Analysis of Express Entry Statistics

[robb83]

The candidates with CRS 400 and below then PNP I still believe is the best and only option for them.

CRS scores are not going to hit the 400 point, unless there are not as many candidates in the pool as i'm presuming (estimating).

Based purely on the amount of ITA's issued so far in 2017 of 20K I cannot see the cut off ever reaching 400.

I think theres a lot of excitement for people around the 420/430 mark as from last year that score would never have been considered a good chance of getting an ITA.

This I think has lead peoples perception to believe it will keep going down, which it will slightly depending on how regular the draws are and the amount of new entries.

I think we will start to see a level out around 425 with most draws being kept around this until the PNP one.

With me sitting on 418 at the moment I think the best option would be to re-take IELTS or CELPIP until I get full marks across all tests. That way my profile would get a 30/40 point bump from memory.

With a score then of 448 or 458 I'd be guaranteed ITA at any point.

 

[picklee]

The candidates with CRS 400 and below then PNP I still believe is the best and only option for them.

CRS scores are not going to hit the 400 point, unless there are not as many candidates in the pool as i'm presuming (estimating).

Based purely on the amount of ITA's issued so far in 2017 of 20K I cannot see the cut off ever reaching 400.

I think theres a lot of excitement for people around the 420/430 mark as from last year that score would never have been considered a good chance of getting an ITA.

This I think has lead peoples perception to believe it will keep going down, which it will slightly depending on how regular the draws are and the amount of new entries.

In my analysis, I divided probable remaining ITAs by 20 remaining draws, but I want to revise that:

67,909 Target ITAs for CEC + FSW 2017 quotas
-20,883 ITAs issued to-date in 2017
=47,026 ITAs outstanding today

27 Draws in 2016
-5 Draws to-date in 2017
=22 Draws remaining

47,026/22 = 2,138 ITAs per draw for CEC + FSW

I think the CRS scores must come down if IRCC keeps this pace. We've seen huge changes in the number of ITAs per draw and CRS scores since the changes in November 2016. It seems IRCC noticed their distribution of candidates was bi-modal and sought to correct it by reducing job offers from 600 to 200/50. This change puts more weighting on the core CRS score.

There was a lot of resistance in the 450s, draws 52 and 53.
What's interesting about draws 54 and 55 is that the number of ITAs in draw 55 was lower than draw 54, but CRS score still declined.

 

[dell2]

Thanks for TLDR

 

[ILoveBritishColumbia]

We've seen huge changes in the number of ITAs per draw and CRS scores since the changes in November 2016. It seems IRCC noticed their distribution of candidates was bi-modal and sought to correct it by reducing job offers from 600 to 200/50. This change puts more weighting on the core CRS score.

I agree! One question: the estimate of 32% of new profiles falling in the 451-500 range strikes me as too great. That 32% figure is based on the cumulative number of all ITAs issued from Jan thru Jun 2016, rather than on a snapshot of distribution of candidate scores at any given moment. Are the two really equivalent? In other words, can we really say that if 32% of all ITAs during a certain time period went to candidates with scores of 451-500, that means 32% of new candidates entering the pool in the next 1-2 weeks will also have scores in that range?

The reason I ask is that the distribution of core CRS scores from the March 28, 2016 snapshot shows very small percentages above 450. Perhaps I'm not understanding something, but that suggests to me that % of ITAs issued to a given score range during a 6-month period does not translate to % of new candidates entering the pool on a weekly or biweekly basis with that same score range.

 

[picklee]

I agree! One question: the estimate of 32% of new profiles falling in the 451-500 range strikes me as too great. That 32% figure is based on the cumulative number of all ITAs issued from Jan thru Jun 2016, rather than on a snapshot of distribution of candidate scores at any given moment. Are the two really equivalent? In other words, can we really say that if 32% of all ITAs during a certain time period went to candidates with scores of 451-500, that means 32% of new candidates entering the pool in the next 1-2 weeks will also have scores in that range?

It's a fair point. Generally yes, we can assume that the rates of candidates with score X entering the pool follows the same distribution as those who are in the pool at any given point. This assumption is not valid when there is evidence to suggest that the rate or distribution has changed for some reason. This is the case currently because the snapshot is prior to the big changes in November 2016.

The reason I ask is that the distribution of core CRS scores from the March 28, 2016 snapshot shows very small percentages above 450. Perhaps I'm not understanding something, but that suggests to me that % of ITAs issued to a given score range during a 6-month period does not translate to % of new candidates entering the pool on a weekly or biweekly basis with that same score range.

