CRS prediction visualization playground

[deadbird]

Hi folks. I created a tool for visualizing future CRS draws ;D ;D

Check it out - http://therealdeadbird.github.io/canadaita/

The settings are completely customizable, so feel free to play around with it!

 

[axlh17]

What does this do exactly?

 

[Sluffy]

Beautifully done but not much help as we don't know the exact figures)
And I disagree with the part of average CRS score - that doesn't make any sense. Score over 400 matters at the moment and slots divided in 'tens' (400-410, 411-420, уес

 

[LokiJr01]

That sure is a pretty visual worth showing during those CIC seminars hehe

 

[deadbird]

What does this do exactly?

It simulates an ITA draw. You can set the number of ITAs issued in the next draw by changing the sliders and observe what the ITA CRS cutoff is. I've initialized the settings to something reasonable, but it probably makes more sense to set them in a more principled way ( next weekend project 8) )

 

[deadbird]

Beautifully done but not much help as we don't know the exact figures)
And I disagree with the part of average CRS score - that doesn't make any sense. Score over 400 matters at the moment and slots divided in 'tens' (400-410, 411-420, уес

I will look into setting numbers in a more principled way. Basically, need my hands on some historical data. I believe @andy18 the tracker person has a wealth of information, maybe he/she will share the data in a reasonable format.

 

[deadbird]

We finally have some data now. See page 9 of this official immigration document - https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf

and compare with CRS simulator - http://therealdeadbird.github.io/canadaita/

The distribution is markedly gaussian with a mean of 400 CRS points. Now simulate, the above for a few more rounds and you'll get a pretty good idea about our current distribution of applicants.

 

[axlh17]

I played around with the new default values. It seems if 750 ITAs continue, cutoff will stay around 505+-10. For 1400+ ITAs, cutoff will drop to ~450, then to 430 and slowly decrease by 5 every draw. But of course if the score continue to stay low like that it will attract more applications.
During semester ending seasons there will be more people with newly earned degrees so score should be higher for a short period of time.

 

[deadbird]

I played around with the new default values. It seems if 750 ITAs continue, cutoff will stay around 505+-10. For 1400+ ITAs, cutoff will drop to ~450, then to 430 and slowly decrease by 5 every draw. But of course if the score continue to stay low like that it will attract more applications.
During semester ending seasons there will be more people with newly earned degrees so score should be higher for a short period of time.

Yes, that was close to my analysis as well. Good luck with your application!

 

[andy108]

There is a report based on Actual DATA here: https://myimmitracker.com/en/trackers/express-entry-tracker-crs/analytics

However, it depends on people actually adding their case. It has been SPOT on for the past 8 rounds, if you be kind enough to add your case - it will be even more accurate.

 

[volodyalysak]

There is a report based on Actual DATA here: https://myimmitracker.com/en/trackers/express-entry-tracker-crs/analytics

However, it depends on people actually adding their case. It has been SPOT on for the past 8 rounds, if you be kind enough to add your case - it will be even more accurate.

Great tracker , just added myself, hope that helps

 

[LokiJr01]

A tracker would be nice but considering the sheer number of applicants under the Express Entry system, the number of forumers is but a fraction of the total applicant pool so I'm not sure how else to chart the draws anymore. Until things stabilise, I'm afraid this will be similar to lottery hehe

 

[andy108]

A tracker would be nice but considering the sheer number of applicants under the Express Entry system, the number of forumers is but a fraction of the total applicant pool so I'm not sure how else to chart the draws anymore. Until things stabilise, I'm afraid this will be similar to lottery hehe

You see, you dont need to knnow the full data sample to predict the result.

For example opinion polls usually collect opinion of 2000-4000 people (our of 65 million people, like in the UK) and the statistical error is roughly 2-3%.

In our case we know that Express Entry Database has about 70k profiles, so even a sample we have now on http://myimmitracker.com is sufficient enough to make good predictions and analysis. However the larger the sample the better are the results.

 

[bestofluck]

I just changed the initial applications number to 6350 because it is actual AOR given till today. The draw size came to 455 !!!!!

I better catch a pokemon !!!

 

[deadbird]

You see, you dont need to knnow the full data sample to predict the result.

For example opinion polls usually collect opinion of 2000-4000 people (our of 65 million people, like in the UK) and the statistical error is roughly 2-3%.

In our case we know that Express Entry Database has about 70k profiles, so even a sample we have now on http://myimmitracker.com is sufficient enough to make good predictions and analysis. However the larger the sample the better are the results.

@andy108 Can you share a spreadsheet of your immitracker data? It would be useful for me to calibrate my analysis tool and possibly do some predictive modeling as well. Ofcourse, I would share the results with everyone.