beyond the scores falling to 530 the further decrease in CRS points cut off would be very marginal, as most of the people in the pool are at scores between 350-500 and with every point drop there would be a significant number of applicants in the pool, and even not to forget all the fresh applicants in the pool with LMIA's and job offers(as job bank would be operational by April hopefully)

 

[fpnc2983]

Re: Fifth & Sixth Draw. Expecting 320+ will get ITA

I don't see CIC conducting more than 2 draws per month (hence their 24 draws)

they drew three times feb

 

[MedZed]

Cant work this way MedZed.
Scoring between 560-695 is next to impossible (Ive tried mostly all permutation combinations) hence most of the applicants in the pool are between 300-500 points, so the cutoff won't go down proportionately by approx. 37.5 points for each draw.

My prediction for the 5th draw would be 10-12Th March and 700 points would be minimum cutoff. If the cutoff falls below 700 then it would go down to 530 directly as scores between 560-695 are just not possible to achieve. Beyond the scores falling to 530 the further decrease in CRS points cut off would be very marginal, as most of the people in the pool are at scores between 350-500 and with every point drop there would be a significant number of applicants in the pool, and even not to forget all the fresh applicants in the pool with LMIA's and job offers(as job bank would be operational by April hopefully)

I totally agree with you,the closest competition is between 350 to 500 applicants because 500+ applicants are guaranteed to be in 2015 quota.If the 6th draw's cutoff is 530 as you said,18 other draws will be left. BUT I have a question: How many points will be dropped by each draw in average you think ? 5? 10 ? 15 ? if you assume it 10,then 18*10=180 and 530-180= 350 again!

Let's start to figure it out .

 

[atmtaatmta]

I totally agree with you,the closest competition is between 350 to 500 applicants because 500+ applicants are guaranteed to be in 2015 quota.If the 6th draw's cutoff is 530 as you said,18 other draws will be left. BUT I have a question: How many points will be dropped by each draw in average you think ? 5? 10 ? 15 ? if you assume it 10,then 18*10=180 and 530-180= 350 again!

Let's start to figure it out .

Yeah, and in couple of years it will become negative.
After ITA score becomes lower, than 600, drops wil become smaller and smaller with each draw until at stabilizes at some number X. Then, all the draws will have score of X-20 .. X+20.
We cannot determine this X now.

 

[CANCANADA]

I totally agree with you,the closest competition is between 350 to 500 applicants because 500+ applicants are guaranteed to be in 2015 quota.If the 6th draw's cutoff is 530 as you said,18 other draws will be left. BUT I have a question: How many points will be dropped by each draw in average you think ? 5? 10 ? 15 ? if you assume it 10,then 18*10=180 and 530-180= 350 again!

Let's start to figure it out .

yups lets wait and watch .. but i'm sure score will never go down below 350!

 

[Marooned]

yups lets wait and watch .. but i'm sure score will never go down below 350!

It depends on the size of the pool and the numbers of the issued ITA's.
They want to meet the quota even if they run out the high scored applicants.Remember,everyone who has entered in the pool is eligible.

 

[CANCANADA]

It depends on the size of the pool and the numbers of the issued ITA's.
They want to meet the quota even if they run out the high scored applicants.Remember,everyone who has entered in the pool is eligible.

Just a slight difference of opinion Marooned

There are enough people in the pool and its growing every month! 3500+ ITA's have already been issued to candidates over 735 points and every month the number of people with LMIA's would be rising once the job bank opens up in April.

hence as u say "everyone who has entered in the pool is eligible" i would rather rephrase it to "everyone who has entered in the pool is eligible to be chosen provided they are among the top few scoring candidates"

 

[rojiv94]

Just a slight difference of opinion Marooned

There are enough people in the pool and its growing every month! 3500+ ITA's have already been issued to candidates over 735 points and every month the number of people with LMIA's would be rising once the job bank opens up in April.

hence as u say "everyone who has entered in the pool is eligible" i would rather rephrase it to "everyone who has entered in the pool is eligible to be chosen provided they are among the top few scoring candidates"

I have a correction on your comment.
"they are among the top scoring 285000 candidates". Not "top few scoring candidates"

 

[CANCANADA]

I have a correction on your comment.
"they are among the top scoring 285000 candidates". Not "top few"

rojiv94 260,000 to 285,000 are the total number of possible immigrants for this year to be considered by CIC, this number includes all classes but out of this total number FSW candidates would be only 51000 in number, hence i said "top few" taking in consideration only the FSW candidates in the EE pool.