19th Draw ?

[CADparity]

That is indeed the overall immigration target but of that only about 60k would be ITAs through EE under various programs. 60k ITAs could well be close to 120k or more economic class immigrants.

Based on the current numbers, the ratio of issued visas to approved applications is about 1.3 (as per the mid-year EE report). So if they stick to inviting only 450+ scores, this means about 36K ITAs per year, which would result in about 47K visas a year. And this is if we assume that all ITAs result in approvals, which we know they don't. By mid-year they had issued only 844 visas on 12K+ ITAs.
So if they want to get 50-60K visas through EE, they need to increase the ITAs per month at some point. I'm not saying this will happen this year. But they stated that the majority of these 200K+ visas a year were planned to go through EE, and I don't see 100K+ visas a year happening without at least doubling the ITAs, whenever that is (next year or later).

 

[Asivad Anac]

Asivad Anac could you explain please?

This is what I meant. Remember that the mid-year report was very premature and not really reflective of how CIC would normally process applicants under EE.

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.

 

[bloomy]

^To add to my previous post, all these figures are assuming that ALL ITAs result in PR, which we know from official stats is not the case. Many are rejected and it's also clear from the mid-year figures that even those granted PR are a fraction of all invited. As per the figures, out of 12,000+ invited at mid year, only about 7,500 had applied, and out of these, only about 600 people were approved. It seems there is a bottleneck in the system, and they will either need to get more people to work on apps, improve their processes, or restrict ITAs until they are able to speed things up so that all applicants can get a response within 6 months. It seems that currently they have chosen the latter option - restrict ITAs for the time being.

I have tried to explain before. Probably there are lots of fake profiles available on the system and without occupation quota as previous system. This bottleneck will not be solved…
Could you imagine that Canada needs lots of different type of professionals but only they are sending the ITA to the guys who have highest score only? For example, they need mechanical engineers but all mechanical engineers in the system have 400 or below score so what will be..?
Do you think this is logical for Canada.

 

[shashidhar_sm]

This is what I meant. Remember that the mid-year report was very premature and not really reflective of how CIC would normally process applicants under EE.

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.

So, in a nutshell, the chances of the cut-off going below 450s are pretty remote. Right?

 

[Asivad Anac]

I have tried to explain before. Probably there are lots of fake profiles available on the system and without occupation quota as previous system. This bottleneck will not be solved…
Could you imagine that Canada needs lots of different type of professionals but only they are sending the ITA to the guys who have highest score only? For example, they need mechanical engineers but all mechanical engineers in the system have 400 or below score so what will be..?
Do you think this is logical for Canada.

It isn't logical to assume that all 'wanted' professionals have a score below 400.

 

[Asivad Anac]

So, in a nutshell, the chances of the cut-off going below 450s are pretty remote. Right?

Give or take 1 to 2%. There should be a sub-450 draw sometime before March '16. But even that is unlikely to bring the cutoff below 440.

 

[Jad77]

Give or take 1 to 2%. There should be a sub-450 draw sometime before March '16. But even that is unlikely to bring the cutoff below 440.

Thank you Asivad Anac, it's very well explained,
Although, I don't agree on 2 points based on your assumption:

-a) In your point 5, You said " by dividing those numbers optimistically by 2", I think that realistically those number should be divided by 1.6 or 1.8, because in your assumption is like you said 1/3 of the accepted applicants are single 1/3 married without child, and about 1/3 married with 1 child, but in fact I think there is far more single applicants (without dependent) at least 40%, and not many applicants with children, because young (less than 29 years old, usually are not married) win more points under the system, and young married applicants would MAYBE lose points if there spouses have less qualification (with no or under graduate degree or weaker in official language), and usually applicant with more than one child are not under 30 (therefore losing many points). So, my point is that young educated SINGLES have higher probability to have a score above +450 and be selected.
(Therefore, In your point 7, You should have said, these numbers could be smaller, OR HIGHER, depending on the average applicant family size, OR NO FAMILY AT ALL).

-b) In your point 9, you said : "That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE". But in fact, today they are giving 1500 ITAs including PNP under EE, and let's assume that there is an average of 150 ITA (or even more) in each draw through PNP. Eventually, they should add those 150 to the roughly 1500 to reach your assumption.

So If I sum points a) + b) in my assumption CIC should start to offer about 2000 ITAs each draw to meet its targets.
In short, CIC has to bring the cutoff below 440, probably before March 2016... And even below 420, specialy if there are less applicants entering the pool with a high CRS... And the backlog fixed up (hence, your point 2)... ...and that are the big enigmas...

 

[kateg]

Give or take 1 to 2%. There should be a sub-450 draw sometime before March '16. But even that is unlikely to bring the cutoff below 440.

A reasonable assessment. We'll get to see if 450 is a hard limit or not. Something will have to give when the backlog goes down - more LMIAs, lower targets (unlikely), or reduced scores.