Probably both the rate (%) and distribution of EE profiles has changed since these reports. A perfect score of 600 in core CRS will have very few candidates, if any. I don't think it is very surprising that such a small percentage of candidates have scores over 450. Also, the March 28 data came 5 days after a draw of 1,014 at CRS 470, so that may have skewed those data slightly.

My profile with spouse is 514, with only 30 point bump from Canadian education. So my core CRS is 484, but I also have a PhD.

 

[robb83]

In my analysis, I divided probable remaining ITAs by 20 remaining draws, but I want to revise that:

67,909 Target ITAs for CEC + FSW 2017 quotas
-17,272 ITAs issued to-date in 2017
=50,637 ITAs outstanding today

27 Draws in 2016
-5 Draws to-date in 2017
=22 Draws remaining

50,637/22 = 2,302 ITAs per draw for CEC + FSW

I think the CRS scores must come down if IRCC keeps this pace. We've seen huge changes in the number of ITAs per draw and CRS scores since the changes in November 2016. It seems IRCC noticed their distribution of candidates was bi-modal and sought to correct it by reducing job offers from 600 to 200/50. This change puts more weighting on the core CRS score.

There was a lot of resistance in the 450s, draws 52 and 53.
What's interesting about draws 54 and 55 is that the number of ITAs in draw 55 was lower than draw 54, but CRS score still declined.

Where did you get 17K from for ITA's I believe from top of my head its 20ish

Why at 2300 ITA's per draw would they need to drop the points any more?

From what we talked about before we said that approx new 2000 people per week are applying, of those approx 700 have a score of 451 or above.

Unless there is data to suggest that each draw is clearing a majority of existing people in the pool as appose to new entries then yes the points will have to decrease.

The snap shot as of Jan 2016 means little at this point

430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

Is there any way to make a prediction on what these ranges now look like based on available data?

We know that

4000 applicants were in the below range (440-499) as of then.

Fast forward to now and we required 20,000 to clear that range.

 

[picklee]

Where did you get 17K from for ITA's I believe from top of my head its 20ish

You are right, I forgot to add the last draw. I revised the numbers in that post.

Why at 2300 ITA's per draw would they need to drop the points any more?

From what we talked about before we said that approx new 2000 people per week are applying, of those approx 700 have a score of 451 or above.

Unless there is data to suggest that each draw is clearing a majority of existing people in the pool as appose to new entries then yes the points will have to decrease.

The snap shot as of Jan 2016 means little at this point

430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

Is there any way to make a prediction on what these ranges now look like based on available data?

We know that

4000 applicants were in the below range (440-499) as of then.

Fast forward to now and we required 20,000 to clear that range.

Yes, if anything, the 20,000 ITAs to-date that cleared the 440-499 range indicates two possibilities:
(1) there are significantly more candidates in the pool in 2017 than a year earlier; and/or
(2) the changes to points in November 2016 shifted a significant portion of candidates to or above that range.

The percentiles are more robust indicators across time. As of January 2016, the calculated percentiles were:

CRS score range	Number of profiles	Percentile (score greater than % of all profiles)
1000 - 1200	236	100
950 - 999	219	99.6
900 - 949	191	99.2
850 - 899	65	98.9
800 - 849	66	98.8
750 - 799	40	98.7
700 - 749	22	98.6
650 - 699	11	98.6
600 - 649	1	98.6
550 - 599	0	98.6
500 - 549	46	98.6
450 - 499	1,613	98.5
440 - 449	2,486	95.8
430 - 439	2,842	91.7
420 - 429	2,185	86.9
410 - 419	2,899	83.3
400 - 409	3,125	78.5
390 - 399	3,144	73.3
380 - 389	3,989	68.0
370 - 379	4,814	61.4
360 - 369	4,878	53.4
350 - 359	5,026	45.3
340 - 349	5,107	36.9
330 - 339	4,611	28.4
320 - 329	3,898	20.7
310 - 319	2,883	14.2
300 - 309	1,934	9.4
250 - 299	2,832	6.2
200 - 249	543	1.5
150 - 199	238	0.6
100 - 149	75	0.2
<100	23	0

From this snapshot, we see that profiles in the 440-499 range were between the 95th and 98th percentiles! One other important piece of information: the January 6 2016 draw (#24) invited 1,463 profiles with a minimum CRS score of 461. That draw must have cleared down to about the 98.5th percentile.

My rationale for why the CRS score must continue to drop if +2,000 ITAs are issued is that there just aren't enough candidates to re-fill those higher scores completely. The most recent draw cleared down to 434 or the bottom of the 91st percentile.

If they clear the pool down to 400, that would be inviting the top 20% of candidates, which, depending on how many people are currently in the pool may be necessary to meet the 2017 immigration targets. My calculations are only considering CEC and FSW, so my rate of ITAs may be a bit conservative when considering the other programs.

