16 Draw Unite:prediction of draw, Number of Draws . crs 400 +

[bestofluck]

That's me. The pessimist, completely wrong.

Kateg u are wrong The draw happened beyond Friday...Wait and watch the optimistic approach of mine. It will go below 450 very soon.
I was the only to guess draw beyod friday.

 

[quarko]

Wait and watch the optimistic approach of mine. It will go below 450 very soon.

Meh, not this year. Looking at the latest CRS cutoffs, it is obvious they are artificially cutting it off at ~450. Damn, look at those scores, delays are random as hell (sometimes 1 week, sometimes 2, sometimes 3 weeks, etc.) but the score stays constantly at 450-460, and ITA count stays constant at 1450-1600. Obviously, CRS is fixed, at least for this year, at 450. I believe they did not make that a solid rule about it yet because the system is young and they did not know at which score will it stabilize. Therefore, if election winners do not change the system, I believe that we will get a new-year announcement about CRS fixed at 450 (or maybe 440 for some buffer).

Also, as about why the draw happened on tuesday, the reason is pretty obvious - they have completed processing the OPNP entries, and know that the pool will get flooded the next draw with those. So, they made the draw just before putting all those OPNPs into the pool.

 

[bestofluck]

Meh, not this year. Looking at the latest CRS cutoffs, it is obvious they are artificially cutting it off at ~450. Damn, look at those scores, delays are random as hell (sometimes 1 week, sometimes 2, sometimes 3 weeks, etc.) but the score stays constantly at 450-460, and ITA count stays constant at 1450-1600. Obviously, CRS is fixed, at least for this year, at 450. I believe they did not make that a solid rule about it yet because the system is young and they did not know at which score will it stabilize. Therefore, if election winners do not change the system, I believe that we will get a new-year announcement about CRS fixed at 450 (or maybe 440 for some buffer).

Also, as about why the draw happened on tuesday, the reason is pretty obvious - they have completed processing the OPNP entries, and know that the pool will get flooded the next draw with those. So, they made the draw just before putting all those OPNPs into the pool.

I agree but one thing is sure. If they dont decrease the level below 450 the new people entering the pool in 2016 will reduce drastically. Who would enter? once they see the statistics of previous year no one would enter. So before they take out yearly bulletin they have to reduce the scores below 450 to some extent. to keep the EE live. or else it will just become the same as old one first come first because those getting job or lmia or province first will get ITA.
So they will reduce to 420 or near 400 once before December 2015. Other wise EE will be a disaster. And moreover All province will have to select from Pool and not EOI. otherwise all getting PNPs will also get ITA and hey wont continue with PNP. this will make process slow. they have to bifurcate from here only and fix up / like all above get ITA. All above 420 and below 450 hget OONP and all between 400 and 420 get NBNP and like that
So u can know from scores which province u will get. All those got OONP are getting ITA now and wasting 1500 $ !

 

[Alexios07]

I agree but one thing is sure. If they dont decrease the level below 450 the new people entering the pool in 2016 will reduce drastically. Who would enter? once they see the statistics of previous year no one would enter. So before they take out yearly bulletin they have to reduce the scores below 450 to some extent. to keep the EE live. or else it will just become the same as old one first come first because those getting job or lmia or province first will get ITA.
So they will reduce to 420 or near 400 once before December 2015. Other wise EE will be a disaster. And moreover All province will have to select from Pool and not EOI. otherwise all getting PNPs will also get ITA and hey wont continue with PNP. this will make process slow. they have to bifurcate from here only and fix up / like all above get ITA. All above 420 and below 450 hget OONP and all between 400 and 420 get NBNP and like that
So u can know from scores which province u will get. All those got OONP are getting ITA now and wasting 1500 $ !

Are you seriously think that people won't submit new profiles in 2016 just because the csr cut off are too high? and EE would be dead? No matter how low their scores are, people will keep submitting new profiles. Have you read kateg's argument ? By dropping the score to 400 would increase it to 10,951 new PR applicants, that's just too crazy. There are several thousands of highly skilled applicants out there with more than 5 years of experiences from all over the world, so there's no chance Canada will drop its expectations any time soon. All your arguments are flawed.

 

[mapledipped]

Are you seriously think that people won't submit new profiles in 2016 just because the csr cut off are too high? and EE would be dead? No matter how low their scores are, people will keep submitting new profiles. Have you read kateg's argument ? By dropping the score to 400 would increase it to 10,951 new PR applicants, that's just too crazy. There are several thousands of highly skilled applicants out there with more than 5 years of experiences from all over the world, so there's no chance Canada will drop its expectations any time soon. All your arguments are flawed.

i agree with you:

>>there's a huge number of people with scores 400-450, and every month more and more people are submitting applications that fall in this bracket.

>> 2015 profiles are valid for a year so it's all good, there will still be a ton of people in the pool even if there are less new applicants in 2016 (although i also dont think there will be reduction in applicants next year as ee takes shorter time to process so more appealing to those wanting to immigrate)

not saying that ee is perfect, it's still in its infancy so it does seem at little erratic... but hopefully it's all uphill from here

 

[bestofluck]

Are you seriously think that people won't submit new profiles in 2016 just because the csr cut off are too high? and EE would be dead? No matter how low their scores are, people will keep submitting new profiles. Have you read kateg's argument ? By dropping the score to 400 would increase it to 10,951 new PR applicants, that's just too crazy. There are several thousands of highly skilled applicants out there with more than 5 years of experiences from all over the world, so there's no chance Canada will drop its expectations any time soon. All your arguments are flawed.

