16 Draw Unite:prediction of draw, Number of Draws . crs 400 +

[mushej]

Exact words from the report

"At present, the pool is growing by about 1,500 persons per week. Over the coming months, the size of the pool is expected to remain large offering a broad range of candidates from around the world who are ready to contribute to Canada and the Canadian labour market."

My words do not contradict exact words from the report.

At present, the pool is growing by about 1,500 persons per week.
-at the time of report

Over the coming months, the size of the pool is expected to remain large offering a broad range of candidates from around the world who are ready to contribute to Canada and the Canadian labor market.
- 41,218 is large pool 100 profiles as well is large pool if we compare it with 10.

I think the goal of this pool to create working pool like in Australia for choosing the best candidates needed for Canada, some changes will done soon in selection process to regulate pool.

455 was due to OOPNP. OOPNP will be reason to rapid decrease of score in the near future from 455 to 400.
Due to OOPNP we have many double profiles as well. Created before and after June 1.

 

[manidhatt]

The only thing I will say is if you're saying that 1500 people join every month that is incorrect.

14th draw on Aug 07 Cut off 471 ITA 1402. That means on 08 Aug there was no one left above 471.

Next draw was on Aug 21 and cut off was 456 ITA 1523. Now this means that within those 14 days 1523 joined the pool WHO WERE ABOVE 456 and who knows how many more joined who were under 456.

1500 people joining every month is a very small number.

 

[qx43]

I don't think the cutoff is going to come down rapidly at all but I think it has the chance to decrease. Here is how I look at based on the mid-year report.

From 3/20 to 6/26 there is rough average of 41% of the people being issued ITAs having less than 600 points. If we assume that every week the 1500 who enter the pool have a similar points distribution as the entire pool had in the mid-year report, then roughly 5% are above 450. This means about 320 people above 450 enter the pool a month.

If the CIC does a pull of 1500 candidates every month with let's say a 30% composition of people below 600 points, then that's 450 people leaving the pool with points above 450. So to me, we are losing about 130 odd people in the 450+ range every month.

So ultimately there is the potential (based roughly on the data) for it to drop below 450 but it will do so very slowly. There is also the chance that 450 has been marked as a line that they will not drop beneath. So if you are very close to 450, you can probably be hopefully for the next 6 months. If you are not close to 450, you will need more points.

 

[Hhh466]

Don't mean to be a party pooper but it seems from the ongoing trend that they are drawing a line at 450 points, for now at least. This is worst for international students who have spent at least a hundred thousand dollar and are now being capped at approximately 444 points. I really hope the scores drop below 450 or there goes the approx $10 billion that these students contribute to the economy!

 

[taffarel]

13th Jul 17 cut off 451 ITA
14th Aug 07 cut off 471 ITA 1402
15th Aug 21 cut off 456 ITA 1523

From 13th to 15th draw, its 5 weeks. ITAs 2925, average 585 profiles per week with 456 or more (a little more).
If this rate maintains, and assuming there are around 100 candidates for each bin, CRS will stay around 456, 460.

LETS see. Trying to improve my IELTS score meanwhile.

 

[Olrdude]

They might increase number of ita's beginning in September or October since we will be well into 2016 immigration targets territory.

 

[qx43]

13th Jul 17 cut off 451 ITA
14th Aug 07 cut off 471 ITA 1402
15th Aug 21 cut off 456 ITA 1523

From 13th to 15th draw, its 5 weeks. ITAs 2925, average 585 profiles per week with 456 or more (a little more).
If this rate maintains, and assuming there are around 100 candidates for each bin, CRS will stay around 456, 460.

LETS see. Trying to improve my IELTS score meanwhile.

Yes, between those dates, the average was 585 profiles above 456 were selected. The point I'm trying to make is how many in that pull had points less than 600, that is no LMIA/job offer or PNP.

If we look at the mid-year data, in particular the following pull:

3/27/2015 453 1,637 20%
4/10/2015 469 925 70%
4/17/2015 453 715 41%

Between 4/17/2015 and 3/28/2015, 1640 people were invited, and using the percentages for those having more than 600 points, then there was around 700 people pulled in with greater than 452 but less than 600 points. On 3/27/2015 the pull cleared out everyone having more than 452 points, and then in the next 3 weeks only 700 were added, that means roughly (in this case) only 233 entered the pool each week having greater than 452 points and less than 600 points in that span. So with that and making a guess (devoid of any other possible factors) I think more people are coming out of the 450-500 range than are going in based on the data we've seen.

