20th Draw - Realistic expectations?

[heeru_maan]

I think what people are failing to take into account is the fact that each province only has a specific number of nominations they can give out for Express Entry applicants.
Since it is November, we can assume that a lot of provinces have already issued a considerable amount of (if not all) nominations from their quotas and those nominees have already received their ITA.

The only ways the scores can go as high as the 900 ball park for the 20th draw are if one or more conditions are true:
1. The approximate number of provincial nominees since the 19th draw is over 1000. - I do not think this is possible for reasons stated above.
2. For some reason, the number of applicants with an LMIA approved job offer significantly increases from the norm. - Again, it is common knowledge that LMIAs are not easy to get. So, extremely unlikely that they would (a) have gotten their LMIAs approved at the same time and/or (b) have decided to apply at the same time.
3. CIC decides to invite significantly less than their usual 1000 - 1500 applicants in the 20th draw. - Possible, but it was common in the early draws when the backlog was huge.

 

[bestofluck]

Even if all 150 people had scores of 650, the average would move to 650, not 900+...

How can you get 650? that's the point. either you get 500 max or you get more than 800. 650 is rare . only if you have 50 points plus 600 of those PNP or LMIA. Assuming people with 250 or 300 points would have opted for PNPs it is 900 with PNp scores. Outsiders don't get 650. so 489 or 850+//is nothing beyond logic.

please explain me how can you get 650?

 

[cyronn]

Fact is no one knows what the scores will be. We can all speculate, which is what we all do, but it doesn't have to be unrealistic. Is there a possibility that a draw will be too high because of only PNs or LMIAs? Sure, why not. The earlier draws were very high maybe because of this. But what is the probability that NOW CIC will suddenly get so many PN or LMIA applications between draws that they would keep the score above 500 or 600? - Way too low. Its not impossible, but it is improbable. There is no reason to scare or depress anyone, esp. new comers to this forum, into thinking that there is no hope. Lets wait for the next draw and hope everyone gets an ITA soon.

 

[bestofluck]

Fact is no one knows what the scores will be. We can all speculate, which is what we all do, but it doesn't have to be unrealistic. Is there a possibility that a draw will be too high because of only PNs or LMIAs? Sure, why not. The earlier draws were very high maybe because of this. But what is the probability that NOW CIC will suddenly get so many PN or LMIA applications between draws that they would keep the score above 500 or 600? - Way too low. Its not impossible, but it is improbable. There is no reason to scare or depress anyone, esp. new comers to this forum, into thinking that there is no hope. Lets wait for the next draw and hope everyone gets an ITA soon.

very true. wait for today. its now 1 hour late because timings have changed. see a Draw a bit late.

 

[Jad77]

If the draw happens today a realistic expectation would be a cutoff of 470 or so. (With the usual 1500 invitations).
+900 seems very inrealistic because it means Ontario has issued more than 1500 PNP in two weeks (even though it started in June with a plan of an overall 2700 PNP to offer).
in last draw, there was a huge block of PNPs (+3 weeks between the draws that's why it reached 489), but probably not this time.
My assumption a today draw between 460 and 480 points.
Wait and see.

 

[bestofluck]

If the draw happens today a realistic expectation would be a cutoff of 470 or so. (With the usual 1500 invitations).
+900 seems very inrealistic because it means Ontario has issued more than 1500 PNP in two weeks (even though it started in June with a plan of an overall 2700 PNP to offer).
in last draw, there was a huge block of PNPs (+3 weeks between the draws that's why it reached 489), but probably not this time.
My assumption a today draw between 460 and 480 points.
Wait and see.

yes i said 900 because Ontario started giving invites in September and by now most of them are processed. So it might happen there are mostly all with 6000 points. may be some without it if it happens today. But if the draw dostnt happen today. No one is sure because they dont have any pattern of making draws.

 

[Jad77]

yes i said 900 because Ontario started giving invites in September and by now most of them are processed. So it might happen there are mostly all with 6000 points. may be some without it if it happens today. But if the draw dostnt happen today. No one is sure because they dont have any pattern of making draws.

Ok so if today. 470 or so, within the range {465 to 475}, for example?

 

[prernarula]

being optimistic and waiting for a draw to happen today...i hope the chances of the draw today are strong and even i was expecting the score between 460 & 480 in the 20th draw as nominations have been given out but a lot of them were given between the last 2 draws hence the score went up to 489 and they don't normally dip by a huge number when they are already below the 500 mark.....

all the best to everyone waiting for the 20th draw!!!

 

[aarchiebhatia111]

no draw yet....waiting

 

[Kirkoven]

Hi Everybody

A quick one.

At what time, usually, the invitations or the ministerial instruction are sent?

 

[Incredibles]

When does a draw usually take place? I mean when do we get to see the ministerial instructions on the cic page?

 

[aarchiebhatia111]

Generally around UTC 12 - 12:30

 

[Banff2015]

Guys it's only 8am in Ottawa now chill the day has not even began here yet.. It was 2pm Ottawa time when I got my ITA so still plenty time yet

 

[Kirkoven]

Thanks guys

 

[nonnemacher]

10:23 AM here and nothing yet

376 and waiting (maybe another 6 months ~ 1 year)