Analysis of Express Entry Statistics

[robb83]

If I can get a targeted range from them it would put all the stats, ray of light etc threads into perspective.

Ideally that range would be between 400 - 450 broken into buckets of 9

Even though I'm on 418, I still think theres going to be a huge amount of resistance from 420 - 430.

I'd like to be able to put together a few scenarios to see how common that score would be.

Might have a go tonight with that

*one quick example - single person, best age, full ielts, 3 years foreign work experience, no Canadian work experience, a solid 429

Which I feel is a bench mark for people who haven't studied/worked in Canada at all.

A drop in age and not full IELTS - easily means a sub 400 score.

If this next draw goes to 428 or below that would be very interesting.

 

[ILoveBritishColumbia]

I believe there is another way to get at the question of how low the scores will come down this year (the targeted range), and that’s by looking at the additional CRS points that are now awarded for a Canadian education.

According the the “Refocusing Express Entry” report (and subsequent documentation), the purpose of adding additional points for a Canadian education is to boost the chances of international students, who have not fared so well in the EE system prior to this. Now, the decision to add a maximum of 30 additional points cannot be an arbitrary one-- that figure must have been chosen because it will improve the chances of the largest number of international students with good core CRS scores. Thus, if we know the CRS scores of the majority of international students and add 30, that should give us a good idea of the minimum level that CRS scores will drop to.

In fact, there are some good stats on the CRS score ranges of international students. According to the 2015 EE year-end report: “The table below shows the distribution of individuals in the pool who have had a Canadian study permit. A large proportion of them have a CRS score between 376 and 475.”

A portion of this table is reproduced below:

CRS Number of candidates with study permit
351-375 980
376-400 1,290
401-425 1,800
426-450 1,941
451-475 508
476-500 92
501-600 8
601+ 99

So, let’s choose 376 as the minimum score (pre-CRS changes) that includes the most number of international students and then add 30 points (since most of these students will probably be pursuing post-secondary degrees): 376 + 30 = 406.

In other words, 405-406 points is a plausible low-point to which scores will drop this year, based solely on the assumption that one of the primary goals of the Nov 2016 CRS changes is to improve the chances of international students. Of course many other factors come into play, and prioritizing the chances of international students is only one of them. Notice, however, that this figure aligns quite well with the estimate that picklee arrived at independently, earlier in this thread:

If they clear the pool down to 400, that would be inviting the top 20% of candidates, which, depending on how many people are currently in the pool may be necessary to meet the 2017 immigration targets. My calculations are only considering CEC and FSW, so my rate of ITAs may be a bit conservative when considering the other programs.

If these two estimates-- arrived at on independent grounds-- are correct, then there is still hope for you robb83!

 

[robb83]

Thanks, I haven't given up hope, to be honest I just don't want to do IELTS again.

I have started a new job which has been hugely stressful since arriving in Canada.

418 I was originally looking going down the pnp express entry route but now the atlantic immigration pilot could be a choice.

However for a few reason's I wont go into theres a bit more urgency at the moment, I was advised from a very reputable law firm that low 400s is a strong possibility and that more score of 418 which was once weak is now good.

This is why I've put a lot of effort into trying to figure this out, if I get the smallest piece of info from CIC and there's say approx. 20,000 people between 418 and 430 then another 6 draws and I could be in.

 

[xpressentry]

Thanks, I haven't given up hope, to be honest I just don't want to do IELTS again.

I have started a new job which has been hugely stressful since arriving in Canada.

418 I was originally looking going down the pnp express entry route but now the atlantic immigration pilot could be a choice.

However for a few reason's I wont go into theres a bit more urgency at the moment, I was advised from a very reputable law firm that low 400s is a strong possibility and that more score of 418 which was once weak is now good.

This is why I've put a lot of effort into trying to figure this out, if I get the smallest piece of info from CIC and there's say approx. 20,000 people between 418 and 430 then another 6 draws and I could be in.

You cant predict the trend. We can only hope for the best and hope the PNP people get bumped up after your ITA.

 

[robb83]

You cant predict the trend. We can only hope for the best and hope the PNP people get bumped up after your ITA.

If I find out how many applicants are in the pool currently between 418 and 440 I can get a pretty good idea.

If I know that break down in the 9 point buckets I can almost be spot on when or IF I get an ITA

This isn't some random lottery draw style wheel where they pick a ball out and thats the amount of ITA's.

 

[robb83]

Just read this, not sure where they got this from but ill dig later

http://www.cicnews.com/2017/01/crs-requirement-continues-fall-after-recent-changes-express-entry-018819.html

Apparently as of October 3rd 2016 (which I haven't seen anything to support this) there were 60,689 active candidates in the pool.

With some rough math say another 40,000 have entered the pool between then and end of Feb- minus the 12,000 remaining ITA's issued in 2016 means that would be 88,000

The 88,000 minus then approx. 16,000 issue in Jan to Feb this year means there are an additional 12,000 kicking into the pool give or take. I'm doing the maths in my head as I need to get back to work.

So approx. as of end of Feb, it would mean approx. 72,000 people are active candidates in the pool.

I'll have to stop there and have a ponder on what I can then ascertain from this, but interesting figures as of October 2016 if correct.

 

[monavy]

40K ppl entering in 5 months does not make sense.

As of Jan 2016 60K active candidates. (express entry year end report)
Total ITAs issued until Sep 2016 = about 22500
Total active candidates as of Oct 2016 = roughly 60K (figure quoted from the your link)

so total candidates entering from Jan to Sep 2016 22500, an average of 2500 per month.

taking this average, candidates entering the pool from Oct 2016 to Feb 2017 should be roughly 12500.

