16th draw happening tonight - strong intuition

[bestofluck]

Because CIC hasn't done a first-Friday-of-the-month draw except in Feb and Aug. Feb 7th was an accidental draw which pulled out the exact same number of candidates as Jan 31st draw while Aug 7th happened because July had 2 back-to-back draws leaving the last 2 weekends in July with no draws so the pool had enough replenishment time by Aug 7th.

The most recent draw happened on the penultimate Friday of August and counting for 2 Friday gap till next draw leads one to conclude that CIC is likely to draw on 11th Sep (or later) but not earlier than that. Which might not be a bad thing because if they do 2 draws in September the 2nd draw will happen on 25th (with a gap of 2 weeks) and that will push the cutoff to 450 or even slightly lower than that.

It is of course possible that CIC does 0 draws till January 2016 or does 1 draw/month or just keeps the cutoff artificially inflated till it suits them because they have already achieved the lower limit (15) of their anticipated draw numbers for 2015.

Not trying to scare anyone but these are the facts - I'm waiting for an ITA myself and my score (450+) has taken a beating from the last time around.

That's no Logic explained . Either it takes place in 7 days or 14 days or 21 days or 35 days. its all guessing. just watch today if it dosen't happen may be next Friday. but what is the logic it has not happened in first week except feba nd Aug . 2 times it has heppend is not enuf

 

[Asivad Anac]

That's no Logic explained . Either it takes place in 7 days or 14 days or 21 days or 35 days. its all guessing. just watch today if it dosen't happen may be next Friday. but what is the logic it has not happened in first week except feba nd Aug . 2 times it has heppend is not enuf

The logic is that both of those were aberrations. CIC will conduct the draws when they have sufficient people to invite at a high-enough cutoff. And they will drop the cutoff ONLY if there aren't enough people in the pool. Because they did the last draw on 21st Aug, the interim gap of 14 days isn't probably enough for the pool to refill to the levels CIC expects.

Think about it from CIC's perspective. They are likely to be selective and conservative on this (as with most other things Canadian). I will be pleasantly surprised if they have a draw tonight.

 

[rafzy]

That's no Logic explained . Either it takes place in 7 days or 14 days or 21 days or 35 days. its all guessing. just watch today if it dosen't happen may be next Friday. but what is the logic it has not happened in first week except feba nd Aug . 2 times it has heppend is not enuf

Cant wait for todays draw. Hope score falls down to 440.

 

[zanny]

You don't need birth certificate under EE.

Unlikely to have a draw tomorrow but, with that score of 471, you are likely to get an ITA within the next 1-2 draws. All the best!

Asivad,

Thanks for your guidance. They indeed don't need the birth certificate.

I submitted my profile today and "Details" section says submitted and not active. Any idea how much time does it take to change to "active"?

 

[Asivad Anac]

Asivad,

Thanks for your guidance. They indeed don't need the birth certificate.

I submitted my profile today and "Details" section says submitted and not active. Any idea how much time does it take to change to "active"?

Can take up to 24 hours.

 

[bestofluck]

Cant wait for todays draw. Hope score falls down to 440.

My guess is 441

 

[JonesM]

I just spoke to Stephen Harper, CRS will fall 300 tonight because Christmas is near... 8)

 

[Rabbitfoot]

I just spoke to Stephen Harper, CRS will fall 300 tonight because Christmas is near... 8)

 

[mead]

I just spoke to Stephen Harper, CRS will fall 300 tonight because Christmas is near... 8)

lol did he also say Santa is real.