420 to 425 connect here

[teekayx]

Agreed. I don't know why they have not published the 2016 year end report. We could easily predict then. 2000 new applicants each week seems a bit exaggeration though i don't think that 2000 applicants are entering into the pool each week. According to the 2015 report:

400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

you can see on average there are only 2700 applicant per 10 scale above 400. If you even multiply these figures with 3, you will get 8kish per 10 and assuming that there are no applicants above 434, 420 to 434 have a very good chance in coming months provided the number of invitation remains same per draw like 3000+

In addition to this, as this thread is for 420-425 lets take these scales (Keep in mind 434 above applicants all have the ITAs):

430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185

Now total is 5027 multiply it by 3 and you will get 15081. Assume as CIC keep issuing 3000 plus ITAs then in 2 to 3 months all above 420 will be getting ITAs. If there were so many applicants in the pool CRS would have come down in that pace so multiplying by 3 is worst case in my opinion. Keep hopes high guys lets see the next number of ITAs. Mora ITAs in next draw more chances for all of us.

sounds reasonable to me. But then again CIC has a way of disproving all ballparks. Anyway, I am happy to see where we're headed. It sure is way better than last year!

Sincerely,
A 420ian

 

[robb83]

Agreed. I don't know why they have not published the 2016 year end report. We could easily predict then. 2000 new applicants each week seems a bit exaggeration though i don't think that 2000 applicants are entering into the pool each week. According to the 2015 report:

400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

you can see on average there are only 2700 applicant per 10 scale above 400. If you even multiply these figures with 3, you will get 8kish per 10 and assuming that there are no applicants above 434, 420 to 434 have a very good chance in coming months provided the number of invitation remains same per draw like 3000+

In addition to this, as this thread is for 420-425 lets take these scales (Keep in mind 434 above applicants all have the ITAs):

430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185

Now total is 5027 multiply it by 3 and you will get 15081. Assume as CIC keep issuing 3000 plus ITAs then in 2 to 3 months all above 420 will be getting ITAs. If there were so many applicants in the pool CRS would have come down in that pace so multiplying by 3 is worst case in my opinion. Keep hopes high guys lets see the next number of ITAs. Mora ITAs in next draw more chances for all of us.

The problem is as ive put in the stats thread, they cannot keep issuing 3000 plus ITA's

If there target of 70,000 is to be believed and accurate (I presume they wouldn't want to go over)

With 30 draws this year at 3K a draw you'd be looking at 90,000 - I just don't see them doing that.

If the next drop is another 6 points, to me that means they have cleared out that range of CRS based on how many ITA's they decide to grant.

Taking the data there - currently majority above 434 has been cleared this year, which is approx. 20k ITA's so far - unfortunately according to that data as of Jan 2016 we can see there must have been a big increase in the amount of people in the pool.

If 3000+ ITA's are clearing 6 points at a time then you'd have to by all accounts predict it would keep dropping.

However they cannot keep giving up 3000+ ITA's and how much does the volume of people waiting at another 6 point drop equal, are there 3600 worth of ITA's up to 429 for example, and so on.

With the year end 2016 data we would be able to know based on current trends pretty much, whos CRS point would likely to get an invite and when.

 

[alizaidi]

The problem is as ive put in the stats thread, they cannot keep issuing 3000 plus ITA's

If there target of 70,000 is to be believed and accurate (I presume they wouldn't want to go over)

With 30 draws this year at 3K a draw you'd be looking at 90,000 - I just don't see them doing that.

If the next drop is another 6 points, to me that means they have cleared out that range of CRS based on how many ITA's they decide to grant.

Taking the data there - currently majority above 434 has been cleared this year, which is approx. 20k ITA's so far - unfortunately according to that data as of Jan 2016 we can see there must have been a big increase in the amount of people in the pool.

If 3000+ ITA's are clearing 6 points at a time then you'd have to by all accounts predict it would keep dropping.

However they cannot keep giving up 3000+ ITA's and how much does the volume of people waiting at another 6 point drop equal, are there 3600 worth of ITA's up to 429 for example, and so on.

With the year end 2016 data we would be able to know based on current trends pretty much, whos CRS point would likely to get an invite and when.

I agree that they cant give 3000+ ITA's in each draw and i have already analyzed this situation from last two years:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp

68000 total quota was allotted for FSWP and CEC and 31,063 total ITA's were issued in 2015

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-03-08.asp

58,400 total quota was allotted for FSWP and CEC and 27,828 ITAs were issued in 2016

75,300 total quota was allotted for FSWP and CEC and 20,903 ITAs have already been issued

As per above trend, don't you think that realistically, they have only 15000-20000 ITAs left to give in remaining 2017?

I understand that this thread must be for hope but lets analyze the situation realistically and critically Thoughts?

 

[alizaidi]

Secondly, ITAs is another thing and quota is another thing. As per my understanding:

1 ITA = 1 primary applicant in EE system

If quota is 1000 per month and ITAs are issued 500 per month and on average one applicant is bringing one family member with him than 500*2 = 1000 quota is full right?

Correct me if I am wrong please?

Because if in 2015 and 2016 quota was 68000 and 58,400 respectively, why were the ITAs issued way less than that?

 

[Srushti]

ITAs issues are always more than the quota for that particular year because of rejection/withdrawal rates which both put together would in the 20-30% bracket