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COPR this week?

stanley81

Star Member
Aug 27, 2020
72
66
LOL, my conspiracy theory is being confirmed every week. Looks like they really are focusing on "less than 300 days in progress" applications every single week, like today:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-status.html
""We’re currently finalizing most applications we received between: May 24 and 30, 2020""
last week it was like May 17-23
a week earlier: May 10-16

Pick up the date calculator: March 17 2021 - 300 days = Thursday‎, ‎May‎ ‎21‎, ‎2020 ahahaha
Moreover it looks like the new 300days rule came into effect about the date they announced they 'prioritize CEC inlands'.
Check the immitracker. I know that's a rough and weak representation, according to the disclosured ircc statistics, maybe about 10% randomized, which is not bad, but anyway, the ratio >300 / <300 days aor-ppr dramatically changed from the middle of february.

thumbs up if you like that speculations, lol
next week it will be 1 year birthday of my application, I won't celebrate, the worst anniversary.
 

RAMAAA91

Hero Member
Mar 8, 2020
568
210
LOL, my conspiracy theory is being confirmed every week. Looks like they really are focusing on "less than 300 days in progress" applications every single week, like today:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-status.html
""We’re currently finalizing most applications we received between: May 24 and 30, 2020""
last week it was like May 17-23
a week earlier: May 10-16

Pick up the date calculator: March 17 2021 - 300 days = Thursday‎, ‎May‎ ‎21‎, ‎2020 ahahaha
Moreover it looks like the new 300days rule came into effect about the date they announced they 'prioritize CEC inlands'.
Check the immitracker. I know that's a rough and weak representation, according to the disclosured ircc statistics, maybe about 10% randomized, which is not bad, but anyway, the ratio >300 / <300 days aor-ppr dramatically changed from the middle of february.

thumbs up if you like that speculations, lol
next week it will be 1 year birthday of my application, I won't celebrate, the worst anniversary.
Wish your theory is what they are following in real....those dates are just to show off...though some profiles are getting approved but not majority...but the truth most of us can agree is they are focusing on may applicants though random dates are getting approval lately...
 
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ForUs2020

Hero Member
Jun 22, 2020
712
306
Vancouver
Visa Office......
Ottawa
AOR Received.
May 16 2020
LOL, my conspiracy theory is being confirmed every week. Looks like they really are focusing on "less than 300 days in progress" applications every single week, like today:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-status.html
""We’re currently finalizing most applications we received between: May 24 and 30, 2020""
last week it was like May 17-23
a week earlier: May 10-16

Pick up the date calculator: March 17 2021 - 300 days = Thursday‎, ‎May‎ ‎21‎, ‎2020 ahahaha
Moreover it looks like the new 300days rule came into effect about the date they announced they 'prioritize CEC inlands'.
Check the immitracker. I know that's a rough and weak representation, according to the disclosured ircc statistics, maybe about 10% randomized, which is not bad, but anyway, the ratio >300 / <300 days aor-ppr dramatically changed from the middle of february.

thumbs up if you like that speculations, lol
next week it will be 1 year birthday of my application, I won't celebrate, the worst anniversary.
I like your theory however, many May applicants are still left in limbo of background check still pending. I cannot imagine how the head of processing in IRCC or the minister can live with themselves knowing that people are made to sweat out additional money for extension of permits while they’re already approving those that applied 3 months back.
 

Ilya127

Star Member
Nov 24, 2020
103
77
Toronto
AOR- FEB 12 2020, BIOMETRICS MAR 12 2020; NO UPDATES, Called today was told eligibility still pending. Any one like me ?
In my opinion this is not normal. Eligibility is the first stage to pass. I passed mine back in summer. Don't you mix up eligibility and criminality? The most likely you may stuck on criminality like myself.
 
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stanley81

Star Member
Aug 27, 2020
72
66
Wish your theory is what they are following in real....those dates are just to show off...though some profiles are getting approved but not majority...but the truth most of us can agree is they are focusing on may applicants though random dates are getting approval lately...
yeah, only a small portion of "out of 300 days" are getting approvals, that's frustrating of source. I bet there is a 295 days deadline. Which is literally 80% of a calendar year, and a suspiciously lot of 295-days logged on myimmitracker, and only ONE 297, then everything less 295 and more than 300.

>"many May applicants are still left in limbo of background check still pending. "
Trust me, "pending" you hear over phone is nothing, they most probably already have green lights and require only a click from a human.

Of course not 100% cases are getting approved according to the 300days rule, there might be some other restrictions, like no more than 80% to be processed. They like the number 80
 
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EscoBlades

Champion Member
Jul 22, 2020
2,160
1,768
Toronto
Category........
CEC
In my opinion this is not normal. Eligibility is the first stage to pass. I passed mine back in summer. Don't you mix up eligibility and criminality? The most likely you may stuck on criminality like myself.
Eligibility is not the first stage to pass. Often Criminality starts right after Medicals pass. A lot of applicants find their stages pass in this order:

Medicals
Criminality
Info Sharing
Eligibility
Security
 

Ilya127

Star Member
Nov 24, 2020
103
77
Toronto
Eligibility is not the first stage to pass. Often Criminality starts right after Medicals pass. A lot of applicants find their stages pass in this order:

Medicals
Criminality
Info Sharing
Eligibility
Security
Thank you, good to know! But I think you missed one important stage "Do nothing". Last year they were very active doing nothing on many applications and for long time.
 

birwin91

Star Member
Jan 20, 2020
123
104
yeah, only a small portion of "out of 300 days" are getting approvals, that's frustrating of source. I bet there is a 295 days deadline. Which is literally 80% of a calendar year, and a suspiciously lot of 295-days logged on myimmitracker, and only ONE 297, then everything less 295 and more than 300.

