20th Draw - A Big One

[Roopakv]

I am not sure if this is gonna happen... but i am sure the scores are never gonna come down below 450... i totally gave up hopes for sure...

 

[tortmaster]

I am not sure if this is gonna happen... but i am sure the scores are never gonna come down below 450... i totally gave up hopes for sure...

I think "never" is going a bit far. Lets keep the hope!

 

[redfox05]

I think "never" is going a bit far. Lets keep the hope!

Agreed, below 450 might be hard, right now, but don't lose hope. For all those below 450, its a new system not even a year old. The only reason we are thinking it wont go below 450 is because it hasn't yet at all. Doesn't mean it won't.

But what it does mean is that you should explore other options, and prepare backup plans. Hope is fine, but always have a 2nd plan. Don't just hope and wait and do nothing. Always have something to fall back on. Something else to give you hope and look forward to. Or, start a detailed thread explaining exactly how your points got to where you are now, and then maybe a forum member can advise on how to try to improve those points.

 

[sameer_mobin]

Agreed, below 450 might be hard, right now, but don't lose hope. For all those below 450, its a new system not even a year old. The only reason we are thinking it wont go below 450 is because it hasn't yet at all. Doesn't mean it won't.

But what it does mean is that you should explore other options, and prepare backup plans. Hope is fine, but always have a 2nd plan. Don't just hope and wait and do nothing. Always have something to fall back on. Something else to give you hope and look forward to. Or, start a detailed thread explaining exactly how your points got to where you are now, and then maybe a forum member can advise on how to try to improve those points.

Totally agree!

I know that we all, inlcuding you, are speculating.

What do you think of scor 440? I have 440 CRS. You think the scores gonna come down ever to atleast this level?

 

[RKCK]

Other than Ontario, have any other province/territory released nominations recently? If yes then the cutoff scores may be high.

 

[Aragorn165]

I think only OINP has issued nominations recently, and even those don't seem to be too high in number since the last draw. My point is, there is every chance for cutoffs to fall back to 450 again, especially since the current number of ITAs issued are not meeting EE targets. Just hold on, guys, don't lose hope now

 

[redfox05]

I think only OINP has issued nominations recently, and even those don't seem to be too high in number since the last draw. My point is, there is every chance for cutoffs to fall back to 450 again, especially since the current number of ITAs issued are not meeting EE targets. Just hold on, guys, don't lose hope now

This is just a guess from me, and yes, we shouldn't really encourage guessing, but as long as we call it out as such.

But seeing as it went to 489, this suggests that there were a number of applications in there that were not PNP, as anything PNP would be over 600. So, yes, I agree, there did not seem to be that many in the last draw. So what would that mean, continued trend of "not that many PNP" in the next draw or would we see a big influx of PNP in the next round which were not quite ready to go into the last one?

 

[redfox05]

Totally agree!

I know that we all, inlcuding you, are speculating.

What do you think of scor 440? I have 440 CRS. You think the scores gonna come down ever to atleast this level?

My message didn't mention anything about speculating I said, don't lose hope 8) But yes in another thread I mentioned we need to be cautious of speculations. Having said that, conversation naturally goes to speculating as we get bored of waiting, but as long as we call it out as that, rather than statements of fact, then its all good (ish).

As for your score, 440, thats quite close to the lowest of 450 that EE has hit in the past, but EE has not "yet" gone that low, so based on the fact that it hasn't gone there YET, I would still tread with caution and try to bring the score up or keep in mind alternative programs/options just in case. Is there anything in your score that is open to improvement?

 

[Aragorn165]

This is just a guess from me, and yes, we shouldn't really encourage guessing, but as long as we call it out as such.

But seeing as it went to 489, this suggests that there were a number of applications in there that were not PNP, as anything PNP would be over 600. So, yes, I agree, there did not seem to be that many in the last draw. So what would that mean, continued trend of "not that many PNP" in the next draw or would we see a big influx of PNP in the next round which were not quite ready to go into the last one?

I think the biggest problem we have right now is that we are all treading new ground- since this is the first year for the new Express Entry and Provincial Nomination Programs, we don't actually know the timeline for nominations, or any generalized trends from the past to base current predictions on.
I suppose it will depend on when the new draw is. If it is this Friday, then there is not enough time for any province to send out too many nominations to drive up EE cutoffs. If it is not this Friday, but is, say, the 20th, then that leaves us with 14 working days for provinces to send out their nominations in the interim- more than enough time for a flood of new nominations to drive up cutoff scores, if that does happen.
Basically, then, I think it all depends on when the next draw is, and whether or not the provinces send out Nominations in that period (I know at least one province, I think Saskatoon, though I may be wrong on that, simply cannot send out invites, as they have exhausted their allotted quota for this year, while on the other hand, it seems as though OINP is planning on sending out a lot of nominations this week- they alternate between AoRs issued and nominations sent weekly. Last week was AoRs issued, and this week, they have started out by sending out nominations, so this week is probably a nomination week).
Take that as you will- of course, this is all guessing based on highly generalized macro trends, so it might not mean anything, but it gives us something to work with, I suppose!

