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A CIC spokesperson is quoted here as saying scores will go down overtime and the last 2 high draws were because of PNPs and LMIAs. However, the 450 mark is not mentioned.

If CIC comes out with an annual report on EE, it might make things clearly. Personally I expect the 450 mark will be breached in a few months, ceteris paribus.
 
Neel0526 said:
It might drop if CIC will conduct program specific draws as stated in the latest news...

Could anyone provide a link to the mentioned news? I'm curious to read about that.
 
Kirkoven said:
Sitting at 454 since about one month. After increasing it from 424.

I thought, i will get ITA directly from first invitation after reaching this score. Especially that the previous two draws had a cutoff of 450.

Now, I have no idea when i will get it...probably next year...

If I may ask Kirkoven, how did you increase your CRS points? Did you re-take IELTS test or something else?

Thanks,
Roberta
 
Hey gus!!!
Here is something new from CIC spokes person..Check it out below:
CIC spokesperson says CRS points requirement likely to go down over time

At the 23rd Annual Immigration Law Summit held earlier this month in Toronto, Ontario, a spokesperson for Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) made some notable comments about the past, present, and future of draws made from the Express Entry pool. The main takeaway, however, is that the CRS point requirement for Express Entry draws is likely to go down.

Foremost among the forecasts made by CIC is that the total intake of economic immigrants to Canada through Express Entry is set to increase once the backlog of applications from 2014 has been cleared. This was first disclosed in a mid-year CIC report that was released in August, and was reiterated this month at the Immigration Law Summit.

In addition, the spokesperson said that the first few Express Entry draws had a relatively high CRS point requirement because of pent-up demand from candidates who already had job offers supported by a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA). These candidates benefited from a 600-point bonus under the CRS and received an Invitation to Apply (ITA) in one of the earlier draws. This information is backed by the mid-year CIC report, which disclosed that most early recipients of an ITA were already working in Canada on LMIA-supported work permits.

Once the bulk of those candidates had received ITAs, the minimum CRS point requirement in order to receive an ITA dipped sharply to 453 by the end of March, and 450 by the 17th and 18th draws, which were held on September 18and October 2, respectively. With the exception of one draw in May, each draw since February has seen a portion of candidates without a job offer or provincial nomination certificate receive ITAs.

More recently, however, the CRS points requirement has increased. The CIC spokesperson stated that this is largely due to the fact that many provinces did not open their Express Entry Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) streams, through which successful candidates may obtain an additional 600 CRS points, until months after the system was launched. As a result, there has been a rush of PNP certificates being issued to proactive candidates in the Express Entry pool. This has had the effect of increasing the number of candidates who have received an additional 600 CRS points.

With both an LMIA rush and a PNP rush out of the way — together with the 2014 backlog being cleared and CIC having previously stated that “Express Entry will become the main source of applications to meet annual immigration levels targets” — CIC has said that it expects the CRS requirement for Express Entry draws to drop over time.
 
Sounds good! Let's hope it will drop down under 450!! I currently have 406 and looking into ways to increase the overall score... :'(
 
RobertaP said:
Sounds good! Let's hope it will drop down under 450!! I currently have 406 and looking into ways to increase the overall score... :'(
The worst thing is nothing else to increase your chances except your work experience and language results improvement...
 
I performed liner regression on the available data. To keep it simple I did not standardize for the time between two draws.
Assumptions:
1> The population is normally distributed which was evident from the August CIC report.
2> There are 1500 ITA every time
Results:
1> Draw 21 would remain very close to the 480 mark
2> There would be a significant decrease between draw 22 to 26 (about 450 - 460)
3> Draw 27 would have a spike and go higher about 480 - 490
4> Draw 28 to 31 would go about 450 and possible below
5> Draw 32 to 38 would remain about 460
Limitations:
1> Changes in the time interval between two draws could be a game changer
2> Changes in number of ITA every time
3> PNP and LMIA could be significant confounder if provinces changed their regulations

*At present few provinces has stopped accepting PNP applications, when they will reopen the PNP would start and might further increase the points required to get ITA.

PS: my score is 449, missed twice by 1 point in October. CLB: L-10, R-10, W-8, S-8. Planning to repeat the English exam again hoping to improve in W and S. Thank you. I apologize for any mistake it is my first time writing something on internet.
 
Good job dr_jaat! Not the best speculations for us below 450 but nonetheless, very useful!

Roberta
 
Yea, I am also below 450. I just wrote what I could guess from the data. We can not push the data to go below 450, LOL

Hoping for the best and lets see where it takes us
 
I agree it has no chances sooner to go below 450 but according to CIC spokes person creates hope and chances to get nominated ....
Hope for the best!!
Good luck....
 
RobertaP said:
If I may ask Kirkoven, how did you increase your CRS points? Did you re-take IELTS test or something else?

Thanks,
Roberta

Hi Roberta,

I just added my wife's IELTS results (12 points) and my TEF results (18 points) after getting the same.
 
Kirkoven said:
Hi Roberta,

I just added my wife's IELTS results (12 points) and my TEF results (18 points) after getting the same.

No miracle here either.. Waiting for my husbands IELTS results.. I'm at 406 right now. You should be receiving an ITA on Friday according to this topic! ;)
 
I hope so but I actually doubt that the minimum CRS score will drop from 484 down to 454 in one round. This going to take some time.

Did You get Ontario invitation?

Many people withdrawn their profiles and submit again and they were given invitations from ontario. This will increase your chances tremendously.

I also got invitation for Ontario. My package was received by them almost one month ago but no AOR till date.
 
No, I'm not eligible for the nomination, I don't have the bachelor's degree yet.. Anyhow, good luck to you!
 
I think cut off CRS will not be going under 450 before June-2016. It may stay below 450 for few draws but then again will increase when the PNP's going to add more people having 600 additional points. Very frustrating for me as my score is in between 414-419. Just waiting for some lucky charm !! who knows...... :D