20th Draw - A Big One

[pziegler1986]

I would be astounded if the ITA threshold dips below 450 at any point for the remainder of the year.

 

[mead]

I would be astounded if the ITA threshold dips below 450 at any point for the remainder of the year.

agreed remainder of the year or till Chris Alexander is still acting Immigration minister. 450 seems to be a cut off they dont want to go below it but anything is possible so keep up the hope.

 

[bestofluck]

Exactly, but now there is a pattern,
the last draw, was a three week draw with apparently a load of PNP from Ontario (a huge block),
Ontario had 2700 PNP to offer since June, now they are ending, so no more +600points to add for applicants,

without Ontario PNp, there is more or less 70 applicants entering the pool per day who have a score of +450.

if we take the assumption of "bestofluck" = a draw for this next friday >> within the range 450 to 489 (last draw), they are probably 500 to 700 applicants (more or less) + 70 applicants per day (or so) + no more or very little Ontario PNP, we can witness a decrease of the cutoff to 448 or even to 445 !!! (With the usual 1500 ITAs)...
This assumption is a real possiblility.

and if the draw happens, on the 6th of November, with no PNP to offer from Ontario, we can see a cutoff back to 460 or 470...

All depends on how much PNP had got ITAs on the last draw, and how much PNP they'll offer until the next draw >>>

My assumption is that next draw will occur on the 6th of November, so that they'll not lower the cutoff too quickly...

I agree with you. Truely logical. My only hope is Chris making the last Draw which he should.

 

[bestofluck]

@Jad

Explain me one thing. I am unable to understand as I am new to all these calculations.

How come score 489 includes people who got OOPNP. I mean their score would be in 1000s by now right?

What I am nt getting is that how 489 tells us that there are people in this who fot PNPs.

Please do explain to me. Thanks.

All those who get 600 additional points through PNP are included . Most of the applicants were over 1000 crs points and only a few with 489. If they invite 1500 applicants there must be 1400 with over 1000 points and so remaining few must be 489 and plus.

 

[bestofluck]

How many applicants you all think would be there with 489 and above scoring from 600 or 520. Very few.

The non Canada FSW carries highest of 520 marks and I dont think applicants with 489 withing a span of 21 days would be more than say 50. And the remaining CEC would be say 200. So rest all must be with PNP getting 600 points. (1250)

Now remember Ontario started giving PT in July saying they would take 3 months to give 600 points, So this was the time when most of the applicants got their 600 points whop all got PT in July and August.

Imagine they gave 2000 PT till now from which some are consumed in previous draws and the remaining in the 19th draw say 1250. Now no more Ontario remains looking to this logic. Only other PNPs will be included now which cannot be a high number. So points eventually drops in the next draw.

Even if the draw happens on 6th November the points would be not more than 460. But to me it seems very likely for a draw on 30th October with points again reaching 454.

 

[8Hannah8]

I think another reason why they are comitting to 1500 invitations per draw as it is probably a realistic # of applications to be processes within commited 6 months time-frame. I remember reading somewhere that CIC had pretty large staff cuts.

 

[bestofluck]

I think another reason why they are comitting to 1500 invitations per draw as it is probably a realistic # of applications to be processes within commited 6 months time-frame. I remember reading somewhere that CIC had pretty large staff cuts.

1500 is restricted only because there is a back log of old FSW applicants. Once they back log is cleared they might increase the invites , may be they double them. 2016 is very hopeful for people between 400 and 450

 

[Jad77]

All those who get 600 additional points through PNP are included . Most of the applicants were over 1000 crs points and only a few with 489. If they invite 1500 applicants there must be 1400 with over 1000 points and so remaining few must be 489 and plus.

Yes exactly BestofLuck, but my assumption about the figures is this one:

for last draw:

1000 applicants over +1000points, had been taken in the last draw,*
500 applicants in the range [489 to 1000pt], had been taken in the last draw, (including few +900 points : 300 regular CRS + 600 PNP extra points)...
700 remaining applicants in the range [450 to 489 pt],

*this also means that number of applicants in the range [400 to 450] is decreasing or staying steady, which means it would be easier to see the cutoff going down more quickly when it reaches 450 points...

- my prediction: Next draw, on the 6th of November, with a cutoff back to 460 or so.

Wait and see.

 

[bestofluck]

Yes exactly BestofLuck, but my assumption about the figures is this one:

for last draw:

1000 applicants over +1000points, had been taken in the last draw,*
500 applicants in the range [489 to 1000pt], had been taken in the last draw, (including few +900 points : 300 regular CRS + 600 PNP extra points)...
700 remaining applicants in the range [450 to 489 pt],

*this also means that number of applicants in the range [400 to 450] is decreasing or staying steady, which means it would be easier to see the cutoff going down more quickly when it reaches 450 points...


- my prediction: Next draw, on the 6th of November, with a cutoff back to 460 or so.

Wait and see.

Quite true. Hope there is neck to neck draw either this time or may be next month but two such consecutive draws are required to reach back 450

 

[CPRaspirant]

We cannot assume that most of Ontariao PNP are over , as people are getting PT notifications even in October .

Ontario started giving PT notifications in July then people will get Nominations not before oct as they get 45 days to file their application also . which means first lot of people who have got Nominations from Ontario would have received ITA in 19th draw . looking at this logic i dont think score is going to come down before 2016.

 

[bestofluck]

I would be astounded if the ITA threshold dips below 450 at any point for the remainder of the year.

just because it went to 489? if it would have gone to 444 u would say that u expect it to go to 420 by the end of this year.

 

[bestofluck]

Guys ready for a Draw today? Chris would be working hard to complete his pending work. Let us expect a Draw today.


IF the Draw happens today the scores might go down to 454 ...or else its easy to guess it would be 470 on 6th November

 

[bestofluck]

The Big things don't happen. There was no draw on 30th. Now what will happen if there is no draw on 6th Nov.? The scores would be 900 +

 

[mrwait]

The Big things don't happen. There was no draw on 30th. Now what will happen if there is no draw on 6th Nov.? The scores would be 900 +

CIC is not smart enough....all LMIAs get invitation....so sad and frustrating looking at this all the time....they just dont want to drop down the score for some reason..may be LMIA will draw them money who knows..otherwise no reason for this....most people above 400 are ideal candidates...but unfortunate

 

[impulseoceanic]

The Big things don't happen. There was no draw on 30th. Now what will happen if there is no draw on 6th Nov.? The scores would be 900 +

bhai itna speculation se btr hai...do smethng positive n productive..if its 900 plus than what are you doing on this forum..focus on thngs u have on ur hands ....dnt spread negativity ....have patience dud !