 

[robb83]

You are right, I forgot to add the last draw. I revised the numbers in that post.

Yes, if anything, the 20,000 ITAs to-date that cleared the 440-499 range indicates two possibilities:
(1) there are significantly more candidates in the pool in 2017 than a year earlier; and/or
(2) the changes to points in November 2016 shifted a significant portion of candidates to or above that range.

The percentiles are more robust indicators across time. As of January 2016, the calculated percentiles were:

CRS score range	Number of profiles	Percentile (score greater than % of all profiles)
1000 - 1200	236	100
950 - 999	219	99.6
900 - 949	191	99.2
850 - 899	65	98.9
800 - 849	66	98.8
750 - 799	40	98.7
700 - 749	22	98.6
650 - 699	11	98.6
600 - 649	1	98.6
550 - 599	0	98.6
500 - 549	46	98.6
450 - 499	1,613	98.5
440 - 449	2,486	95.8
430 - 439	2,842	91.7
420 - 429	2,185	86.9
410 - 419	2,899	83.3
400 - 409	3,125	78.5
390 - 399	3,144	73.3
380 - 389	3,989	68.0
370 - 379	4,814	61.4
360 - 369	4,878	53.4
350 - 359	5,026	45.3
340 - 349	5,107	36.9
330 - 339	4,611	28.4
320 - 329	3,898	20.7
310 - 319	2,883	14.2
300 - 309	1,934	9.4
250 - 299	2,832	6.2
200 - 249	543	1.5
150 - 199	238	0.6
100 - 149	75	0.2
<100	23	0

From this snapshot, we see that profiles in the 440-499 range were between the 95th and 98th percentiles! One other important piece of information: the January 6 2016 draw (#24) invited 1,463 profiles with a minimum CRS score of 461. That draw must have cleared down to about the 98.5th percentile.

My rationale for why the CRS score must continue to drop if +2,000 ITAs are issued is that there just aren't enough candidates to re-fill those higher scores completely. The most recent draw cleared down to 434 or the bottom of the 91st percentile.

If they clear the pool down to 400, that would be inviting the top 20% of candidates, which, depending on how many people are currently in the pool may be necessary to meet the 2017 immigration targets. My calculations are only considering CEC and FSW, so my rate of ITAs may be a bit conservative when considering the other programs.

What makes you think there are not enough re-fill candidates if we are getting 2000 per week?

I agree that the points must continue to drop if there aren't sufficient new people entering with +434 scores AND the pool is then cleared.

So 2 weeks on this draw could yield approx. 4000 additional candidates, with say 3500 ITA's being issued.

If we then say of this 4000 close to 1500 are new candidates with over 434 then we have another 2000 ITA's that would be available to reduce the CRS points

Would that then be enough to maintain another 6 point drop?

Maybe my figures in terms of how many new people will come in with over 434 is a bit skewed but that was based on the number I think you previously provided of around 700

I think there is ALOT more people in the pool through the 420-430 range than what people are hoping more, probably 3/4 times the amount.

It took 6 draws to drop 34 points

I don't think another 6 draws will see us at 400

 

[picklee]

What makes you think there are not enough re-fill candidates if we are getting 2000 per week?

I agree that the points must continue to drop if there aren't sufficient new people entering with +434 scores AND the pool is then cleared.

So 2 weeks on this draw could yield approx. 4000 additional candidates, with say 3500 ITA's being issued.

If we then say of this 4000 close to 1500 are new candidates with over 434 then we have another 2000 ITA's that would be available to reduce the CRS points

Would that then be enough to maintain another 6 point drop?

Maybe my figures in terms of how many new people will come in with over 434 is a bit skewed but that was based on the number I think you previously provided of around 700

I think there is ALOT more people in the pool through the 420-430 range than what people are hoping more, probably 3/4 times the amount.

It took 6 draws to drop 34 points

I don't think another 6 draws will see us at 400

It really comes down to the rate of people entering the pool, which is a big unknown and very dynamic. Although I did read this in the 2015 report:

It is important to note that the distribution of the pool changes every time a new candidate enters or leaves the Express Entry pool. On January 3, 2016, when the above distribution was taken from the pool, about 900 candidates had a CRS score above 460. These are mostly candidates who enter the pool following the last invitation round of 2015.

So between 18DEC2015 and 03JAN2016, about 900 candidates entered the pool with score above 460. That is a rate of about 400 per week. I estimated that 627 profiles would be added weekly in the range of 451-500 based on the distribution of invited scores. That quote by IRCC suggest that the rate of added profiles is higher for higher scores. IRCC even admits:

Candidates with a CRS score below 450 have never been issued an invitation to apply and the majority of them have been in the pool for more than a few months.