 

[Asivad Anac]

Thank you Asivad Anac, it's very well explained,
Although, I don't agree on 2 points based on your assumption:

-a) In your point 5, You said " by dividing those numbers optimistically by 2", I think that realistically those number should be divided by 1.6 or 1.8, because in your assumption is like you said 1/3 of the applicants are single 1/3 married without child, and about 1/3 married with 1 child, but in fact I think there is far more single applicants (without dependent) at least 40%, and not many applicants with children, because young (so not married) win more points under the systems, and young married applicants would MAYBE lose points if there spouses have less qualification (no or under graduate degree or weaker in official language), so my point, is that singles have higher chance to have a score above +450,
(Therefore, In your point 7, You should have said, these numbers could be smaller, OR HIGHER, depending on the average applicant family size, OR NO FAMILY AT ALL).

-b) In your point 9, you said : "That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE". But in fact, today they are giving 1500 ITAs including PNP under EE, and let's assume that there is an average of 150 ITA (or even more) in each draw through PNP. Eventually, they should add those 150 to the roughly 1500 to reach your assumption.

So If I sum points a) + b) in my assumption CIC should start to offer about 2000 ITAs each draw to meet its targets.
In short, CIC has to bring the cutoff below 440, probably before March 2016... And even below 420, specialy if there are less applicants entering the pool with a high CRS... And the backlog fixed up (hence, your point 2)... ...and that are the big enigmas...

Those are all assumptions and your guess is as good as mine. Even if I go with the 2000 ITAs per draw number and assume that the draws are evenly separated to ensure that the pool fills up to its stead state equilibrium (estimated and likely to be 50% below 400, 40% below 449 and 10% above 450), one can observe that even with a pool size of 20000 applicants, the fall below 450 wouldn't be drastic because the draws are evenly separated and the pool will always stay at equilibrium. Every time there was a back-to-back draw for 2 weeks in succession, the score fell close to 450 (at 1500 ITA levels) because the pool did not have time to reach steady state equilibrium.

The ONLY time there can be a drastic drop in points below 450 (a drop of even 10 points below 450 is drastic because there are MORE people per point in that space than above 450) will be if there are back-to-back draws for 3 weeks in succession or longer. It hasn't happened so far because CIC is keeping it tight.

 

[Jad77]

Those are all assumptions and your guess is as good as mine. Even if I go with the 2000 ITAs per draw number and assume that the draws are evenly separated to ensure that the pool fills up to its stead state equilibrium (estimated and likely to be 50% below 400, 40% below 449 and 10% above 450), one can observe that even with a pool size of 20000 applicants, the fall below 450 wouldn't be drastic because the draws are evenly separated and the pool will always stay at equilibrium. Every time there was a back-to-back draw for 2 weeks in succession, the score fell close to 450 (at 1500 ITA levels) because the pool did not have time to reach steady state equilibrium.

The ONLY time there can be a drastic drop in points below 450 (a drop of even 10 points below 450 is drastic because there are MORE people per point in that space than above 450) will be if there are back-to-back draws for 3 weeks in succession or longer. It hasn't happened so far because CIC is keeping it tight.

Again I don't agree with your assumption, specialy about two figures : 20000 and 10% above 450, in fact because no one knows, unless we get the annual report to have some enlightening...
Today, the drop in points could happen slightly each month and see the cutoff under 440 by the end of this year or January 2016...
My estimation is that there is today only between 1500 and 2000 applicants in the range {440 to 449 points}, and CIC should start to selecting them, specialy if Ontario PNP program stops...

 

[mead]

hope harper gets kicked out and we get new government which will make changes to EE

 

[Asivad Anac]

Again I don't agree with your assumption, specialy about two figures : 20000 and 10% above 450, in fact because no one knows, unless we get the annual report to have some enlightening...
Today, the drop in points could happen slightly each month and see the cutoff under 440 by the end of this year or January 2016...
My estimation is that there is today only between 1500 and 2000 applicants in the range {440 to 449 points}, and CIC should start to selecting them, specialy if Ontario PNP program stops...

20000 is clearly on the lower side of things. The mid year report gave a figure of 41000 eligible profiles in the pool as on that date in July. And that was just the beginning of EE. The 10% number is more debatable. I got that by some excel jugglery at my end taking into account close to 300 different possibilities of applicant profiles (and making some simplifying assumptions along the way) which included single/married, 1/2 years of CWE, Bachelors/Masters/2 or more, 1/3 years of FWE, 25-29 age group/higher and language scores of CLB 7-9/9. All of these together are the contributors to applicant scores and when I tabulated them and ran an analysis on the frequency distribution from that limited sample, it came out to be 37%, 40% and 23%. I downgraded the 23% to nearly 10% because the language skills are the least likely to be normally distributed across this population sample. Less than 5% candidates score CLB 9 and higher on the IELTS globally. That is a super-massive skew on the data and I rationalized that the least I could do was pull down the distribution of 450+ scores down by 100% to compensate for this in my model because the CLB 9 scorers are likely to be disproportionately underrepresented in the below 450 range.

