Analysis of Express Entry Statistics

[ILoveBritishColumbia]

Anyone else notice the added statistics on the draw page?

Yes I noticed that too! Those stats combined with the more accurate info we now have on how many new profiles enter per week, should allow for a more precise analysis and better predictions of how subsequent draws will unfold. I don't have time to do that right now (just received my ITA today!) but will crunch a few numbers soon unless somebody else gets to it before I do. My guess is that things will be looking promising for our fellow hopefuls in the 400-430 range!

 

[picklee]

Yes I noticed that too! Those stats combined with the more accurate info we now have on how many new profiles enter per week, should allow for a more precise analysis and better predictions of how subsequent draws will unfold. I don't have time to do that right now (just received my ITA today!) but will crunch a few numbers soon unless somebody else gets to it before I do. My guess is that things will be looking promising for our fellow hopefuls in the 400-430 range!

Hopefully IRCC will continue to post updated snapshots! Just from these data, we can see that 683 profiles entered the pool above 440 since the 57th draw, March 24-29. That's about 137 per day. At that rate, going two weeks between 3000 ITA draws would mean staying in the mid 430's.

 

[xpressentry]

I noticed it. We don't have to waste $100 for that info

 

[picklee]

Here are the latest numbers from the EE pool as of April 7:

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 7, 2017
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 49
451-600 212
401-450 9,878
441-450 52
431-440 86
421-430 2,973
411-420 3,157
401-410 3,610
351-400 21,118
391-400 3,292
381-390 4,020
371-380 4,380
361-370 4,603
351-360 4,823
301-350 15,608
0-300 2,789
Total 49,654

We should continue to post these numbers so that they are archived for future reference.

 

[picklee]

We could very well see the 410s next week or the week after at this pace.

 

[banea7]

Was going through all the posts..feeling very upset..as I am sitting with 353..seems no hope

 

[picklee]

What seemed impossible in 2015 was possible in 2016.
What was impossible in 2016 became possible in 2017.

The predictions we make on this thread are conservative because they are based on past years' numbers.

In your case, there are about 30,000 candidates above you. The reality is that it is very unlikely to draw below 360, but not impossible. You would have better chances by improving your score with Canadian education, PNP, and language scores.

 

[robb83]

Picklee do you have any more thoughts on the latest data

I'm sitting on 418 and been crunching some analysis between the March 29th and April 7th figures

If they do a draw next week I know I've got ITA

Even if it's 2 weeks it;s looking likely from the figures i've got now, might be a little touch n go.

Just want your take on it.

Appreciated.

 

[picklee]

Picklee do you have any more thoughts on the latest data

I'm sitting on 418 and been crunching some analysis between the March 29th and April 7th figures

If they do a draw next week I know I've got ITA

Even if it's 2 weeks it;s looking likely from the figures i've got now, might be a little touch n go.

Just want your take on it.

Appreciated.

I would wait if I were you. It might not be necessary to re-do language. My guess is that the scores will go into the 410s, particularly given the number of ITAs that need to be issued this year. The bigger question is when the scores will reach 410. With the rates of ITAs recently, people may also be reconsidering the effort associated with PNP.

 

[robb83]

Do you think there will be another draw this month?

With the way the pool currently stands and the weekly amount of people coming in wouldnt fill up that much would it?

 

[picklee]

Do you think there will be another draw this month?

With the way the pool currently stands and the weekly amount of people coming in wouldnt fill up that much would it?

Congrats on your ITA, robb83! Waiting paid off!

 

[picklee]

Here are the latest numbers from the EE pool as of April 13:

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 13, 2017
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 108
451-600 354
401-450 9,120
441-450 93
431-440 136
421-430 2,115
411-420 3,165
401-410 3,611
351-400 21,028
391-400 3,249
381-390 3,992
371-380 4,393
361-370 4,593
351-360 4,801
301-350 15,526
0-300 2,778
Total 48,914

They sure are draining the pool...

 

[lino82]

hi...one easy way is to increase your IELTS to CLB9 ...rather than being upset work hard for one month and get CLB9 (8 for listening and 7 for all other 3) or CLB10 (8.5 for listening /8 for reading and 7.5 for other two)
google search "cambridge11" and open the first link that appears and on the top right menu tab youll see "Exam Library" ...there are 11 series of practice tests and 4 series of recent actual tests...practice all the series (each series contain 4 each listening/reading /writing and speaking tests) in the order Series 11 first to Series 1 last and then try the 4 recent actual Tests also...in total you can do 60 practice listening / reading test and you get as many topics for speacking and writing as well...in a day you should try minimum 2 series....

I dont know your english proficiency,however,you may practice with a friend for speaking as well...securing CLB9 is easy..

another way is to add another year of work experience in ur chosen NOC while waiting...as time passes,your points will see a jump once it reaches overall 3 years of experience..

and,Ontario Provincial Nomination is another chance...now with CRS hovering around 400,they might reduce the CRS requirement for nomination from 400 to 350...and you may hold a chance ...


alternatively,you find a one year course in Ontario,join..you can work part time while studying and get an year of stay back..during study,find a job that will get you one year Canadian Experience (to join for employment once study is over) and you can create a fresh EE and add the canadian work experience which will boost your points...
Get a great IELTS
Add work experiene
See if you can get a Ontario Provincial Nomination (in near future if CRS requirement is below ur score)
or, Enroll rightaway into a course in Ontario,and stay back and continue ur PR application efforts from there....
all the best...

 

[picklee]

Here are the latest numbers from IRCC for the EE pool:

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 28, 2017
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 113
451-600 1,023
401-450 7,178
441-450 318
431-440 462
421-430 453
411-420 2,003
401-410 3,942
351-400 21,582
391-400 3,460
381-390 4,180
371-380 4,437
361-370 4,708
351-360 4,797
301-350 15,675
0-300 2,813
Total 48,384

Quite a few more now hovering in the 451-600 range, which explains why the CRS cut off went up this round.

 

[monavy]

Here are the latest numbers from IRCC for the EE pool:

Quite a few more now hovering in the 451-600 range, which explains why the CRS cut off went up this round.

There was an ielts result on April 21 that might have had its impact.