7th draw done, ITAs 925 and cut off score 469

[visaowl]

From the picture that I got from the forum quite a few people were rejecting ITA's. Maybe that impacted why they drew less and the score is that high.

Let's assume 30% people in this pool were previous ITA holders; 650 people in the pool in two weeks is still a very fast buildup of the pool. CIC has lot of avenues in their hand to control the intake; this was just one (increasing the score); only CEC holders was another one; manipulating intake number is another one; and obviously allowing a resting time for the pool to build up is another one. CIC statisticians are doing a lot of A/B testing behind the scenes based on this very stochastic phenomenon. This goes in line with what they said that gradually they want to settle in a certain band of scores. They are just trying to see what bands will that be. 380-425+ is a very interesting band of scores for CIC to play in. I feel that 400+ is a very safe score for EE; it is just a matter of time.

It is an excellent maneuver by CIC statisticians; bet they were fed up by the threads on this forum every day predicting the next score.

 

[EasyCanadaVisa]

We never questioned their transparency when they dropped the score by 254 points in 5th draw, then why now?

The number of ITAs are inconsistent in every draw

 

[mbakhan]

I agree! A lot of people in the forum rejected ITA's and there could be hundreds outside this forum who did the same thing. I think this draw is just a correction for those people. Let's stay positive and see what happens on the next draw!

I think its just the adjustment for the people declining invitations for sure, further, they have to maintain a decent score at least in the beginning of the EE, they can't just fall to 250 CRS Points, they have to keep intact the main purpose of the EE i.e. selecting the most eligible candidates, and they only way they can do it is by reducing the number of invitations certain times to make sure that the point drop in not much.

 

[mbakhan]

Let's assume 30% people in this pool were previous ITA holders; 650 people in the pool is still a very fast buildup of the pool. CIC has lot of avenues in their hand to control the intake; this was just one; only CEC holders was another one; manipulating intake number is another one; and obviously allowing a resting time for the pool to build up is another one. CIC statisticians are doing a lot of A/B testing behind the scenes based on this very stochastic phenomenon. This goes in line with what they said that gradually they want to settle in a certain band of scores. They are just trying to see what bands will that be. 380-425+ is a very interesting band of scores for CIC to play in.

It is an excellent maneuver by CIC statisticians; bet they were fed up by the threads on this forum every day predicting the next score.

Really, this forum could be their free input from the market and what people and candidates are up to and what are their expectations, its actually a very smart move, and yes even 650 is way too much in just two weeks.

And I think its a general draw and not specific, perhaps we should stop SH*T THINGS like below to stop giving them inputs:

1. "people between 300-350 gather here",
2. "I have XXX CRS scores, when should I expect and ITA",
3. "I think the next draw will be on XX MONTH with CRS points XXX and candidates XX", and specially
4. "My predictions have been true so far, look what I said one million years ago, see its pretty close, just 1200 points difference", and
5. "According to my design model simulating the trend of draws in EE, I predict the following BU#LSH^T and see how the EE system works" !

 

[fpnc2983]

No, its because they picked less number of candidates, had they picked more, points would have certainly dropped !

same thoughts. they drew less that is why the score is higher

 

[rkapoor123]

Is there anyone with score more than 469 who has still not received ITA?

 

[EasyCanadaVisa]

Is there anyone with score more than 469 who has still not received ITA?

ME... For a client ofcourse

 

[mbakhan]

Is there anyone with score more than 469 who has still not received ITA?

I believe it takes up to one day for some to receive ITA, so some people may need to wait a bit.

 

[rkapoor123]

ME... For a client ofcourse

Thanks keep me posted if and when your client receives anything

 

[EasyCanadaVisa]

Thanks keep me posted if and when your client receives anything

Whats your CRS?

 

[fpnc2983]

on the brighter side, i guess the next cutoff will be lower. ;D

 

[purohit]

Got under fsw.

 

[Theo123]

i dont think they are doing this on purpose to play with us. i think this has to do with the number of people they are going to need for these 2 weeks and the system adjusts the score to match the closest possible number of ITA they wanted, and the system calculated the CRS score of 469 with 900+ invitations. so my hunch is that anyone with a score 400 and below may not get an invitation even by june as there are a lot of people applying in droves seeing that they can get 450-500+ scores. there will also be people who will tell their friends about how reachable and quick it is to get an ITA and i think that will affect those with 420 and below dramatically.

lets hope for the best and expect the worst.

 

[visaowl]

i dont think they are doing this on purpose to play with us. i think this has to do with the number of people they are going to need for these 2 weeks and the system adjusts the score to match the closest possible number of ITA they wanted, and the system calculated the CRS score of 469 with 900+ invitations. so my hunch is that there with score 400 and below may not be reached even by june. there are a lot of people joining i guess.

Agreed, <400 score is going to be difficult in the near future. But this is CIC, we cannot say anything for sure. 400+ range sure is very competitive. And CIC gave itself a very wide range of draws 15-25 in 2015. 7 are already gone.

People don't reject your ITAs. Make sure everything is right on the first go itself.

 

[MedZed]

If there were 925 people with 469+ scores just in two weeks,god knows how many candidates are sitting at 350 to 450!
I think CIC wants to keep the cut off score in a certain level, it's pretty obvious by the number of ITAs issued in this draw!