Time will Tell. My logic will work. No matter how the number of invitees increase Its going to drop upto 430

 

[parajulirp]

I do agree with BestofLuck

Since they need to meet the Target, Backlog being reduced, at least, they need to hike the ITA, it means by not that much but by ~20 CRS.

I am not sure about number of people >430 CRS. According to Mid Year CIC EE Report [http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp], if people >450 are ~3000 a months, I guess EE profile >433 can be about additional 3000 a month (8770 people are in between 400 to 449 CRS, i.e., 1 CRS means 175 people and 175 x 18= 3000. So, if they want 6000 people a month (3000 each draw), CRS score will drop till 449-18= 431). It's all based on assumption of equal distribution of applicants from 400 to 449.

If lots of people below 425 and if few people >425, it can drop up to 420. If opposite, it can keep ~433. That means if they plan to invite about 5000 per months (2500 per draw), they need to drop CRS up to ~433. It depends on concentration/cluster/distribution patterns of CRS between 400 to 449.

I strongly believe, gradually they will increase no of ITAs, from ~1600 (Sept) to 2000 (Oct) to 2500 (Nov) & ~3000 ITA/ draw by Dec. So, by this new year, the CRS is about 430 and ITAs no will be about 3000/ draw.

Its my prediction. Mainly Backlog, New PNP nomination, distribution of CRS, Refugee Issue, Election etc can alter CRS ITA by 10%. So, by end of this Year, be ready for ITA >433.

Cheers

Raj

I guess that is reasonable. Can any mathematician/statistician predicts EE profile >430 Please based on mid Year Report

 

[nuno1313]

Highly unlikely for CRS to drop below 450 mark in the next few draws. CIC might maintain this as the cut-off bench mark. If there are not enough people in the pool above 450, my guess is that CIC will wait for new profiles that are 450+ and then do a draw. Also take in account fake/accidental profiles, people who will reject FSW for CEC and vice versa and linger around in the pool for the next draws.
Keeping faith is all you (folks below 450) can do at this point. But also try and look for methods to increase your score.

 

[kateg]

So they will reduce to 420 or near 400 once before December 2015.
...
So u can know from scores which province u will get. All those got OONP are getting ITA now and wasting 1500 $ !

You declare the score will drop near 400, then from that conclude that the people selected by the OOPNP are wasting money.

You have it backwards - the people responsible for the administration of the OOPNP know better than you do, and were unlikely to pick a score that was going to get picked in the near future.

 

[kateg]

Kateg u are wrong The draw happened beyond Friday...Wait and watch the optimistic approach of mine. It will go below 450 very soon.
I was the only to guess draw beyod friday.

Whether the draw is Tuesday or Friday is largely irrelevant. The draw isn't dropping as fast as you keep trying to tell people it will.

 

[praneet87]

Whether the draw is Tuesday or Friday is largely irrelevant. The draw isn't dropping as fast as you keep trying to tell people it will.

Well just because someone says it, doesn't mean the score is going to drop lower.

I am sitting at 444 and might get an ECA done to bump the score to 464. Even though I've been in the pool for only 2 months I don't like being delusional about the score dropping any lower. Express Entry is complete bullshit but it is what it is.

 

[bestofluck]

Whether the draw is Tuesday or Friday is largely irrelevant. The draw isn't dropping as fast as you keep trying to tell people it will.

I never said its dropping. I said it has to drop. And it will. Now u say it dosent matter draw happens on friday or tuesday than u will say it dosent matter it drops by few points. They scores dint go beyond 459 means its dropping previously it use to go upto 481 and 471 ....before dropping down.

 

[bestofluck]

Well just because someone says it, doesn't mean the score is going to drop lower.

I am sitting at 444 and might get an ECA done to bump the score to 464. Even though I've been in the pool for only 2 months I don't like being delusional about the score dropping any lower. Express Entry is complete bull*censored word* but it is what it is.

It will drop. Its good to improve scores even I am giving french exams to improve. But its just a logic that will work. It will drop at least it will drop below 450 so the norms they are holding the cut off will vanish and this will be in 2015. My guess is 444. And when it will drop you will say it was to happen one day. there cant be any strategy to hold cut off to 450. I mean I dont see any logic behind that. A person with 449 is below standard? No govt would keep any such norms where windows are closed. The always keep one window open.

 

[nuno1313]

Highly unlikely for CRS to drop below 450 mark in the next few draws..Tough pill to swallow for everyone under 450 but there might be a reason why CRS cut-off lingers above 450

 

[parajulirp]

Easy way to interpret the opinion about CRS drop or not

"In which status the member is in: Mostly negatives energy from those who are already invited, in Process, Meds or landed etc"

Logical and with positive energy from the member who is desperately waiting for Invitation.

Its obvious, those who crossed the line wants nobody crossed it to maintain their superiority..Its human nature..Superiority complex Hypothesis

The fact is Fact, what will happen will come in shape sooner...Please do not harass desperate friends with negative energy

If you guys (frontrunner) have very strong logic & calculations, go with logic and calculation.

But do not "just" mention CRS will not drop without any logic, calculation for prediction taking available data and target policy in consideration.

Mind your business to prepare for Docs and preparation to start new life in New Land. Who knows, even you start earlier, some of us can win you in long run... If you can help with logical/ calculated prediction, go for it

Try to say something positive to inspire, if you can not, do nothing..Do not waste your time...At least do not harass friends with negative comment to make friends in this forum "desperate and hopeless".

Consider your time Friends when you were in that situation.. Very long way to go..anytime you can be in trouble..if you wish bad for others, you will get it first...Please Be kind & human


Cheers