19th draw - what could be the lowest score

[sivas1981]

I am at 446 waiting for the draw and to get an ITA.... 17th and 18th draws were of 450 scores.... Hopefully 19th draw is sooner and lowest score also becomes lesser by 5 points or so....

 

[Aragorn165]

I hope it comes down to 440...

 

[Pascal.H]

446 I Guess

 

[amanaapj2000]

I am at 448, may hope for the best

 

[One_Topsy]

I really hope for your sakes they bring it down to 446.

I am at 401 hahahahaha!

 

[number411]

I did some analysis of the data provided by CIC on express entry draw between 18th Sept till Oct 2nd. What I found is interesting.

In the draw of 18th Sep with cut-off of 450, all profiles with 450+ scores would have been cleared. In 2nd Oct draw of 450 cut-off, there were 1530 ITAs, which means all of these were created in the intervening 14 days, that gives a rate of 109 450+ profiles per day. If the same rate continues, then in the next draw on 16th Oct, there will be again 1530 profiles above 450+ points. And this can continue for ever.

The key question is - Is the addition of 109 450+ profiles per day a reasonable rate?

Let us try to look at a bigger sample size of 6 months from Jan till July 6, given by Reference 1.

By 6th July, there were 2,181 profiles with points greater than 450, and 12, 928 ITAs already issued with minimum cut-off of 453. So, we know that from Jan 1 till July 6, there are only 15,109 450+ profiles added into the system in these 187 days, so the rate is about 81 per day.

Hence, we can safely assume that the rate is about 80-85 and not 109 per day. If CIC wants to issue 1500 ITAs again, with a cut-off of 450, they can't have a draw on Oct 16th. Either they have to wait another week, in which case at 85 per day, the number of 450+ profiles will be 1785 and so the cut-off will be a bit higher than 450, say 463 or so. Or if they want to increase the rate of ITAs and have a draw on 16th, then at this rate they get only 1185 ITAs so either they issue this many or reduce by a few points and issue 1500 ITAs again.

In summary the lowest score depends on how many 450+ profiles get added in these days till the next draw (is it 80 per day or 100 per day).. and how many ITAs the CIC wants to give out.. and after how many days the next draw actually happens.

The best case scenario for us, is a draw happening on Oct 9th and 1500 ITAs issued again. This would mean the cut-off definitely falls to 440 or so.



Till Oct 2nd, CIC has given 23,548 ITAs in 9 months and 18 draws, that averages to about 2,616 per month and 1308 per draw.

References:
1. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015 DOT asp
2. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/express-entry/rounds DOT asp

 

[rafzy]

447 and waiting

 

[mead]

I did some analysis of the data provided by CIC on express entry draw between 18th Sept till Oct 2nd. What I found is interesting.

In the draw of 18th Sep with cut-off of 450, all profiles with 450+ scores would have been cleared. In 2nd Oct draw of 450 cut-off, there were 1530 ITAs, which means all of these were created in the intervening 14 days, that gives a rate of 109 450+ profiles per day. If the same rate continues, then in the next draw on 16th Oct, there will be again 1530 profiles above 450+ points. And this can continue for ever.

The key question is - Is the addition of 109 450+ profiles per day a reasonable rate?

Let us try to look at a bigger sample size of 6 months from Jan till July 6, given by Reference 1.

By 6th July, there were 2,181 profiles with points greater than 450, and 12, 928 ITAs already issued with minimum cut-off of 453. So, we know that from Jan 1 till July 6, there are only 15,109 450+ profiles added into the system in these 187 days, so the rate is about 81 per day.

Hence, we can safely assume that the rate is about 80-85 and not 109 per day. If CIC wants to issue 1500 ITAs again, with a cut-off of 450, they can't have a draw on Oct 16th. Either they have to wait another week, in which case at 85 per day, the number of 450+ profiles will be 1785 and so the cut-off will be a bit higher than 450, say 463 or so. Or if they want to increase the rate of ITAs and have a draw on 16th, then at this rate they get only 1185 ITAs so either they issue this many or reduce by a few points and issue 1500 ITAs again.

In summary the lowest score depends on how many 450+ profiles get added in these days till the next draw (is it 80 per day or 100 per day).. and how many ITAs the CIC wants to give out.. and after how many days the next draw actually happens.

The best case scenario for us, is a draw happening on Oct 9th and 1500 ITAs issued again. This would mean the cut-off definitely falls to 440 or so.



Till Oct 2nd, CIC has given 23,548 ITAs in 9 months and 18 draws, that averages to about 2,616 per month and 1308 per draw.

References:
1. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015 DOT asp
2. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/express-entry/rounds DOT asp

well if they skip a draw meaning if as anticipated draw on 16th does not happen then rate could go even lower and still they could get 1500 450+. so frequency of the draws matter too.