 

[bestofluck]

At the most an outseider could score is 481...this is practically not achievable

this means 110 + 135+ 136 + 100 .....481 that any outsider can score
when crs goes to 471 or 481 it means no outsider got ITA only canada exp class got it

so that means only in 3 rounds there are some outsiders getting ITA when crs was 451 463 and


now they wil l increase of intakes and so crs will definitely come down below 450 . IF the draw by chance happens on 28th August crs go down to 426 or else if it happens on 5th sep it may be again 15 points less that is 436.

yes there is back log of applications from old system but they still have some quota left for 2015 which means they increase intake to 2000 per draw...thats the trick which wil work for all those who are below 450. no logic works saying they dont want to go below 450. it cannot be so because all outsiders and mostly between 440 and 450

All those who have got PT from Ontario will get 600 points after 4-5 months. the dont get 600 immediately. so dont worry guys there are very few to get 6000 through LMIA its very difficult, The only reason crs was not going below 450 was they wanted al canada class to apply and come. than they will now release foreign workers. And it sounds okay those who already work in canada must be preferred. They ar enot a huge amount of people they are just few., so 2016 is great for all above 400

 

[bestofluck]

Yes, between those dates, the average was 585 profiles above 456 were selected. The point I'm trying to make is how many in that pull had points less than 600, that is no LMIA/job offer or PNP.

If we look at the mid-year data, in particular the following pull:

3/27/2015 453 1,637 20%
4/10/2015 469 925 70%
4/17/2015 453 715 41%

Between 4/17/2015 and 3/28/2015, 1640 people were invited, and using the percentages for those having more than 600 points, then there was around 700 people pulled in with greater than 452 but less than 600 points. On 3/27/2015 the pull cleared out everyone having more than 452 points, and then in the next 3 weeks only 700 were added, that means roughly (in this case) only 233 entered the pool each week having greater than 452 points and less than 600 points in that span. So with that and making a guess (devoid of any other possible factors) I think more people are coming out of the 450-500 range than are going in based on the data we've seen.

you are absolutely right. very few people added, and to get 600 is not easy. OONP give you 600 after 6 months. LMIA is very strict now many get cancelled. and foriegn workers can only get average 445 marks. so they have to go down below 445.

445 is average because 481 is highest any foriegner can get. which means scoring ful marks 110 +135+136+100 which is pracically impossible. so average is 445 . that emans all those above 445 are canada class and no fooreigner has got ITA.....

 

[bestofluck]

Why do you keep saying this? It's simply wrong. The maximum one can achieve without Canadian work experience is 520 points.

481 is very well achievable. All that's needed is CLB 10 in the English test, a Master's degree and being between the age of 20 to 29 with three years' work experience.

Age 110
education 135 is highest
IELTS 136
others 100 max makes only 481 this is for indivudual for sopouse i dont consider at this stage. 520? how can u get please explain

i have clb10. we are given marks out of 500 only how can it be 520?

 

[kateg]

Age 110
education 135 is highest
IELTS 136
others 100 max makes only 481 this is for indivudual for sopouse i dont consider at this stage. 520? how can u get please explain

i have clb10. we are given marks out of 500 only how can it be 520?

Add French. That gets you to 505 points. With a PhD instead of a Masters, you can get up to 520 points.

 

[adele2011]

I hope that CRS will come down to 420-430. Fingers and everything else is crossed

 

[hanimorrar]

I also dont expect any draw this month and that's why i've almost prepared my PNP application to be sent by this weeks end incase no draw happens or i am unable to score an ITA.

Hey Rafzi,

Could you enlighten me on which provinces are you planning to apply for PNP? I thought all provinces send you an ITA like Ontario?

Thanks,

 

[bestofluck]

Maximum as a single applicant is 600 points (without valid job offer or PNP).

Maximum a single applicant can get for Canadian experience is 80 points.

600 - 80 = 520

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/express-entry/grid-crs.asp

PLEASE CHECK YOUR FACTS, THERE ARE MANY CALCULATORS AVAILABLE TO CALCULATE. OK

 

[bestofluck]

I hope that CRS will come down to 420-430. Fingers and everything else is crossed

yes it has to go. it will remain between 420 and 470 in comming future. thats right guess.