As for when the remaining provisions of Bill C-24 take effect (many are already in force), including when the 4/6 year presence requirement as well as the "intent to continue residing in Canada" requirement to qualify for naturalized citizenship will apply, to say "definitely next year" is undoubtedly a safe bet. Beyond that, the only official source of information as to when was the public announcement at the time Bill C-24 was given Royal Assent and became law (for clarity: all of Bill C-24 is adopted law, including the 4/6 year presence requirement as well as the "intent to continue residing in Canada" requirement to qualify for naturalized citizenship, even though not all provisions have yet "come into force"), back in mid-June, was that the new residency requirements (actually physical presence requirements) would take effect in about a year. . . . which would be mid-June 2015.
Reminder: a large portion of the provisions in Bill C-24 are already "in force," which means many of its provisions are being currently applied.
Thus, there is no doubt that those provisions (including the presence and intent provisions) for which the Governor in Council has yet to designate the date they come into force will, indeed, come into force. The only question is when.
I agree that there are similarities here with the rollout of new software or new products (especially electronics or products otherwise dependent on developing technology), since after all a big part of what needs to be done in order to implement the new residency requirements is the rewriting of software, ranging from the software utilized for accessing and using GCMS, to that underlying the residency calculator, but of course also including rewriting guidelines and manuals for operating policy and practices, creating new application forms, new Residency Questionnaire forms, new checklists for level one screeners and interviewers, and more.
However, I am skeptical of reports that CIC representatives even know, let alone are saying when the rollout is likely to happen. September or so in 2015 could be when it will happen. But I would not be much surprised if it happens sooner, as early as May, or at least by July 1st.
Politics is likely to be a dominant force influencing the actual date. This government keeps a tight wrap on information about these sorts of things, and the decision itself will be made by a very small circle of inner advisers to PM Harper. Even Minister Alexander may not have much input. That is how this government operates.
And, anyone who followed the citizenship application process through the 2012 debacle, when CIC plunged into a pre-test RQ process prematurely and with utterly inadequate preparation, is well aware that this government in particular is all-too-willing to implement new practices first and figure out how it needs to be done later.
I suspect that Harper's inner circle have a very definite date in mind, and if there are problems in getting all the various elements into place at CIC in time, that is not likely to delay things, not by much, but rather CIC will be compelled to implement and adapt on the go if necessary. I further suspect that to the extent there is still some uncertainty as to what that date will be, that uncertainty is related to political maneuvering in advance of the coming Federal election.
I discuss this in more depth in the citizenship forum at immigration.ca, including some observations about the likely influence internal polling by Conservatives will have, relative to political maneuvering in anticipation of the next Federal election, which Harper could call for at any time now (recognizing though that at the latest the election must be held by next October).
