Dave01 said:
. . . . but why would you think it cant come into force after the elections?
Technically I suppose it could. However, there is no credible hint, let alone a reliable source of information, that the process for implementing the amendments will be delayed into August, let alone September, let alone October. All indications (including, for example, the recent proposals for regulatory changes to facilitate implementation of the revisions, as well as the other housekeeping measures like the amendment to the
SCCA in recently adopted legislation) are that the government is on track to implement the revisions as planned, which is to say
approximately a year from mid-June 2014.
Reminder: once Parliament is dissolved for an election,
all Parliamentary business is closed, terminated, dead. Even a Bill which has made it through a third reading but has not received Royal Assent, for example,
dies when an election takes place and would have to start over from scratch after the next Parliament is seated and government formed (there are some rare exceptions).
I do not know what technically happens to legislation which has received Royal Assent but which has not yet come into force when an election takes place. My sense is that since there will be no Governor in Council once Parliament is dissolved for an election, it would be
necessary for the Governor in Council to fix the date for the
SCCA to take effect
before the election. Technically I suppose that "date" could be fixed for some time in the future, after the election, or could even be conditional on future events such as a future order by a subsequent Governor in Council. However, this would probably be highly unusual and limited to legislation which was adopted with certain conditional elements expected and incorporated into it.
But as a practical matter, this is an all-but-done deal. The required comment time for the necessary regulatory changes has passed, some other statutory housekeeping amendments were included in another recently adopted Bill given Royal Assent (mentioned in a post a number of pages back), and generally it looks things are lining up for the government to go ahead and put the revisions into effect.
In other words, it is likely the curtain will be falling soon, most likely by the 1st of July if not sooner, but virtually a certainty by the first of September at the latest.
2016 as the effective date for new provisions:
The idea that amendments in the
SCCA might not take effect until 2016 probably derives from anticipating when applications will actually be processed according to the new provisions, rather than the
coming-into-force date. Remember, as of the
coming-into-force date, the number of new applications being submitted is likely to drop to a trickle, a very small percentage of the usual number submitted for a given month. And those few will be subject to the now standard preliminary screening steps done in Sydney, including the completeness check, basic eligibility check (which will be more definitive going forward given the elimination of the distinction between basic residency eligibility and residency qualification), and the triage criteria screening for
reasons-to-question-residency, and so it will be several months, probably well into 2016, before any applications are actually processed pursuant to the revised provisions.
June 19 to July 2
To be clear, this is probably consistent with the guess that most
informed observers are making. It is consistent with my
guess, my expectations; that is, even though I slightly lean toward June 1st as my specific
guess, I recognize the high odds that the date is likely to be before July 2 at the latest, probably not sooner than June 1st, so the range June 19 to July 2 is about as good a guess as can be made.
That is, it is safe to say that there is indeed a high probability that the
coming-into-force date will indeed be a date between June 19 and July 2.
This observation is based on very little weight given to statements by call centre representatives. I have no more idea what the call centre representatives are saying about this beyond the anecdotal reports I see, but as others have noted, there is
no official date as yet, it is clear the Governor in Council has
not yet made an order fixing the date, there is no formal announcements about the prospective date beyond last June's "approximately a year" statements by CIC, and the role of CIC call centre representatives is to provide
formal, definitive information, and as things currently stand there is no formal or definitive information as to what the
coming-into-force date will actually be.
If the CIC call centre representatives are lately beginning to give the same, or a very similar response, to questions about the effective date, it appears nonetheless it is not a definitive date, still a
range, and still couched in terms of an estimation. Again, I do not know the precise language call centre representatives are using in responding to the questions about the effective date, but if all call centre representatives were responding exactly the same that would defy all known previous dealings with call centre representatives, who are well known for at least using variable language, if not giving outright different answers, to even relatively straight-forward questions.
Alternative sources to ask:
Look at some of the older media stories about the
SCCA, such as at the Star or the National Post, look for the name of the reporters in the byline, and send an inquiry to that reporter, something like:
I am a PR who will be eligible for Canadian citizenship soon but not if the revised provisions for residency take effect before I can apply. I have been trying to find out when the new provisions will come into force. Have you or your [newspaper/TV station] reported yet on what that date will be? If not, is this something you will investigate and report about?
Probably worth adding another very brief paragraph stating why this information is important to you, noting for example that if the new requirements take effect before you can apply you will have to wait [a year or whatever period is applicable for you] more before you are eligible, but in the meantime if you knew you will have to wait anyway, you would like to spend two weeks visiting [parents/the Caribbean/Paris/whatever] abroad, but would not take the trip if it means you will be eligible for citizenship this year.
Sooner or later, some journalist might very well dig up some reliable source for a more definite date even though the Governor in Council has not yet made the order fixing the date.
Any notice more in advance of what the government will formally give should be of help to some, perhaps thousands.
Regarding the Parliamentary Business web site and notice of the order fixing the coming-into-force date:
I just started following this source watching for
the coming-into-force date, so as I previously noted I am unsure about how up-to-date that source is maintained. That said, as I also previously noted, that site generally maintains the current status of all Bills as timely as any, and this appears to include adopted Bills subject to
coming-into-force provisions dependent on an order by the Governor in Council, so I am expecting this site to be among the first to formally post the
coming-into-force date.
Unfortunately, I notice that as of today it still indicates the information is current as of April 13, 2015, so it is obviously
not updated on a daily basis. I wonder if it is weekly updated? bi-weekly?