@naabrown19 --
Overall: failing to comply with the PR Residency Obligation meets the definition of inadmissibility. An inadmissible PR is, of course, at risk of proceedings to terminate their PR status whenever the PR:
-- arrives at a Port-of-Entry into Canada from abroad
-- applies for a PR card
-- applies for a PR Travel Document
-- applies to sponsor a family member for PR
Many particular and highly variable factors specific to the individual PR will influence whether inadmissibility proceedings are in fact initiated. So the risk of losing PR status for a breach of the RO is nearly impossible to reasonably quantify other than to recognize factors which can significantly increase the risk . . . like a big breach of the RO in conjunction with minimal establishment or ties in Canada tends to increase the risk.
Note: RO compliance is NOT connected to the date the PR card expires. For calculating RO compliance, the date the PR card expires is NOT relevant.
Longer Explanation:
I have recently returned to Canada after almost 3 years absence.
I have about 20 days of flexibility to achieve the 730 day requirement before my PR card expires.
I would really like to go and visit my girlfriend in the US for a bit, and together with trips home (the UK) next year, I don't think I will achieve the days in time, and may be a month or 2 off. Of which, I intend to remain in Canada at the end before applying for renewal.
My main question is, if I leave Canada to go to the US, probably via the land border, and I try to enter again at a date at a time I can no longer achieve the 730 days before my PR card expires (but my PR card is still valid) - am I at risk of the border officer starting the process to revoke my PR? and what are the chances of that actually happening?
I have completed 52 days to date and my PR card expires on 11th Sept 2024, and plan to be here the next months, but I am just planning ahead as I believe there will come a point where I will enter Canada at a time where I can no longer achieve the days before my PR card expires.
Again, the date your PR card expires is NOT relevant when calculating compliance with the PR Residency Obligation.
Regardless of the date a PR card expires, a PR is in breach of the RO if the PR is outside Canada more than 1095 days between the date they became a PR and the fifth year anniversary of that date. After the fifth year anniversary of the date of landing, to avoid being in breach a PR must be IN Canada (with exceptions) at least 730 days within the previous five years (previous 1825 days plus leap year days).
Whether the PR is carrying and presenting a valid PR card is nonetheless a factor in what questions might be asked by Port-of-Entry officials, and can influence whether there is a referral to Secondary for RO compliance questioning. That said, some PRs without a valid PR card will be waived through the primary inspection line (PIL) PoE screening at a land crossing, no referral to Secondary; on the other hand, any PR including those with a valid PR card can be referred to Secondary and questioned about RO compliance.
Risk of Inadmissibility Proceedings For PR in Breach:
You pose two questions regarding PoE screening (if you are in breach of the RO when you arrive at the PoE):
-- am I at risk of the border officer starting the process to revoke my PR?
-- what are the chances of that actually happening?
To be in breach is to be at risk for inadmissibility proceedings. Meaning, yes, if you are speeding even just a little over the speed limit there is a risk of being stopped and a citation being issued for a traffic offence . . . excuse me, I mean to say that if a PR meets the definition of inadmissibility, such as for a failure to comply with the RO, yes of course there is some risk that PoE officials will enforce the RO by initiating the 44(1) Report proceeding.
As for the chances of that actually happening . . . quantifying that risk outside big, broad ballpark ranges, is outright guessing. We know factors which increase the risk, like the more in breach the PR is, the bigger the risk (the more over the speed limit one is driving). The longer the most recent absence, the bigger the risk. But there are many other factors, some more readily identified and described (like, say, speeding in a school zone versus on a rural road), some not so easily.
You do not ask what the chances are that a Removal Order will be issued. Many seem to overlook that for a breach of the PR RO, the process to terminate PR status not only
starts at the PoE (by the preparation of a 44(1) Inadmissibility Report), but if it starts at the PoE it most often (with some exceptions) is completed at the PoE. If a 44(1) Report is prepared, it is (usually) immediately reviewed by another officer and the decision is made whether to terminate the PR's status (and if so, a Removal Order is issued, subject to a right of appeal).
When a PR who is not in compliance with the RO arrives at a PoE, the risks are incremental:
-- risk PIL (Primary Inspection Line) officer makes a referral to Secondary for immigration, and if that happens
-- risk examining officer in Secondary questions the PR regarding RO compliance, and if that happens
-- risk that officer determines there is a breach and proceeds to prepare a 44(1) Report, and if that happens
-- risk that the officer reviewing the 44(1) Report (that officer technically considered the Minister's Delegate), after considering H&C factors, issues a Removal Order
If the last of these happens, the PR will be allowed to proceed into Canada and has a right of appeal, despite the formal and official decision to terminate the PR's status for a breach of the RO.
We know many of the factors which influence what happens, the same factors influencing the outcome at each of these steps in the process.*** However, the impact of this or that factor can vary at different steps. If the PR card has expired, that increases the risk of a referral to Secondary, but once in Secondary, it will have no influence in determining whether the PR is in breach of the RO. Length of last absence, for example, can have a big influence in whether the PIL officer makes the referral to Secondary, and some influence in the degree of questioning as to RO compliance by the officer in Secondary, but will have minimal influence beyond that in whether an inadmissibility report is prepared or a Removal Order is issued. Gets complicated, but common sense illuminates most of the factors and their influence in general terms (like how much over the speed limit the driver is going, as in how big the breach is).
Observation about how you have framed the question:
. . . if I leave Canada to go to the US, probably via the land border, and I try to enter again at a date at a time I can no longer achieve the 730 days before my PR card expires (but my PR card is still valid) . . .
To be clear:
-- if you are returning to Canada BEFORE the fifth year anniversary of the date you landed and became a PR, you are in compliance so long as you have NOT yet been outside Canada more than 1095 days since landing (since regardless of the number of days in Canada so far, you would still be able to meet the 730 day minimum by the fifth year anniversary). If upon arrival at the PoE you have been absent from Canada a total of more than 1095 days (since landing date), you are in breach, meet the definition of inadmissible, and thus are at risk of proceedings to enforce the RO.
-- if you are returning to Canada AFTER the fifth year anniversary, you are in RO compliance if you have been IN Canada at least 730 days within the previous five years, as of that day. If upon arrival at the PoE you have not been IN Canada at least 730 days within the previous five years, as of that day, you are in breach, meet the definition of inadmissible, and thus are at risk of proceedings to enforce the RO.
Thus, for example, if you are returning to Canada from the U.S. on September 3, 2024, and the number of days you have been IN Canada between September 3, 2019 and September 3, 2024 is less than 730 days, you meet the definition of inadmissible and there is some risk of encountering RO enforcement action at the PoE. BUT again, it is near impossible to quantify what the chances are that PoE officials will even question you much let alone go through the full process for terminating PR status. That said, we can probably safely say the odds range from good to very good there will not be a problem if you are just returning from a ten day trip to the U.S. and you are, say, less than 30 days short of the RO, and you are driving your own car licensed in Canada. But that is without any guarantee.
*** Note: The steps outlined are the typical and usual steps, but in practice they can vary some. At a small border crossing, for example, the PIL officer can also be the officer who conducts Secondary screening. Other times a second officer to review the inadmissibility report is not available (noting the reviewing officer cannot be an officer who has already participated in examining the PR), and that step can be put off until later, typically in a telephone conference. Among other variations.
