Express Entry 34th Draw Forecast

[Wolverine17]

I believe that the minimum score will come back to 450-470 from time to time. Let's consider what the typical 450-470 person would look like:
- a married person
- with a master's degree
- in their 20s or early 30s
- spouse also has a master's degree
- both have overall IELTS scores 7-8
- both have several years of experience in NOC professions in their home country
- no Canadian experience/education/relatives/job offer

how typical does it look?
I agree

Now, with the growing proportion of people outside Canada in the draws (I'm not allowed to post links) I don't believe that the minimum score will remain significantly above 470. If it does that will mean that Canada only needs single PhD's with IELTS 9 band scores(the current rate at which people find LMIA offers doesn't imply they'll meet target immigration quotas using only candidates with offers)...

 

[jairichi]

I believe that the minimum score will come back to 450-470 from time to time. Let's consider what the typical 450-470 person would look like:
- a married person
- with a master's degree
- in their 20s or early 30s
- spouse also has a master's degree
- both have overall IELTS scores 7-8
- both have several years of experience in NOC professions in their home country
- no Canadian experience/education/relatives/job offer

how typical does it look?

Now, with the growing proportion of people outside Canada in the draws (I'm not allowed to post links) I don't believe that the minimum score will remain significantly above 470. If it does that will mean that Canada only needs single PhD's with IELTS 9 band scores(the current rate at which people find LMIA offers doesn't imply they'll meet target immigration quotas using only candidates with offers)...

The typical 450-470 person looks fine. But, it is not a requirement for Canada to meet immigration quotas.

 

[nighcrawler]

The typical 450-470 person looks fine. But, it is not a requirement for Canada to meet immigration quotas.

Well, that would be strange. My assumption is that Canadian government is planning its budget. Which is tied to taxes collected. Which are tied to amount of people (FTE's) in workforce. Which is tied to the current unemployment rate and migration. Obviously the link is not straightforward, and finishing below the target might not seem a big deal, but as a general rule, either the plan or the steps of carrying it out get adjusted.

 

[jairichi]

Well, that would be strange. My assumption is that Canadian government is planning its budget. Which is tied to taxes collected. Which are tied to amount of people (FTE's) in workforce. Which is tied to the current unemployment rate and migration. Obviously the link is not straightforward, and finishing below the target might not seem a big deal, but as a general rule, either the plan or the steps of carrying it out get adjusted.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/English/resources/publications/annual-report-2015/index.asp#2_1
Have a look at table 2. It is never a target that needs to be achieved or has to fall within their range. But, give them the flexibility by compensating using other classes of immigration.

 

[nighcrawler]

Have a look at table 2. It is never a target that needs to be achieved or has to fall within their range. But, give them the flexibility by compensating using other classes of immigration.

I see, so it's the total Economic Migration quota, where the actual result falls between high and low plans. It's interesting that the most prominent overrun is in the Canadian experience category. And the new data arriving in 2016 shows that the percentage of people residing in Canada is decreasing in current draws. So maybe they're running out and we can hope for more people with lower scores

 

[jairichi]

I see, so it's the total Economic Migration quota, where the actual result falls between high and low plans. It's interesting that the most prominent overrun is in the Canadian experience category. And the new data arriving in 2016 shows that the percentage of people residing in Canada is decreasing in current draws. So maybe they're running out and we can hope for more people with lower scores

Sorry, I do not do any detailed analysis. My point was it is not mandatory for them to meet the proposed quota.

 

[tfeddy2012]

Hi There!!

After the nail biting wait for 33rd Draw, the cut-off was a whooping 534 with only 799 invites.
And the wait starts again for the remaining candidates.
What do you all think would be the cut-off score, number of invites and date of next draw?

Does anyone speculate the cut-off to go down? As the same thing happened last year, May 2015 had only one draw with a cut-off over 755 points.


Thank You in Advance!!


Here we go again!

 

[rajibsam]

482, 1100 approx

 

[Nasa2n2]

The CRS system is full of mess and finally they are paying some attention to correct and balance this system which is dropping international students even with 2 years of Canadian experience in high skill jobs A, B, and 0. I hope these changes would come soon and grant 600 points for anyone who got university education in Canada.

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/canada-relax-citizenship-process-international-students
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/john-mccallum-citizenship-act-repeal-bill-1.3463471

 

[cp30985]

hi mates,

as per my analysis the sharp rice in CRS points would be because of the foreign students who might have gone on the student visa might have completed the Masters last year and they would be on the student work permit of year or two.. so they might have acquired say 1 year Canadian exp.. and they might have applied for the PR ...as you see the academic year of he Canada for the master degree ends in may ... this might be the possible reason for the rise in the last year and dis year CRS points. so guess the CRS points will come down gradually.

 

[StealthR]

I think the rise in points cutoff is because the number of invites were just 799 as opposed to the usual 1000. As long as the number of invites remain low the points cutoff will remain high.

 

[aunty acid]

All that goes up has to come down...keeping hopes alive

 

[kushagra452]

Is Canada wrapping up its Immigration program? It seems as if they now have a good number of people who have accepted the ITA and hence the doors are gradually closing.

:'(

 

[nighcrawler]

Is Canada wrapping up its Immigration program? It seems as if they now have a good number of people who have accepted the ITA and hence the doors are gradually closing.

:'(

it doesn't look so: what's the point in setting up high target immigration goals if they don't actually plan to achieve them? It seems logical that they are giving priority to those who already reside in Canada, but the statistics show that the number of non-residents is gradually increasing in the pool of the invited.

 

[Nasa2n2]

it doesn't look so: what's the point in setting up high target immigration goals if they don't actually plan to achieve them?

These goals have been setuped when the economy was great, don't forget Abarta oil crises creates domestic immigration especially for those who just lost their jobs. Recent report from statistics Canada shows a disappointing unemployment rate %7.1.
I believe that could potentially result in reviewing the entire immigration program ...