Just read this, not sure where they got this from but ill dig later


http://www.cicnews.com/2017/01/crs-requirement-continues-fall-after-recent-changes-express-entry-018819.html

Apparently as of October 3rd 2016 (which I haven't seen anything to support this) there were 60,689 active candidates in the pool.

With some rough math say another 40,000 have entered the pool between then and end of Feb- minus the 12,000 remaining ITA's issued in 2016 means that would be 88,000

The 88,000 minus then approx. 16,000 issue in Jan to Feb this year means there are an additional 12,000 kicking into the pool give or take. I'm doing the maths in my head as I need to get back to work.

So approx. as of end of Feb, it would mean approx. 72,000 people are active candidates in the pool.

I'll have to stop there and have a ponder on what I can then ascertain from this, but interesting figures as of October 2016 if correct.

 

[robb83]

The 2000 a week stat is just not just made up, I believe earlier on in the thread this was calculated somehow.

I'm at work so don't have time to look.

If however what you are saying is the case that we are seeing an average of 2500 per month and currently ITA's are being issued at 6000/9000 a month - then the points should be flying down to clear the back log and new people.

If we see 3500ish ITA's tomorrow and not a 5/6 point drop that logic cannot be the case.

 

[monavy]

atleast for 2016 until october, considering the figure you posted, there were no net additions to the pool.
does this hold true for 2017, we don't know.

The 2000 a week stat is just not just made up, I believe earlier on in the thread this was calculated somehow.

I'm at work so don't have time to look.

If however what you are saying is the case that we are seeing an average of 2500 per month and currently ITA's are being issued at 6000/9000 a month - then the points should be flying down to clear the back log and new people.

If we see 3500ish ITA's tomorrow and not a 5/6 point drop that logic cannot be the case.

 

[robb83]

Nice statistical analysis, picklee!

With regard to the distribution of CRS scores, a more detailed breakdown can be extracted from the report titled “Refocusing Express Entry July 26 2016 Stakeholder Consultations” (I was unable to post the hyperlink, but the pdf will come up if you Google the title of this report. Incidentally, this report has lots of other interesting/useful info regarding past and future EE draws and criteria, as mentioned in other threads.)

On p.9 of this report, a bar graph with percentages of candidates in each ten-point range of core CRS scores is given (based on a March 28, 2016 snapshot of active candidates in the pool). The graph only gives a visual representation of percentages; I translated that into (estimated) actual percentages, and then also calculated an estimated number of candidates with that score based on a total of 57,500 active candidates in the pool as of May 2016 (p.4). That yields the following table for percentage and number of candidates with core CRS scores 370 and above:

Core CRS: % # of candidates with that score
370’s 8.1% 4658
380’s 6.8% 3910
390’s 5.4% 3105
400’s 5.7% 3278
410’s 5.3% 3048
420’s 3.9% 2243
430’s 5.2% 2990
440’s 4.6% 2645
450’s .8% 460
460’s+ .5% 288

The graph in this report shows the distribution of “core CRS scores”, that is, CRS scores once the extra points for a job offer or PNP have been removed. As such, it is useful for trying to factor out the influence of those extra job points (previously 600 pts, now 50-200 pts) since that has now changed.

Again, this table/graph and the stats it’s based on are not from 2016 year-end, nor do they reflect the recent CRS changes that give more points for Canadian education, etc. (like the stats in picklee's analysis). Undoubtedly the number of candidates with core CRS scores above 400 has now increased significantly, since a certain percentage of these candidates will now have received up to 30 more points. However, this snapshot does give the breakdown for relative number of candidates in each ten-point range at the time, which is potentially useful for statistical analyses/estimates/extrapolations/speculations/guesses.

I have only just read over this now, comparing to the amount of people to recent draws the pool size must have increase dramatically.

 

[picklee]

40K ppl entering in 5 months does not make sense.

As of Jan 2016 60K active candidates. (express entry year end report)
Total ITAs issued until Sep 2016 = about 22500
Total active candidates as of Oct 2016 = roughly 60K (figure quoted from the your link)

so total candidates entering from Jan to Sep 2016 22500, an average of 2500 per month.

taking this average, candidates entering the pool from Oct 2016 to Feb 2017 should be roughly 12500.

There were in fact over 100k eligible profiles submitted in 2015, despite only 60k being active at year's-end. Hence the average number of profiles entering the pool per month was about 8,000 or 2,000 per week.

Since it was the first year of EE, the figures are not exactly reliable for figuring number of net profiles in 2016 or 2017. However, based on the number of ITAs issued in 2016 and 2017, the EE pool must have grown significantly.

 

[robb83]

True Picklee

But the figure from the document of 57,500 active candidates in the pool as of May 2016 - suggests the volume still shouldn't be that great

Unless this is bogus information

On another note the stats at CIC replied to saying they are looking into my request - so better than just no response.

 

[mr_cyclops]

Guys, any clue why has there been no draw on Mar 15th? Over 2 weeks have passed and there is no absolutely no news on this :-/

 

[robb83]

There is no set schedule for the draw, we are all just going off of the pattern that is fairly consistent.

This draw and next will help aid a lot in the stats, number of ITA's issued and the lowest CRS score.

If after 2 weeks we see another drop and an increase in ITA's ..... well it's looking good for a lot of us with lower scores.

Somehow I don't think this will be the case.

Still hoping I get a reply back from the CIC on my stats request.

 

[xpressentry]

I wasnt in the pool and i am now at 472. so someone with a lower score will not get an ITA because of me.