Bill C-6: Senate stage

[richard1234]

@walktheline, how did you come up with 2y7m processing time if 3/5 kicks?

 

[spyfy]

@walktheline, how did you come up with 2y7m processing time if 3/5 kicks?

"Divine inspiration", also known as "he made it up"

 

[walktheline]

@walktheline, how did you come up with 2y7m processing time if 3/5 kicks?

It's pretty simple calculation from the CIC official data.

Right now the CIC output is stable at 9000/mo, and inventory is 60,000, so the current processing time is 7m (60,000/9000).

When 3/5 kicks in, there will be suddenly 2 years (1y PR and 1y pre-PR) worth applicants eligible. The last 2 years intake was about 100,000/yr, so total 200,000 surge instantly. If CIC remains the same output of 9000/mo, then there will be extra 2 yr (200,000/9000) processing time on top of current 7m.

Actually the CIC publish so much raw data (http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/33fc9a55-93ac-4984-ba39-90774831f05a) and anyone can do simple analysis with it. You can even calculate the processing time of each individual CIC office. I don't understand why some people accuse me of making that up.

 

[quasar81]

.

Take ACTION here.... Right now, share with friends and family

https://bccla.good.do/citizenship/lang1/

Thanks guys keep it up!!

We need more signatures.

Undecided independent senators are the one who need to know how important is it for C6 that this amendment fails.

 

[spyfy]

It's pretty simple calculation from the CIC official data.

Right now the CIC output is stable at 9000/mo, and inventory is 60,000, so the current processing time is 7m (60,000/9000).

When 3/5 kicks in, there will be suddenly 2 years (1y PR and 1y pre-PR) worth applicants eligible. The last 2 years intake was about 100,000/yr, so total 200,000 surge instantly. If CIC remains the same output of 9000/mo, then there will be extra 2 yr (200,000/9000) processing time on top of current 7m.

Actually the CIC publish so much raw data (http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/33fc9a55-93ac-4984-ba39-90774831f05a) and anyone can do simple analysis with it. You can even calculate the processing time of each individual CIC office. I don't understand why some people accuse me of making that up.

I was only referring to the 2yr part when saying you made it up. I wasn't talking about the rest of your analysis.
What I meant is that to come up with that extra 2 years in processing time, you have to make a lot of assumptions, e.g. that CIC didn't think of this effect of additional intake and maybe reallocating some of their staff to deal with this additional intake. I mean look at the output over the last two years, it dropped significantly. Probably CIC took some staff from the Citizenship program and put them somewhere else. Or do you think they all just got twice as slow? CIC can do the exact same thing the other way if the intake increases.
Furthermore, it is not realistic to assume that everyone who would be all of a sudden eligible will apply the very first day. This additional intake will spread out over months if not years. There are many things that keep people from applying. Work. Family. Money. Laziness...

So that's why I qualified the "2 years plus 7 months" as something made up, because the underlying assumptions are far from realistic:
- CIC not making any organizational changes/staff reallocation decisions
- everyone applying on day one

You are also ignoring that processing time is not just a result of speed of work. I highly doubt someone looks at an application for 7 months non-stop at the moment. There are just completely human reasons for some delays, e.g. wait for letters to be delivered and answered, plan some weeks ahead for ceremonies (you can't schedule someone for an oath "next week"). These parts of the processing time do not scale with the number of applicants. So even under the two assumptions above the calculation doesn't work.

And then there's the fact that you are using the intake numbers from post-C-24 years to make calculations about the future intake under different eligibility rules.

I could go on and on...

I am, by the way, not saying that I can make an exact estimate myself. I'm just saying that "it'll increase by two years" is completely unrealistic. Just taking some numbers and juggling them doesn't make the result more reliable if the underlying assumptions don't work.

 

[walktheline]

So that's why I qualified the "2 years plus 7 months" as something made up, because the underlying assumptions are far from realistic:
- CIC not making any organizational changes/staff reallocation decisions
- everyone applying on day one

Actually these factors are already considered by my calculation.

