Donald Trump create longer wait times?

[jeff198901]

Might seem like a silly question but, do you think that Donald Trump becoming president will create longer wait times for PR?

 

[jeff198901]

And, what is average wait times for Americans now?

 

[naveedali]

Spousal application department is different than other PR departments so i would say NO.

 

[danawhitaker]

Might seem like a silly question but, do you think that Donald Trump becoming president will create longer wait times for PR?

At most I can see it being a catalyst for some couples who were considering getting married or moving to Canada to look at it more seriously. I think the actual amount of increased applications from that would be negligible at best, and wouldn't slow things down in a tremendous way.

It's not impossible that there could be heightened scrutiny of the genuineness of American/Canadian relationships for applications that come in after that point, but I don't know that that seems particularly likely either.

 

[profiler]

Might seem like a silly question but, do you think that Donald Trump becoming president will create longer wait times for PR?

There has been a big upswing in spouses living in the US wanting to live in Canada. I don't have stats, but in 3-6mos we should see them. The CIC web site was taken down under load during the election. The numbers were incredible. 12x the typical load, and all of the additional traffic were american IP's.

That said, the government and IRCC had high level meetings after the election to prepare for a huge wave of undocumented central and south americans.

 

[SaskinSeoul]

No because many applications will be out right denied. People who try this are usually couples who moved to the us for jobs and bought permanent assets. You have to prove your intentions of living in Canada numerous applications won't make it past this stage.

 

[profiler]

The original question was about processing times.

An application exists when a an IMM 1344 (Sponsorship Undertaking) and an IMM 0008 (Generic Application to Canada) is made (the requirements for documents required to start an application is in IP-2: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/manuals/ip/ip02-eng.pdf 5.12 & 5.13 on Pg 15).

That said, those applications still take time for people at the CPC's to look at the case, and make requests for documents. Therefore, absolutely that will take away processing time from people who have legitimate cases in. There will be drop-outs at differing levels, so it would be hard to give any kind of guess as to how much and at what stage applicants can notice a change in processing times.

To add to that, there will likely be an influx of undocumented persons fleeing as well. Depending on what applications they make (refugee, TRV, etc), can also slow up applications.

 

[SaskinSeoul]

I'd be more worried about the Mexico visa lift which could lead to a huge increase in refugee cases and raise processing times. Every US election everyone is moving to Canada but it never happens. When George Bush won the same thing happened as when Donald Trump won American processing times propably won't change by much for American couples. You have to pay almost $600 upfront to process the visa not including health checks and other fees. This deters a lot of people.

 

[just a square]

Every US election everyone is moving to Canada but it never happens. When George Bush won the same thing happened as when Donald Trump won American processing times propably won't change by much for American couples.

Do you have a source to support this?

I can't find an article I read a few days ago with more data, but here's a close one:
http://time.com/4245100/move-to-canada-americans-trump-bush/
You can see that election results have an impact on immigration rates. Maybe not a huge one, but my guess is there will be more people upset by Trump than there were upset by Bush.

According to this article, about a quarter of US citizens immigrating come under family sponsorship program. So I'd say it might slow down the application process just a little bit for everyone (because the total number of filed applications might be larger) and slow down a little bit more for American applicants (because they'll all end up in Ottawa and it won't affect other visa offices).

Just my 2 ¢

 

[flx2015]

out of all the americans that have shown interest in relocating to canada after the election, i'm thinking only a small percentage of those people are going to actually be eligible for PR. out of that small percentage of eligible people, how many do you think will actually be willing to leave behind their jobs, family and friends for a president who may not even last a full term?

things will settle down and people will get used to having trump as the 45th president of murica.

 

[profiler]

out of all the americans that have shown interest in relocating to canada after the election, i'm thinking only a small percentage of those people are going to actually be eligible for PR. out of that small percentage of eligible people, how many do you think will actually be willing to leave behind their jobs, family and friends for a president who may not even last a full term?

things will settle down and people will get used to having trump as the 45th president of murica.

Eligibility checks take time.

 

[flx2015]

Eligibility checks take time.

i worded that incorrectly, sorry. i'm talking about the percentage of people who are eligible to apply.

 

[profiler]

i worded that incorrectly, sorry. i'm talking about the percentage of people who are eligible to apply.

No apology necessary. I am more wondering how many would submit the minimum to start an application those will have the biggest effect I think...

 

[flagpoleready]

After the election, what I did notice was an immense delay in trying to get through the call centre. I think it is definitely a result of the election. Not sure about the application timelines.

 

[danawhitaker]

No apology necessary. I am more wondering how many would submit the minimum to start an application those will have the biggest effect I think...

I don't think that many, speaking as an American who knows a lot of people who were threatening to do so. And most of them would not have been doing so under family sponsorship, but instead trying to get in through EE. I've never paid attention to where those are processed.

I don't doubt there'll be some increase in spousal/common law sponsorships, but I suspect it wouldn't be any more of the type of bump that comes shortly after wedding season, and it will probably be people who were already headed down that path anyway eventually (sort of like the people who proposed marriage on 9/11, etc.) Once you start seriously researching what's necessary to do it, you'll figure out pretty quickly whether you're eligible or not, and the fact that you can't just send in an application for free will cut down on people actually trying. And even with that, I doubt the increase will come all at once, as many relationships would be in different stages of readiness (needing to get married, needing to live together to establish common law, etc.) It would likely be spread out over a period of time and not be some onslaught on Inauguration Day.

A lot of Americans were hitting the site just for the sake of curiosity on election night, with no intention of actually moving. While it was amusing they crashed the site, I truly don't think it's indicative of some massive onslaught of people attempting to leave. We'll see down the road. That's my take on it as an American. The media here has already moved on to talking about who's going to run in 2020.