The did indeed update the number to about 16k on December 16. However, going by CIC, is would be safe to assume that the number only reflected the apps received by mid of October. I am an applicant and have worked in the immigration industry myself as well. The return letter is dated 4th March and since it was returned back to the Canada address, the turn around time was lesser. For overseas applicants, obviously it would take more time for the package to reach.
If file is returned due to NOC being capped, it mentions the NOC code and sub cap reached. This one categorically mentioned that 25k overall cap was reached. That the app returned was NOC 1123 which was already capped is a different story.
How else do you make of the fact that there have been no chargings for 29-31 dec applicants none soever. Honestly, I would be happy to see everyone being charged and granted PER, but just quoting facts. Didn't mean to rain on anyone's parade, but that's the naked truth. Might as well focus on EE now.