 

[redfox05]

I think the biggest problem we have right now is that we are all treading new ground- since this is the first year for the new Express Entry and Provincial Nomination Programs, we don't actually know the timeline for nominations, or any generalized trends from the past to base current predictions on.
I suppose it will depend on when the new draw is. If it is this Friday, then there is not enough time for any province to send out too many nominations to drive up EE cutoffs. If it is not this Friday, but is, say, the 20th, then that leaves us with 14 working days for provinces to send out their nominations in the interim- more than enough time for a flood of new nominations to drive up cutoff scores, if that does happen.
Basically, then, I think it all depends on when the next draw is, and whether or not the provinces send out Nominations in that period (I know at least one province, I think Saskatoon, though I may be wrong on that, simply cannot send out invites, as they have exhausted their allotted quota for this year, while on the other hand, it seems as though OINP is planning on sending out a lot of nominations this week- they alternate between AoRs issued and nominations sent weekly. Last week was AoRs issued, and this week, they have started out by sending out nominations, so this week is probably a nomination week).
Take that as you will- of course, this is all guessing based on highly generalized macro trends, so it might not mean anything, but it gives us something to work with, I suppose!

I agree, well explained 'guess' and I'll add to that with my thought that CIC has yet to break the 2 draws a month trend, with one around the beginning and another at the end of the month, so im going to go ahead and hope for something this week, and someone else 'guessed' that most draws happen on fridays, so why not this friday.

But! Don't bank on it, if not, we can all wait together and see when it does draw. I don't intent to worry myself until maybe around the 15th if no draw has been done yet. Even then its still out of our hands. I know I've done all I can, so I just have to join the wait.

 

[redfox05]

Oh, and totally off-topic, I'm going to be going to Vancouver on holiday this christmas, so if anyone is over there and wants to meet for a coffee, give me a shout. Lets all support each other through this journey

 

[Aragorn165]

I agree, well explained 'guess' and I'll add to that with my thought that CIC has yet to break the 2 draws a month trend, with one around the beginning and another at the end of the month, so im going to go ahead and hope for something this week, and someone else 'guessed' that most draws happen on fridays, so why not this friday.

But! Don't bank on it, if not, we can all wait together and see when it does draw. I don't intent to worry myself until maybe around the 15th if no draw has been done yet. Even then its still out of our hands. I know I've done all I can, so I just have to join the wait.

Yes, guessing is all we can do And like you said, it is out of our hands now, we've done what we can.
HOWEVER, I do want to address the point about there being a draw this Friday, in that I don't think there will be one this week. Let me explain- not only was there a draw last week (meaning this would be two consecutive weeks of draws, and not only is that unfeasible logistically, but it statistically undermines the point of having multiple draws spread out over the year in the first place), but also, the new government gets sworn in this Thursday, meaning we are looking at a lot of staffing changes and stuff- I really highly doubt that a new draw will happen in the thick of all that.
Have fun in Vancouver!

 

[sameer_mobin]

My message didn't mention anything about speculating I said, don't lose hope 8) But yes in another thread I mentioned we need to be cautious of speculations. Having said that, conversation naturally goes to speculating as we get bored of waiting, but as long as we call it out as that, rather than statements of fact, then its all good (ish).

As for your score, 440, thats quite close to the lowest of 450 that EE has hit in the past, but EE has not "yet" gone that low, so based on the fact that it hasn't gone there YET, I would still tread with caution and try to bring the score up or keep in mind alternative programs/options just in case. Is there anything in your score that is open to improvement?

Nope! All done,Except that next year my score will increas to 465 after completing 3 yrs of experience as I'll be getting 25 extra on adaptability.

Lets see man! as already said, its out of our hands now!

 

[tonero]

Im Standing at 499 What are my chances? Also i really want to change my job because although its full time im paid as an independent contractor. And the position has no term so its indefinite clearly says so in my employment contract.

What happens if and when i change my job and say i get invited to apply? Also what will happen if i stay at the same position given the circumstances? Do i just need my employment letter to prove my income? I have no LMIA btw so i have no arranged employment.

 

[Aragorn165]

Im Standing at 499 What are my chances? Also i really want to change my job because although its full time im paid as an independent contractor. And the position has no term so its indefinite clearly says so in my employment contract.

What happens if and when i change my job and say i get invited to apply? Also what will happen if i stay at the same position given the circumstances? Do i just need my employment letter to prove my income? I have no LMIA btw so i have no arranged employment.

You are almost certainly getting an invite on the next draw. Like 99%.
You can change your job right now (assuming you are in the FSWP stream), and there's nothing wrong with that, though that may lead to a change in NOC, and correspondingly, in your CRS overall. There is no harm in applying with a job where you are an independent contractor- I had something similar I applied with, and at a provincial level at the very least, I ran into no problems