. . . effective date . . . only CIC knows and they have not announced it yet.
Indeed, no announcement yet.
Minor clarification: CIC personnel probably do
NOT know either.
It is uncertain whether even CIC Minister Chris Alexander knows. Probably, I'd guess. But this is a decision made by the
Governor in Council, which means it is really made by the Prime Minister in consultation with the PMO and possibly a few close advisers to the PM in his cabinet. Whether or not Minister Alexander is among that small group of close advisers, relative to this particular decision, is speculative.
This has been perhaps the most secretive government Canada has ever had. Harper has run a remarkably disciplined ship on this score (which to my view is not a positive).
MUFC said:
Honestly I'm also very surprised that we are approaching March,2015 and the date is still not officially announced. The expected time is so close, but nothing official.
In contrast, I will be very surprised if there is any official announcement much more than a calendar month in advance of the effective date. I am expecting credible rumours in the near future (will be difficult, though, to identify which ones are credible, at least initially).
At some point, CIC personnel will at least be involved in setting up final implementation steps, and while they probably will still not be officially informed as to the effective date many of them should be able to discern roughly when it is coming . . . and then some credible rumours should make their way into the public domain.
Those individuals working on modifying forms (like the application itself), writing software (including new residency calculation software, as well as internal processing software including changes to GCMS), and drafting policies and practices for implementing the changes, probably work entirely separately from any CIC personnel who work on processing applications. They are probably relatively few in number, working in relatively small teams. They probably do not know the date either, but of course they undoubtedly have some deadlines which are related to the planned date (per the Prime Minister's plan, not CIC's). These individuals probably keep what they know close to the vest and are not likely to be broadcasting anticipated dates.
Call centre personnel will probably be among the last of CIC personnel to know. Some participants here may know before the call centre personnel do.
My speculation: there will be some notice, probably not a lot.
This government does not give any more notice than it is compelled to give, either by law or due to pressing practicalities.
Examples: there was no notice before the fee increase in February 2014. There was no notice of Governor in Council's order prior to the provisions in Bill C-24 which came into force on August 1, 2014 (implementing the so-called
one-step decision-making process). There was no notice before the implementation of the drastic changes to policies governing the issuance of RQ in April 2012 (which had a disastrous impact and which has left scores of applicants still in limbo today; much of that disaster was due to the minimal consultation with actual CIC personnel before dumping the change on them).
That there was notice prior to the more recent increase in fees signalled, to me, that the previous increase
without notice probably created more problems than it was worth (I suspect hundreds if not more than a thousand applications had to be returned for insufficient payment of fees). Thus, the obvious pressing practicality of giving some notice despite this government's general tendency to give little or no notice except as required by law. This should loom very large in considering the need to give notice of when the revised residency requirements will come into force. Without at least a week or so notice, CIC would end up with many thousands of applications requiring an assessment of residency even though it is certain the applications will fail . . . a huge workload and much expense which can be largely avoided by some advance notice.
Obviously, many are anxiously watching for news of when the changes will become effective.
It is a bit like watching a series on cable TV, lots of drama, little or no progress toward a resolution. Except thousands of real people's lives will be affected. No life or death consequences hanging in the balance, but for many immigrants taking those last steps to becoming fully Canadian, becoming a citizen, is a very big deal. And for some, a year or more delay can impose substantial inconvenience, including significantly diminished career opportunities with a real impact on their bank accounts. So it matters.