>"many May applicants are still left in limbo of background check still pending. "
Trust me, "pending" you hear over phone is nothing, they most probably already have green lights and require only a click from a human.

Of course not 100% cases are getting approved according to the 300days rule, there might be some other restrictions, like no more than 80% to be processed. They like the number 80
I think there is a lot of truth in this, I think a lot of our "Criminality" and "Security" checks have already come back from the whatever agency does them. I think we are waiting for an agent to basically press a button to confirm that the checks have come back and they approve it after a once over!
 
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horizonj

Hero Member
Jun 9, 2017
349
183
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
Online
NOC Code......
1311
AOR Received.
11-06-2020
God, it is getting so hard coming onto this forum everyday and seeing people who applied months and months after you getting through, and yet I'm still waiting. I applied in April 2020, and Security still hasn't started and Criminality is still in Progress. Mentally it's getting so tough....
Agree on that. It's just so depressing to see.
 

stanley81

Star Member
Aug 27, 2020
72
66
well, maybe I was too fast to decide about 300, but I was close:
230days aor-ppr is the most frequent hit for the last 3 months, according to data from myimmitracker. Not the best dataset, too few points, but it shows a great correlation! 200-239 days is the largest bucket, regardless of the month of ppr. And obviously, those are May,Jun,Jul guys.
tables are here: https://imgur.com/a/5JKJK5k


so that means - Feb 2020, Mar 2020, April 2020 are left behind. We've already crossed 230+days watermark.
They definitely started striving to meet some KPIs from this January.

1 Jan 2021 - 245 days = 1 may 2021. Hello spring applicants, pay taxes, and wait patient (angry)

PS:
here is a Oct, Nov, Dec, same frequency bucket analysis: it was the sweet time _some_ of spring guys got their approvals.


and the sweetest one let's get more points, it has to be Gaussian due to randomness: combined 3 month end of 2020 vs 3 month start of 2021, ppr received grouped by waiting days, viola!


you see how ~230 is out of Gaussian? that's a manual intervention into a random process.

or even more: from Oct2020 to Mar2021

I added approx red dots. It suspiciously looks like someone from top bosses just artificially select cases within specific date ranges and steal our approvals (e.g. staff capacity) to keep people approved in <7-8month and make them happy, following by cheerfull social media posts. We are left aside.


Edit: well, maybe there could be not a true gaussian, but assimetrical one with a higher right part.
anyway, I've checked Jan and Feb from 2020 - the sharp extremum is on 150 days, which means they are trying to meet 180days deadline. But in the current situation there is a huge unprocessed backlog, and no one cares to clean it before getting into new cases. Blame.
/micdrop/
 

GrettaFox

Star Member
Sep 15, 2020
87
56
Mississauga
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
Ottawa
NOC Code......
6313
App. Filed.......
07-05-2020
AOR Received.
22-05-2020
Med's Done....
11-07-2020
LANDED..........
20-03-2021
well, maybe I was too fast to decide about 300, but I was close:
230days aor-ppr is the most frequent hit for the last 3 months, according to data from myimmitracker. Not the best dataset, too few points, but it shows a great correlation! 200-239 days is the largest bucket, regardless of the month of ppr. And obviously, those are May,Jun,Jul guys.
tables are here: https://imgur.com/a/5JKJK5k


so that means - Feb 2020, Mar 2020, April 2020 are left behind. We've already crossed 230+days watermark.
They definitely started striving to meet some KPIs from this January.

1 Jan 2021 - 245 days = 1 may 2021. Hello spring applicants, pay taxes, and wait patient (angry)

PS:
here is a Oct, Nov, Dec, same frequency bucket analysis: it was the sweet time _some_ of spring guys got their approvals.


and the sweetest one let's get more points, it has to be Gaussian due to randomness: combined 3 month end of 2020 vs 3 month start of 2021, ppr received grouped by waiting days, viola!


you see how ~230 is out of Gaussian? that's a manual intervention into a random process.

or even more: from Oct2020 to Mar2021

I added approx red dots. It suspiciously looks like someone from top bosses just artificially select cases within specific date ranges and steal our approvals (e.g. staff capacity) to keep people approved in <7-8month and make them happy, following by cheerfull social media posts. We are left aside.


Edit: well, maybe there could be not a true gaussian, but assimetrical one with a higher right part.
anyway, I've checked Jan and Feb from 2020 - the sharp extremum is on 150 days, which means they are trying to meet 180days deadline. But in the current situation there is a huge unprocessed backlog, and no one cares to clean it before getting into new cases. Blame.
/micdrop/
Tell me you were good at stats in uni without telling me XD