The question remains: why doesn't IRCC just wait until higher ranking candidates are added to the pool like in the past years instead of using up so many valuable ITAs on the first draws of the year?

Statistics aside, this logic suggests that we will continue to see more draws with large numbers of ITAs, perhaps converging on my estimated 2,138 ITAs per draw, on average, over the remaining draws.

 

[robb83]

I'm all for logic as sitting on 418 would get me in without having to re-do IELTS or CELPIP now that i'm in Canada.

Next draw I think will help tell us a lot.

If the ITA's remain high at around 3500 and the points don't do another 6 point drop it will mean that either a huge amount of people with 434+ entered the pool OR if theres a slight drop say 432/430 then we know there's a huge amount of people waiting with these "lower scores"

As I said it took a point score drop of 34 to clear 20,000 people

How many more people are sitting between 400 - 434 - double, triple that amount?

If the amount of ITA's drops to around 2000 mark (which I think it will to) combined with the occasional PNP draw thrown in I can see the points possibly dropping but very slowly or staying constant.

I can't see 3000+ continuing, I think the next two draws will prove my logic right or wrong.

 

[robb83]

I've requested data from CIC statistics to see if they will provide anything.

 

[robb83]

Adding this bit of data from my other post


In 2016 they rarely issued over 2000 ITA's a draw, in total they issued 33,000 ITA's in 2016

We've already had 20,000 issued in 2 months

To keep their target going they would have to double the ITA's issued every month in comparison to 2016

In 2016 that doubled figure would be 16,000 to the 20,000 in 2017 after 6 draws.

Which from a ball park figure seems they would then be on course to hit the 70,000 comfortably

If they splice in 2/3 PNP draws this year (i'm not sure on that just guessing) then the figures could continue close to the rate they are going now.

Unfortunately it doesn't really help much in terms of then applying that to a point drop or how many people are currently in the pool in the various point ranges.

Maybe it strengths the case of ITA's staying the same the points must go down as the pool (even with a new 2000ish a week) would not re-populate in time.

 

[robb83]

auto generated response from CIC - they are reviewing my request.

 

[picklee]

auto generated response from CIC - they are reviewing my request.

+1 Cool! It would be nice to get some recent data!

 

[picklee]

Cross post analysis from Ray of Hope 57 thread:

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/ray-of-hope-57th-draw-predictions-t477276.0.html;msg5837453#msg5837453

People with job offers are a small majority of invited candidates and a minority of the larger EE pool:

18,570 candidates with job offers were invited to apply in 2015, about 59.8% of all ITAs
101,928 eligible EE profiles were submitted in 2015

We can assume with a good deal of certainty that anyone who had a job offer in 2015 was invited to apply, because it would have put them above all draws with the +600 point bump.

That would mean that candidates with job offers accounted for only about 18% of all EE profiles in 2015.

IRCC data (table below) shows that the majority (89%) of candidates with job offers or PNP have core CRS scores between 150-450 and the majority are below 400 (82%). About half (48%) are between 200-350. The changes to job offer points means that the majority of those candidates will probably get a 50 point bump, since most job offers are not senior management positions (NOC 00).

Core CRS Score	Active Profiles	Invited candidates without job offer or PNP	Invited candidates with job offer or PNP	Final CRS score with job offer or PNP
550 - 599	0	12	1	1150 - 1200
500 - 549	48	1,259	134	1100 - 1149
450 - 499	1,640	11,222	662	1050 - 1099
400 - 449	13,744	-	2560	1000 - 1049
350 - 399	22,070	-	2383	950 - 999
300 - 349	18,624	-	2976	900 - 949
250 - 299	2,897	-	2849	850 - 899
200 - 249	609	-	3075	800 - 849
150 - 199	278	-	2601	750 - 799
100 -149	97	-	1033	700 - 749
<100	35	-	296	< 700

That would mean that the changes to points for job offers will likely result in an increase in profiles between 250-400 with some marginal increases above 400. In these data, PNP and job offers are lumped together, but the conclusion is the same that most candidates below 400 core CRS are probably PNP and any possible gains must be between 250-400 for non-PNP candidates with job offers.

Data table source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp

If you look at these two graphs together of 2015 data:

You will notice that PNP candidates makes up the majority of candidates in the 900-1100 range and that trend will probably continue since there has been no change to how many points are awarded for PNP.

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/analysis-of-express-entry-statistics-t476369.0.html;msg5831594#msg5831594

From this analysis, I am concluding that there will be significant resistance at 400, and I would not expect scores to fall below 410 this year.