Wish your theory is what they are following in real....those dates are just to show off...though some profiles are getting approved but not majority...but the truth most of us can agree is they are focusing on may applicants though random dates are getting approval lately...
I like your theory however, many May applicants are still left in limbo of background check still pending. I cannot imagine how the head of processing in IRCC or the minister can live with themselves knowing that people are made to sweat out additional money for extension of permits while they’re already approving those that applied 3 months back.
In my opinion this is not normal. Eligibility is the first stage to pass. I passed mine back in summer. Don't you mix up eligibility and criminality? The most likely you may stuck on criminality like myself.
yeah, only a small portion of "out of 300 days" are getting approvals, that's frustrating of source. I bet there is a 295 days deadline. Which is literally 80% of a calendar year, and a suspiciously lot of 295-days logged on myimmitracker, and only ONE 297, then everything less 295 and more than 300.
Eligibility is not the first stage to pass. Often Criminality starts right after Medicals pass. A lot of applicants find their stages pass in this order:
Thank you, good to know! But I think you missed one important stage "Do nothing". Last year they were very active doing nothing on many applications and for long time.
I think there is a lot of truth in this, I think a lot of our "Criminality" and "Security" checks have already come back from the whatever agency does them. I think we are waiting for an agent to basically press a button to confirm that the checks have come back and they approve it after a once over!
Tell me you were good at stats in uni without telling me XDwell, maybe I was too fast to decide about 300, but I was close:
230days aor-ppr is the most frequent hit for the last 3 months, according to data from myimmitracker. Not the best dataset, too few points, but it shows a great correlation! 200-239 days is the largest bucket, regardless of the month of ppr. And obviously, those are May,Jun,Jul guys.
tables are here: https://imgur.com/a/5JKJK5k
so that means - Feb 2020, Mar 2020, April 2020 are left behind. We've already crossed 230+days watermark.
They definitely started striving to meet some KPIs from this January.
1 Jan 2021 - 245 days = 1 may 2021. Hello spring applicants, pay taxes, and wait patient (angry)
PS:
here is a Oct, Nov, Dec, same frequency bucket analysis: it was the sweet time _some_ of spring guys got their approvals.
and the sweetest one let's get more points, it has to be Gaussian due to randomness: combined 3 month end of 2020 vs 3 month start of 2021, ppr received grouped by waiting days, viola!
you see how ~230 is out of Gaussian? that's a manual intervention into a random process.
or even more: from Oct2020 to Mar2021
I added approx red dots. It suspiciously looks like someone from top bosses just artificially select cases within specific date ranges and steal our approvals (e.g. staff capacity) to keep people approved in <7-8month and make them happy, following by cheerfull social media posts. We are left aside.
Edit: well, maybe there could be not a true gaussian, but assimetrical one with a higher right part.
anyway, I've checked Jan and Feb from 2020 - the sharp extremum is on 150 days, which means they are trying to meet 180days deadline. But in the current situation there is a huge unprocessed backlog, and no one cares to clean it before getting into new cases. Blame.
/micdrop/