Here is the CIC resources planing for processing citizenship applications in the next few years. They have no plan to increase resources, it's actually decreasing. Also unlike other activities which CIC has promised targets, they don't promise any targets for processing citizenship applications, it's "TBC based on operational capacity" according to the official statement. That means even they know there will be applications surge, they won't do any thing about it, their operational capacity is fixed, according to current data, it's 9000/mo.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/rpp/2016-2017/#a2.3.2.2
2016-2017
FTEs: 746
Spending: 59,242,589
2017-2018
FTEs: 730
Spending: 57,832,643
2018-2019
FTEs: 727
Spending: 57,482,618

But CIC has Citizenship Awareness target to make sure at least 75% eligible PRs to apply citizenship. So if we use current 250,000 PRs each year, then their target is translated to at least 180,000 citizenship applications each year. In my calculation I only use very optimistic figure of 100,000/year (due to fees increase and 4/6 change) from last 2 years trend. If CIC can meet their target, then the applications surge and processing time increase will be much more than my calculation of 2y7m.

I know the result by analyzing all CIC published info seems to be very hard to swallow. But this is the reality. Don't forget just before C-24, the processing time was still 36 months. So this kind of time is not new.

 

[Confused in Montreal]

Actually these factors are already considered by my calculation.

Here is the CIC resources planing for processing citizenship applications in the next few years. They have no plan to increase resources, it's actually decreasing. Also unlike other activities which CIC has promised targets, they don't promise any targets for processing citizenship applications, it's "TBC based on operational capacity" according to the official statement. That

Also, just to add, CIC will be hiring more as one of the libs promise is cutting down on processing times. They have done a very good job in the realm of spousal sponsorship and parental reunification. Nonetheless, they also got all the Syrian refugees as promised, so if there is a will, there is a way. They need these new citizens to vote for them in next gen elections, so I am sure they will come up with a timeline and a plan. Plus, the lottery results are out for parental sponsorship, so 10,000 applications from there. With electronic repositories, its easier now. The GCMS was overhauled too. Granting PR is more difficult than citizenship as the checks and related shenanigans are fewer. Plus if you see the package, they ask you not to send in a calculation ordered from CBSA and to harass them, only send them the online calc, as data is electronically transmitted to them. Plus your UCI, SIN, finger prints all are linked. One of my friends took the test before C24 and during interview, the agent had all the tax returns, entry exit data etc. He became citizen in 4 months. All my tax paying straight as a stick friends have gotten it in less than 6 months. And one was RQed as he didn't file his taxes for two years post PR. So instead of speculating, go through the package and get all the docs ready. We are talking about CIC processing times and "the great flood" that's gonna come at CIC end yada yada. Try getting a ILETS date when the flood gates open. Majority of the PRs land from outside, they need to show language competencies, not the international students if they qualify for an exemption, so yes it might affect but a big part of it would be for want of documents. I had given ILETS years ago (long live bureaucracy, didn't take my TOEFL and enrollment in an English speaking univ) and at that time I couldn't find any dates for 3 months for GC test of ILETS, but AC was available. So guys, sharing is caring, but being paranoid and speculative is not gonna help. We have Fox news for that already. As I have learned the hard way, plan ahead of time, cover all bases and do your due diligence. Even then 90% of the plans won't work. So chill.

 

[Confused in Montreal]

Majority of the PRs land from outside, they need to show language competencies, not the international students if they qualify for an exemption, so yes it might affect but a big part of it would be for want of documents.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/applications/guides/CIT0002ETOC.asp#CIT0002E4

 

[monalisa]

You must be working in STATCAN...... LOL

Its rubbish conclusions and assumptions never listen to these negative people, they are mostly unsuccessful in canada and they are counting the days to leave somewhere else thinking that it will be a better place ;D

 

[spyfy]

Also, just to add, CIC will be hiring more as one of the libs promise is cutting down on processing times. They have done a very good job in the realm of spousal sponsorship and parental reunification. Nonetheless, they also got all the Syrian refugees as promised, so if there is a will, there is a way. They need these new citizens to vote for them in next gen elections, so I am sure they will come up with a timeline and a plan. Plus, the lottery results are out for parental sponsorship, so 10,000 applications from there. With electronic repositories, its easier now. The GCMS was overhauled too. Granting PR is more difficult than citizenship as the checks and related shenanigans are fewer. Plus if you see the package, they ask you not to send in a calculation ordered from CBSA and to harass them, only send them the online calc, as data is electronically transmitted to them. Plus your UCI, SIN, finger prints all are linked. One of my friends took the test before C24 and during interview, the agent had all the tax returns, entry exit data etc. He became citizen in 4 months. All my tax paying straight as a stick friends have gotten it in less than 6 months. And one was RQed as he didn't file his taxes for two years post PR. So instead of speculating, go through the package and get all the docs ready. We are talking about CIC processing times and "the great flood" that's gonna come at CIC end yada yada. Try getting a ILETS date when the flood gates open. Majority of the PRs land from outside, they need to show language competencies, not the international students if they qualify for an exemption, so yes it might affect but a big part of it would be for want of documents. I had given ILETS years ago (long live bureaucracy, didn't take my TOEFL and enrollment in an English speaking univ) and at that time I couldn't find any dates for 3 months for GC test of ILETS, but AC was available. So guys, sharing is caring, but being paranoid and speculative is not gonna help. We have Fox news for that already. As I have learned the hard way, plan ahead of time, cover all bases and do your due diligence. Even then 90% of the plans won't work. So chill.