 

[purohit]

Your theory is full of assumptions. You are assuming that the pool will grow at 80 or 100 per day for 450 + profiles. This may or may not change. It can be at 50 or 150. Initially lot of people outside Canada were apprehensive of making EE profile as quite a few thought that draws will only be for profiles above the score of 600. I personally know at least 5 people who made EE profiles in the last couple of months when they saw that scores are consistently hovering around 450. The lower the score goes and the more the word spreads, more and more people will start making profiles. For someone under 30, studying or working in Canada it is not very difficult to score 450. And there are lot of such students in Canada.

On the flip side, June and July were months where lots of students graduate in Canada and increase their points. Also lot of pnp were issued previously and quite a few provinces who seem to have saturated their quota for this year. So in the next few months there might not be many with score above 450.

Then there is election coming up in a few days and a change in govt. could see a change in targets for 2016 to be declared in November.

The fact is all these calculations are good for speculation but there are so many factors that no one can safely conclude anything.

It all depends on how many PR residents CIC wants. That will determine the frequency of draws and number of ITAs issued.

I did some analysis of the data provided by CIC on express entry draw between 18th Sept till Oct 2nd. What I found is interesting.

In the draw of 18th Sep with cut-off of 450, all profiles with 450+ scores would have been cleared. In 2nd Oct draw of 450 cut-off, there were 1530 ITAs, which means all of these were created in the intervening 14 days, that gives a rate of 109 450+ profiles per day. If the same rate continues, then in the next draw on 16th Oct, there will be again 1530 profiles above 450+ points. And this can continue for ever.

The key question is - Is the addition of 109 450+ profiles per day a reasonable rate?

Let us try to look at a bigger sample size of 6 months from Jan till July 6, given by Reference 1.

By 6th July, there were 2,181 profiles with points greater than 450, and 12, 928 ITAs already issued with minimum cut-off of 453. So, we know that from Jan 1 till July 6, there are only 15,109 450+ profiles added into the system in these 187 days, so the rate is about 81 per day.

Hence, we can safely assume that the rate is about 80-85 and not 109 per day. If CIC wants to issue 1500 ITAs again, with a cut-off of 450, they can't have a draw on Oct 16th. Either they have to wait another week, in which case at 85 per day, the number of 450+ profiles will be 1785 and so the cut-off will be a bit higher than 450, say 463 or so. Or if they want to increase the rate of ITAs and have a draw on 16th, then at this rate they get only 1185 ITAs so either they issue this many or reduce by a few points and issue 1500 ITAs again.

In summary the lowest score depends on how many 450+ profiles get added in these days till the next draw (is it 80 per day or 100 per day).. and how many ITAs the CIC wants to give out.. and after how many days the next draw actually happens.

The best case scenario for us, is a draw happening on Oct 9th and 1500 ITAs issued again. This would mean the cut-off definitely falls to 440 or so.



Till Oct 2nd, CIC has given 23,548 ITAs in 9 months and 18 draws, that averages to about 2,616 per month and 1308 per draw.

References:
1. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015 DOT asp
2. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/express-entry/rounds DOT asp

 

[redfox05]

Yup I agree. There are a lot of assumptions there.
I know it's all to help, and to make sense of the unknown, but we have to be careful and not get hopes up on calculations done via assumptions. As a lot of people may take it to be fact.

As purohit rightly said, it depends on the CIC's plans for current and future intake, which could change at any time. Up or down. Interesting about the idea that not many people had made profiles thinking they did not stand a chance when all the 600+ were being accepted, and then now we might get more people making profiles. Yes, could make sense I guess.

Having said that, as long as all people here know these are just wild guesses, I'll make mine too. I'll guess at 445 (but it could just as easily be 471 too).
I'll hope for all that its the lower one

Your theory is full of assumptions. You are assuming that the pool will grow at 80 or 100 per day for 450 + profiles. This may or may not change. It can be at 50 or 150. Initially lot of people outside Canada were apprehensive of making EE profile as quite a few thought that draws will only be for profiles above the score of 600. I personally know at least 5 people who made EE profiles in the last couple of months when they saw that scores are consistently hovering around 450. The lower the score goes and the more the word spreads, more and more people will start making profiles. For someone under 30, studying or working in Canada it is not very difficult to score 450. And there are lot of such students in Canada.

On the flip side, June and July were months where lots of students graduate in Canada and increase their points. Also lot of pnp were issued previously and quite a few provinces who seem to have saturated their quota for this year. So in the next few months there might not be many with score above 450.

Then there is election coming up in a few days and a change in govt. could see a change in targets for 2016 to be declared in November.

The fact is all these calculations are good for speculation but there are so many factors that no one can safely conclude anything.

