420 to 425 connect here

[chemEmanju]

Hello folks
I created this topic to help each other out if you are in the score between 420 to 425
hopefully, we will get the ITA soon
As everybody is predicting the points could cross 410 mark and below
we have a reason to be optimistic

 

[teekayx]

Hope so. I had almost lost hope in December but Feb onwards the cut off seems to be dipping.

About how many more draws it might take if it ever drops down to 420?

 

[Ascent]

Hope so. I had almost lost hope in December but Feb onwards the cut off seems to be dipping.

About how many more draws it might take if it ever drops down to 420?

Looking at current trends, 420 is not much far may be couple of draws i-e end off March or Start of April,

 

[last_try]

yes.. mid 410-420 by may.

 

[alizaidi]

At exact 420. Created profile on February 2017 was thinking to re-appear in IELTS but last draw has given me much hope and postponed the idea of re-appearing in IELTS. Next 2-3 draws are very crucial for us *Fingers Crossed*

 

[Manylivesmanymasters]

The 420s make some noise

 

[VisionAD]

I got 422..Lets see when luck clicks

 

[Bhavleen]

Hi

Mine is 425... I received an Ontario notification of interest and I submitted my application as well.

But if in case the draw comes in my favour would I be able to withdraw application from Ontario and apply direct through CIC.

Also does Ontario PNP asks for documents if they are unclear or straight away rejects it ??

 

[Ascent]

Hi

Mine is 425... I received an Ontario notification of interest and I submitted my application as well.

But if in case the draw comes in my favour would I be able to withdraw application from Ontario and apply direct through CIC.

Also does Ontario PNP asks for documents if they are unclear or straight away rejects it ??

Yes you will be able to withdraw your application but you won't get the refund..!!!

 

[robb83]

418 so im coming in here to lol 8)

I think 425 will in the next 3 draws

I don't think we will continue to see drops in points of 6 - I think it will go down by 3/4 now and might stay around early 420's for a draw or 2.

Then the next 1 or 2 after that I'll hopefully be in, depends when the PNP one happens.

That could cause the points to go up for a little then maybe back down.

 

[Srushti]

Predictions: Scores will drop by 4-5 points in the coming draws and will touch lowest @410 by mid-MAY and start rising from there again

 

[robb83]

I think there has to be a sufficient gap so that it makes the 600 point PNP still worthwhile as anyone sitting on 400 (and knew they'd get EE) could just ignore that option altogether.

 

[alizaidi]

It all depends on the number of invitations per draw. If CIC keep the number of invitations per draw for at least greater than 2000. Its highly likely that above 400 gets direct ITA in coming months.

 

[robb83]

It all depends on the number of invitations per draw. If CIC keep the number of invitations per draw for at least greater than 2000. Its highly likely that above 400 gets direct ITA in coming months.

If we had year end 2016 figures we would be able to get a very accurate feel for our chances.

If 6000/9000 ITA's are being issued each month and we have approx. 2000 new applicants each week as long as a majority are below 415 we have a good chance of getting in.

I think we will see it start to slow down now though as going off the figures from the CIC website theres a lot of people around the 415 - 430 mark, so I imagine 4 point drops will be the norm and still see 3000ish ITA's

 

[alizaidi]

If we had year end 2016 figures we would be able to get a very accurate feel for our chances.

If 6000/9000 ITA's are being issued each month and we have approx. 2000 new applicants each week as long as a majority are below 415 we have a good chance of getting in.

I think we will see it start to slow down now though as going off the figures from the CIC website theres a lot of people around the 415 - 430 mark, so I imagine 4 point drops will be the norm and still see 3000ish ITA's

Agreed. I don't know why they have not published the 2016 year end report. We could easily predict then. 2000 new applicants each week seems a bit exaggeration though i don't think that 2000 applicants are entering into the pool each week. According to the 2015 report:

400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

you can see on average there are only 2700 applicant per 10 scale above 400. If you even multiply these figures with 3, you will get 8kish per 10 and assuming that there are no applicants above 434, 420 to 434 have a very good chance in coming months provided the number of invitation remains same per draw like 3000+

In addition to this, as this thread is for 420-425 lets take these scales (Keep in mind 434 above applicants all have the ITAs):

430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185

Now total is 5027 multiply it by 3 and you will get 15081. Assume as CIC keep issuing 3000 plus ITAs then in 2 to 3 months all above 420 will be getting ITAs. If there were so many applicants in the pool CRS would have come down in that pace so multiplying by 3 is worst case in my opinion. Keep hopes high guys lets see the next number of ITAs. Mora ITAs in next draw more chances for all of us.