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21st Draw !!! Nov 27 with 450 or less cutoff

myselfchinmay

myselfchinmay

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Oct 20, 2014
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Hi Guys,

I am guessing next draw will be on Nov 27th and with cutoff less than or near to 450. What's your best guess says ?

Let's hope for the best !!!

thanks, :) :)
 
Today, there are two good thing happened.

1. Draw continues under new government with avg number of invitation 1506
2. Cutoff goes to 484 down by 5 points
 
The best guess is it won't be less than 450 before the year ends...and it won't be more than 480 possibly...
Good luck to all of us... :) :) ;)
 
myselfchinmay said:
Hi Guys,

I am guessing next draw will be on Nov 27th and with cutoff less than or near to 450. What's your best guess says ?

Let's hope for the best !!!

thanks, :) :)
Click to expand...

If someone were to scan the forum for all those optimistic posts about score going below 450 in the next draw (Its always the next draw starting from the very first one) I'm sure there'll be more than 1000 posts about the same thing. Now, how many of them were wrong? Every single one of them. LOL. Need I say anything more?
 
myselfchinmay said:
2. Cutoff goes to 484 down by 5 points
Click to expand...

Not sure how good this is though. Every 3 weeks CIC is able to find 1500 people with 480+ scores (as shown by last two draws). So if CIC does not draw in the next 2 weeks, score may stay at 480+. When CIC draws every 2 weeks they are able to get 1500 people with 450+ score (as shown by last couple of months).

And don't forget last 2 draws were 480 + after a gap of 3 weeks each which means a huge pool would have grown between 450 and 480 itself. At best if a draw happens in 2 weeks, people between 450 and 480 would have waited for 2 months. How much will the pool have swelled in 8 weeks? How much do you think the score will fall? Below 450, not possible at all in the new future. It might take 2-3 draws every 2 weeks to correct the cut-off to around 450 again which means end of 2015 or jan 2016. And then new PNP will open up in 2016 which will drive scores up again.

I dnt see it going below 450 until CIC draws at least 2000 per draw and draw every alternate week regularly.
 
Oprah-You-Get-a-Car.jpg
 
Intezaar said:
Not sure how good this is though. Every 3 weeks CIC is able to find 1500 people with 480+ scores (as shown by last two draws). So if CIC does not draw in the next 2 weeks, score may stay at 480+. When CIC draws every 2 weeks they are able to get 1500 people with 450+ score (as shown by last couple of months).

And don't forget last 2 draws were 480 + after a gap of 3 weeks each which means a huge pool would have grown between 450 and 480 itself. At best if a draw happens in 2 weeks, people between 450 and 480 would have waited for 2 months. How much will the pool have swelled in 8 weeks? How much do you think the score will fall? Below 450, not possible at all in the new future. It might take 2-3 draws every 2 weeks to correct the cut-off to around 450 again which means end of 2015 or jan 2016. And then new PNP will open up in 2016 which will drive scores up again.

I dnt see it going below 450 until CIC draws at least 2000 per draw and draw every alternate week regularly.
Click to expand...

I understand what you're saying and it makes sense. Having entered the draw on 2 Oct and now on a score of 466, if that happens I will have waited 3 months in the EE pool (although I know some have waited a lot longer).
 
Sitting at 454 since about one month. After increasing it from 424.

I thought, i will get ITA directly from first invitation after reaching this score. Especially that the previous two draws had a cutoff of 450.

Now, I have no idea when i will get it...probably next year...
 
Not sure why we still have this kind of speculative (at times, improbable) threads, but this meme did make me laugh.

mf4361 said:
Oprah-You-Get-a-Car.jpg
Click to expand...
 
according to me the only reason CIC is able to release cut off more than 450 is due to applicants who have either have PNP or are already in Canada...
Infact, it is a good that even with PNP they are not able to manage cut off more than 600 and they have to drop to 450 + to invite 1500+ people.

within next 2-3 weeks i hope it would fall down considerably..

My CRS is 395... will be retaking IELTS in January.

Best of luck frnds :) :) :)
 
i strongly feel that if the draw happens this 27 , just 14 days after previous draw the scores will be around

if the draw happens on

21st draw 27th nov 430-440 , 22nd draw 12th December 420-440 ,23rd draw 26th December 390-420

if it delays then the score will be

21st draw on 2nd December 450-460

21st draw on 12th December 470-480
 
royalking said:
i strongly feel that if the draw happens this 27 , just 14 days after previous draw the scores will be around

if the draw happens on

21st draw 27th nov 430-440 , 22nd draw 12th December 420-440 ,23rd draw 26th December 390-420
Click to expand...

Zero chance the scores will drop that much. You obviously haven't looked at CIC's published statistics regarding the number of applicants in each points band.
 
It might drop if CIC will conduct program specific draws as stated in the latest news...
 
scylla said:
Zero chance the scores will drop that much. You obviously haven't looked at CIC's published statistics regarding the number of applicants in each points band.
Click to expand...

I second this. Agreed. It is extremely unlikely for the scores to go below 450 in the near future and 430/420 ever. But this is only my opinion.
 
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