word

 

[saph498]

Forum posts about individual experience are not based on a representative sample, far from it. Moreover, the size of the sample is far to small to be anywhere near statistically relevant. And, unfortunately, to a significant extent some of this information derives from unreliable sources.

Spreadsheet data collections suffer likewise.

To the extent there is reliable reporting, such reports can illustrate how quickly (or, conversely, how slowly) IRCC is processing some applications. This is a long way from indicating an average or likely processing time, or how long it takes for most routine applications.

Moreover, average processing time is largely uninformative. An extra long processing time for just a small percentage of applications will skewer the average to be much higher than how long it takes for most applicants.

The median processing time will indicate how long it takes for most (technically one short of most) applications. This information used to be available through statistics Canada (and might still be), albeit in a not easily accessible format. Until around 2011 (time flies and I forget how long it has been precisely), this information was published by CIC, which used to publish how long it took to process 80 percent, and 50 percent, and either 20 or 30 percent (again, I forget precisely) of applications. That was useful information. Unfortunately the Harper government believed this led applicants to begin flooding the system with inquiries about the progress of their individual cases too soon too often too much. (Although, generally the Harper government was also engaged in a profound cutback in information provided the public, and the Liberal government has done little to reverse this.)

IRCC web site currently displays 12 months as the processing time for new applicants. That is based on how long it took to process 80 percent of routine applications in the recent past. This time is typically significantly longer than how long it takes to process 50 percent, or the median, which again would be more useful information.

While in the past, the 80 percent figure tended to be nearly twice as long as the 50 percent amount, as the overall time line decreases the difference between these is also likely to shrink.

Without revisiting Statistics Canada (assuming it still provides the more robust data, including processing times for 50 percent of applications), there is no where near enough reliable data to definitively estimate what the prospective time line is for most applicants today . . . but seven months would be a very good guess (noting that this is not an average but about how long it takes for most applicants).

For anyone who is interested in real data about the timelines, I'd suggest trying to navigate Statistics Canada to find the most recent data that is provided.

Hi, I have a job offer in US for two years. After the Canadian ceremony day am I able to move and work in US for two years?

 

[ghatot201]

Hi, I have a job offer in US for two years. After the Canadian ceremony day am I able to move and work in US for two years?

**trolling**

 

[emamabd]

Hi, I have a job offer in US for two years. After the Canadian ceremony day am I able to move and work in US for two years?

In your other posts you've mentioned that you aren't yet eligible to apply for citizenship - since you've only been a PR for 1 year and 7 months...so how did we suddenly get past that and now talking about the Canadian citizenship ceremony ??? and moving to the US afterwards?

If C-6 doesn't kick in, your ceremony will be 3 years from now at earliest! :-X

 

[Whats up]

Regarding IELTS or language requirements i have found this "International English Language Testing System (IELTS), general training, not the academic version You must have achieved a score of:
4.0 or higher in speaking, and
4.5 or higher in listening. (Please note: If the test was done before November 28, 2008, we will accept a level 4 or higher); or

So is that means If i have my IELTS done in 2012, will it still work?

Please Update.

 

[richard1234]

Regarding IELTS or language requirements i have found this "International English Language Testing System (IELTS), general training, not the academic version You must have achieved a score of:
4.0 or higher in speaking, and
4.5 or higher in listening. (Please note: If the test was done before November 28, 2008, we will accept a level 4 or higher); or

So is that means If i have my IELTS done in 2012, will it still work?

Please Update.

If you have a copy of IELTS results even expires, it works. CIC website quotes "send a copy of your test results with your citizenship application, even if the results have expired."

[reference: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/citizenship/language-step-2.asp)