It all depends on how many PR residents CIC wants. That will determine the frequency of draws and number of ITAs issued.

 

[Lammawitch]

Some may be interested to read how immigration targets are planned and calculated:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/ips/

And
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/backgrounders/2011/2011-07-11.asp

Of note, the differences between government planned immigration levels, & CIC operational targets.

 

[number411]

Your theory is full of assumptions. You are assuming that the pool will grow at 80 or 100 per day for 450 + profiles. This may or may not change. It can be at 50 or 150.

It all depends on how many PR residents CIC wants. That will determine the frequency of draws and number of ITAs issued.

Both 80 and 109 are based on data provided by CIC, not a wild guess from me. Over 187 days, it was 80 450+ profiles per day. As per your estimate of new profile creators, maybe the rate has gone up to 109 last fortnight and may continue to rise, who knows.

I agree with your conclusion.

 

[purohit]

Both 80 and 109 are based on data provided by CIC, not a wild guess from me. Over 187 days, it was 80 450+ profiles per day. As per your estimate of new profile creators, maybe the rate has gone up to 109 last fortnight and may continue to rise, who knows.

I agree with your conclusion.

Ofcourse I understand that those are facts. But those are facts for the past. And that is why i wrote that you are assuming it will grow at either of these rate in the future. Which may or may not be true (for the future).

I think the new immigration targets (in Nov) and which party forms govt. in the upcoming election will give us a clearer picture for calculations.

 

[krishna_1979]

I did some analysis of the data provided by CIC on express entry draw between 18th Sept till Oct 2nd. What I found is interesting.

In the draw of 18th Sep with cut-off of 450, all profiles with 450+ scores would have been cleared. In 2nd Oct draw of 450 cut-off, there were 1530 ITAs, which means all of these were created in the intervening 14 days, that gives a rate of 109 450+ profiles per day. If the same rate continues, then in the next draw on 16th Oct, there will be again 1530 profiles above 450+ points. And this can continue for ever.

The key question is - Is the addition of 109 450+ profiles per day a reasonable rate?

Let us try to look at a bigger sample size of 6 months from Jan till July 6, given by Reference 1.

By 6th July, there were 2,181 profiles with points greater than 450, and 12, 928 ITAs already issued with minimum cut-off of 453. So, we know that from Jan 1 till July 6, there are only 15,109 450+ profiles added into the system in these 187 days, so the rate is about 81 per day.

Hence, we can safely assume that the rate is about 80-85 and not 109 per day. If CIC wants to issue 1500 ITAs again, with a cut-off of 450, they can't have a draw on Oct 16th. Either they have to wait another week, in which case at 85 per day, the number of 450+ profiles will be 1785 and so the cut-off will be a bit higher than 450, say 463 or so. Or if they want to increase the rate of ITAs and have a draw on 16th, then at this rate they get only 1185 ITAs so either they issue this many or reduce by a few points and issue 1500 ITAs again.

In summary the lowest score depends on how many 450+ profiles get added in these days till the next draw (is it 80 per day or 100 per day).. and how many ITAs the CIC wants to give out.. and after how many days the next draw actually happens.

The best case scenario for us, is a draw happening on Oct 9th and 1500 ITAs issued again. This would mean the cut-off definitely falls to 440 or so.



Till Oct 2nd, CIC has given 23,548 ITAs in 9 months and 18 draws, that averages to about 2,616 per month and 1308 per draw.

References:
1. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015 DOT asp
2. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/express-entry/rounds DOT asp

Good analysis.

 

[krishna_1979]

Your theory is full of assumptions. You are assuming that the pool will grow at 80 or 100 per day for 450 + profiles. This may or may not change. It can be at 50 or 150. Initially lot of people outside Canada were apprehensive of making EE profile as quite a few thought that draws will only be for profiles above the score of 600. I personally know at least 5 people who made EE profiles in the last couple of months when they saw that scores are consistently hovering around 450. The lower the score goes and the more the word spreads, more and more people will start making profiles. For someone under 30, studying or working in Canada it is not very difficult to score 450. And there are lot of such students in Canada.

On the flip side, June and July were months where lots of students graduate in Canada and increase their points. Also lot of pnp were issued previously and quite a few provinces who seem to have saturated their quota for this year. So in the next few months there might not be many with score above 450.

Then there is election coming up in a few days and a change in govt. could see a change in targets for 2016 to be declared in November.

The fact is all these calculations are good for speculation but there are so many factors that no one can safely conclude anything.

It all depends on how many PR residents CIC wants. That will determine the frequency of draws and number of ITAs issued.

Interesting comments... didn't think from this perspective... but one this is true, the upcoming election will definitely have impact on EE.
As well as, once they clear off the backlog of previous year, their requirements for intakes would shoot up. Hoping for the best.
All the best to all of us