If you want to keep it to 40/40/20 split for the score ranges and the number of applicants as 30,000, that would leave us with 6000 applicants in the pool under steady state at any given point. That would actually leave people with CRS of below 450 LESSER chance than my earlier analysis where I was being more generous with my assumptions.

 

[Jad77]

20000 is clearly on the lower side of things. The mid year report gave a figure of 41000 eligible profiles in the pool as on that date in July. And that was just the beginning of EE. The 10% number is more debatable. I got that by some excel jugglery at my end taking into account close to 300 different possibilities of applicant profiles (and making some simplifying assumptions along the way) which included single/married, 1/2 years of CWE, Bachelors/Masters/2 or more, 1/3 years of FWE, 25-29 age group/higher and language scores of CLB 7-9/9. All of these together are the contributors to applicant scores and when I tabulated them and ran an analysis on the frequency distribution from that limited sample, it came out to be 37%, 40% and 23%. I downgraded the 23% to nearly 10% because the language skills are the least likely to be normally distributed across this population sample. Less than 5% candidates score CLB 9 and higher on the IELTS globally. That is a super-massive skew on the data and I rationalized that the least I could do was pull down the distribution of 450+ scores down by 100% to compensate for this in my model because the CLB 9 scorers are likely to be disproportionately underrepresented in the below 450 range.

If you want to keep it to 40/40/20 split for the score ranges and the number of applicants as 30,000, that would leave us with 6000 applicants in the pool under steady state at any given point. That would actually leave people with CRS of below 450 LESSER chance than my earlier analysis where I was being more generous with my assumptions.

Again your statement is false, you said : "6000 applicants in the pool under steady state at any given point",
But your statistics are based on overall data (mi-year report) and don't take on account the draws that take applicants who entred the pool before the lawest cutoff draw.
With your statement the cutoff should never have moved since the miyear report (which is false). As all noticed the average cutoff has been decreasing by 6 points since June. And probably this trend will continue. Each month between 300 and 600 early applicants who haven't registered between the last following draws, are taken.

You took mi-year report as a reference, but not what happened since then !!!
So no wonder if we will see a cutoff reaching 440 by the end of this year...
It depends also on if CIC, will do 7 more draws until the end of the year (or less)... And when Ontario PNP programs stops...

 

[Asivad Anac]

Again your statement is false, you said : "6000 applicants in the pool under steady state at any given point",
But your statistics are based on overall data (mi-year report) and don't take on account the draws that take applicants who entred the pool before the lawest cutoff draw.
With your statement the cutoff should never have moved since the miyear report (which is false). As all noticed the average cutoff has been decreasing by 6 points since June. And probably this trend will continue. Each month between 300 and 600 early applicants who haven't registered between the last following draws, are taken.

You took mi-year report as a reference, but not what happened since then !!!
So no wonder if we will see a cutoff reaching 440 by the end of this year...
It depends also on if CIC, will do 7 more draws until the end of the year (or less)... And when Ontario PNP programs stops...

You are missing the point and delving on areas which are simply assumptions without looking at the bigger picture.

Of course, that 6000 is not the size of the entire pool. I missed the prefix eligible. 6000 is actually 20% of 30k applicants or the tentative number of applicants above 450 at any point in time when the pool is in steady state equilibrium. My calculations are contingent on that steady state of the pool so the number of people exiting and entering is naturally factored into the analysis. As per my calculations, the cutoff would come down whenever there are back to back draws. And we've seen that being true from March.

My analysis also suggests that, in the absence of back to back draws, cutoff won't fall drastically because there are enough applicants available in the pool. This is a widely shared opinion on the forum as well. There should be a sub 450 draw before next March but I don't anticipate the cutoff to fall below 440.

 

[Jad77]

You are missing the point and delving on areas which are simply assumptions without looking at the bigger picture.

Of course, that 6000 is not the size of the entire pool. I missed the prefix eligible. 6000 is actually 20% of 30k applicants or the tentative number of applicants above 450 at any point in time when the pool is in steady state equilibrium. My calculations are contingent on that steady state of the pool so the number of people exiting and entering is naturally factored into the analysis. As per my calculations, the cutoff would come down whenever there are back to back draws. And we've seen that being true from March.

My analysis also suggests that, in the absence of back to back draws, cutoff won't fall drastically because there are enough applicants available in the pool. This is a widely shared opinion on the forum as well. There should be a sub 450 draw before next March but I don't anticipate the cutoff to fall below 440.

I anticipate the cutoff to fall below 440, before March 2016.
We will wait and see ;D